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  #81  
Old 25.07.2014, 22:52
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

According to this article the game plan with the EU may change altogether. I don't know how accurate it is or whether it is true, so don't shoot the messenger...LOL But I found it quite interesting. In some ways it makes sense.

Last edited by ProsperityJoy; 25.07.2014 at 23:10.
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Old 25.07.2014, 22:58
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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According to this article the game plan with the EU may change altogether. I don't know how accurate it is or whether it is true, so don't shoot the messenger...LOL But I found it quite interesting. In some ways it makes sense. Hint: Germany leaving the EU!
and at the same time on the internet ... from another dont know how accurate source ...Blocher declares he will give up his Swiss citizenship and will seek German citizenship go back to his ancestral Vaterland.
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  #83  
Old 25.07.2014, 23:00
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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I guess there is now a very real possibility that the bilateral agreement will be broken in the near future.
so be it then!
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Old 25.07.2014, 23:03
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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I am getting a bit bored with the constant anti-EU rhetoric in Switzerland. If Switzerland believes that it is in their interest to step out of a deal they signed with the EU regarding free movement of people, they should just do that. But then they should live with the consequences instead of blaming the EU. It's not the EU that asked to change the terms and conditions.
I completely agree - it's Switzerland's fault. The bilateral treaties were poorly negotiated with no means to curb mass immigration. However, appropriate steps to correct that are being taken.
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Old 25.07.2014, 23:34
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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There was an interview with Blocher in NZZ yesterday and he still claims that the EU is contractually obliged to renegotiate.
Well, if one party thinks the other party does not stick to its contractual obligations the usual way of handling things if you can't get the other party to agree with your position is to take the other party to court. The problem for Mr. Blocher and the SVP is that the court would be a non-Swiss court. And these guys are strongly opposed against non-Swiss courts deciding on matters affecting Switzerland.
Tough luck.
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Old 25.07.2014, 23:54
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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If CH is concerned about too much immigration, then just stop offering tax breaks to foreign companies
well that wouldn't be a wise thing to do in the competitive market-
CH just has to admit its economy depends on immigration, and companies doing business within EU; which then allows swiss people to get very high salaries ...this is a fragile equation and I think Switzerland is dead if its business with EU drops and other more "EU friendly" countries take advantage from the swiss withdrawal from EU...
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Old 26.07.2014, 00:17
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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CH just has to admit