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  #161  
Old 31.01.2008, 18:41
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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I am in the process of opening 2-3 additional bank accounts. I am going to spread my savings across 3-4 Swiss bank accounts. Maybe a pointless exercise but it makes me feel safe(r). Any negative reason why I should not do that?
Unlike the UK, it seems that there is no deposit guarantee scheme in Switzerland, so little benefit there.

You minimise the scale of the potential loss should a bank holding your cash go bust - but you multiply the chance that you will be the victim of some bank going bust.

I would think it very, very unlikely indeed that a big bank like UBS or CS would become insolvent. If they did it would be in a 'financial apocalypse' scenario whereby it's The End Of The World As We Know It; In which case you'd be better investing your cash in guns & ammo, canned food, whiskey & cigarettes and a defensible habitation with a water source.
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  #162  
Old 31.01.2008, 18:42
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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one word: Plastics
Gold, oil, soft commodities, CHF and JPY currency. (I posted in another thread recently about how my Swiss Franc savings increased 10% in sterling terms over about six months)

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  #163  
Old 31.01.2008, 23:05
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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None of the panic moves we currently see by the central banks/ governments are at all aimed at helping individuals, they are there to rescue the system. It is the general public who will ultimately bear the cost of the bail-out either by paying more tax or losing the value of their salaries and savings due to inflation.
What's this the great conspiracy theory that somehow there is a big bad system run by the few for the few? By stabilizing the system they are helping individuals collectively.

Of course there a few extreme winners and a lot of big losers, but in the middle there is a comfortable 90% majority whose lifestyle and wealth has been greatly enhanced by the financial markes of the last few years.

D
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  #164  
Old 01.02.2008, 10:46
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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The sad thing is that particular management team were by far and away not cynical barbarians. The believed passionately in developing a strong business based in Newcastle, set up the NR Trust which was the second biggest charitable giver of FTSE companies. Honestly as a company director myself, I tend to think "there but for the grace of god.."

Daniel

admirable sentiment Daniel... and I would concur, except that every time the dice rolls their way, these guys beat their chest and demand that they be knighted 'master of the universe' and be paid like one ...

now that their bet turns sour, I should feel bad for them??


I don't think so
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  #165  
Old 01.02.2008, 10:52
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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He played, he lost. He deserves everything that comes at him. Lack of proper supervision is not a good reason to step outside your responsibility boundaries.
and what do you think every other trader out there is doing?
They punt... with other people's money

he played. he lost. thats not so bad... whats bad is he got caught.

and he got caught just when the SocGen management needed to get a little $ 2 billion loss off their chest...

luckily no one pays any attention to a Billion $$$ anymore
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  #166  
Old 01.02.2008, 11:35
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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What's this the great conspiracy theory that somehow there is a big bad system run by the few for the few? By stabilizing the system they are helping individuals collectively.

Of course there a few extreme winners and a lot of big losers, but in the middle there is a comfortable 90% majority whose lifestyle and wealth has been greatly enhanced by the financial markes of the last few years.

D
Nothing to do with a conspiracy. They depend on the banking system as a fundamental part of society and bailing it out at the public's expense is a given. Just reminding anyone who thinks that interest rate cuts are there to help the indebted public that this is most certainly not the case - if if suited the government they'd all go to the wall. Those cuts are there to help the banks borrow enough money to cover their losses.

The problem I have is the fact that those running the financial world are set free to gorge themselves on wealth with little regulation only to come crying, cap in hand to the governments at the end of the day when their bets finally go wrong. By all means keep a bank afloat to preserve the system but lets take steps to punish the idiots who caused it to get into that state and look at regulations to stop it happening again.

The whole rash of 'innovative financial instruments' of the last 5 or 6 years was little more than an attempt to get around existing regulation and to allow the financial organisations to make ever more and more money. They did it, the governments did nothing and surprise surprise it turned out to be a stupid idea to lend lots of money to those who couldn't pay it back. Dino's excellent post summarised the sad state of affairs really well.



The financial markets have certainly made a lot of insiders involved in them very rich indeed. But they've done little to improve the lot of anyone else in the world. Thanks to the scam of securitization we're now facing a potentially whopping depression that will hurt a lot of ordinary and poor people very hard indeed. The scumbags who caused it will however be OK as they get to walk away with the millions of dollars of bonuses they got before their ponzi scheme collapsed and in the case of the big rollers, even exit with golden parachutes worth tens of millions of dollars.
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  #167  
Old 01.02.2008, 11:58
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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Nothing to do with a conspiracy. They depend on the banking system as a fundamental part of society and bailing it out at the public's expense is a given. Just reminding anyone who thinks that interest rate cuts are there to help the indebted public that this is most certainly not the case - if if suited the government they'd all go to the wall. Those cuts are there to help the banks borrow enough money to cover their losses.

The problem I have is the fact that those running the financial world are set free to gorge themselves on wealth with little regulation only to come crying, cap in hand to the governments at the end of the day when their bets finally go wrong. By all means keep a bank afloat to preserve the system but lets take steps to punish the idiots who caused it to get into that state and look at regulations to stop it happening again.

The whole rash of 'innovative financial instruments' of the last 5 or 6 years was little more than an attempt to get around existing regulation and to allow the financial organisations to make ever more and more money. They did it, the governments did nothing and surprise surprise it turned out to be a stupid idea to lend lots of money to those who couldn't pay it back. Dino's excellent post summarised the sad state of affairs really well.



The financial markets have certainly made a lot of insiders involved in them very rich indeed. But they've done little to improve the lot of anyone else in the world. Thanks to the scam of securitization we're now facing a potentially whopping depression that will hurt a lot of ordinary and poor people very hard indeed. The scumbags who caused it will however be OK as they get to walk away with the millions of dollars of bonuses they got before their ponzi scheme collapsed and in the case of the big rollers, even exit with golden parachutes worth tens of millions of dollars.
So in the light of the arrest of the french trader for his losses, why is it not possible to prosecute employees/board members of the bank for their massive losses. Is it purely that the french trader acted without authorisation?
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  #168  
Old 01.02.2008, 11:59
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

Yes it's pretty galling to see some of the money some very average people are getting out of this. But same analogy can be applied to football players, pop stars etc. Perhaps if more of us practised football, singing or became bankers, the demand for these talents would not be as high and they wouldnt be such high prices paid for their services, except for the really exceptional talents

But I would still dispute the fact that there has been no net benefit to the rest of us from the evolution of the markets in the last few years... to our savings, house price values, pensions etc.

BTW I am very much not a banker or hedge fund manager.

Daniel
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  #169  
Old 01.02.2008, 12:02
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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So in the light of the arrest of the french trader for his losses, why is it not possible to prosecute employees/board members of the bank for their massive losses. Is it purely that the french trader acted without authorisation?
Well if it can be proved they have been negligent in their duties (including to protect the assets of the company) or behaved fraudulently they could be sued or prosecuted. See Enron et al.

However these cases are notoriously complex and the defendants can normally afford the best defense counsel.

Daniel
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  #170  
Old 01.02.2008, 15:21
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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Gold, oil, soft commodities, CHF and JPY currency. (I posted in another thread recently about how my Swiss Franc savings increased 10% in sterling terms over about six months)

So, is this the right time to convert CHF into GBP and probably have a time deposit on GBP?? (the conversion rate is 2.14 today against 2.45 last year!). Not sure, if it would drop further from 2.14 (who knows!!!)

Your opinions please.
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  #171  
Old 01.02.2008, 15:47
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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So, is this the right time to convert CHF into GBP and probably have a time deposit on GBP?? (the conversion rate is 2.14 today against 2.45 last year!). Not sure, if it would drop further from 2.14 (who knows!!!)

Your opinions please.
just don't place the deposit with Northern Rock...

or Barclays... or HSBC... or Citi...
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  #172  
Old 01.02.2008, 16:07
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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So, is this the right time to convert CHF into GBP and probably have a time deposit on GBP?? (the conversion rate is 2.14 today against 2.45 last year!). Not sure, if it would drop further from 2.14 (who knows!!!)

Your opinions please.

*Sigh*

If I knew, my profile wouldn't say "database code monkey" but "big swinging dick currency trader"

CS chart
Make a guess. Live a little
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  #173  
Old 01.02.2008, 16:24
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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*Sigh*

If I knew, my profile wouldn't say "database code monkey" but "big swinging dick currency trader"

CS chart
Make a guess. Live a little
"An internal server error occurred. We apologize for the inconvenience."

Oops. Is anyone else seeing the same?
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  #174  
Old 01.02.2008, 20:28
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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just don't place the deposit with Northern Rock...

or Barclays... or HSBC... or Citi...
Thanks dino!!! Then, where to place the deposit? Kindly advice about any place that you think is the safest
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  #175  
Old 01.02.2008, 21:08
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

Ok I will stick with my UBS account and my wife will stick with her Kantonalbank account. That should be safe enough. We split all our money 50:50 between the two accounts.

I hate the .00000000001% interst rate on my UBS savings account.
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  #176  
Old 01.02.2008, 21:23
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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<snip> By stabilizing the system they are helping individuals collectively.
(Dipping my toe in very icy water here, so no splashing, please)

It's surely not their motivation, though, right
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  #177  
Old 02.02.2008, 00:26
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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I hate the .00000000001% interst rate on my UBS savings account.
In reality the rate is somewhat higher than that.

Switzerland has historically not needed to have high interest rates - the Swiss franc did well enough without. So what you lose in interest, you gain in currency advantages. Look at the last 6 months with CHF v GBP...
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  #178  
Old 02.02.2008, 00:32
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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Look at the last 6 months with CHF v GBP...
Well... I don't disagree with your sentiment, but look at the last 5 years of GBPCHF=X. The CHF is pretty much back where it was in Feb 03.


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  #179  
Old 02.02.2008, 01:14
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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Well... I don't disagree with your sentiment, but look at the last 5 years of GBPCHF=X. The CHF is pretty much back where it was in Feb 03.


OK take 10, 15, 20 and 25 years and see which is the winner...
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  #180  
Old 02.02.2008, 01:26
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Re: Yet more sub-prime UBS woes another $10bn writedown....

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OK take 10, 15, 20 and 25 years and see which is the winner...
Absolutely, I agree again. I've got some money invested in the market/gold/pig bellies/coffee, and every time I was advised it was a min. 5 year investment. I guess if you wait long enough things will work for you. The CHF has stability in its favour, which is probably why Swiss banks can get away with 2-3% gross interest rates, whereas I was getting 6.4% gross (about 4% net) in the UK.

The UK FTSE also hasn't been that fab if you take a 7 year outlook.... What was the quote about statistics... damn lies and all that?

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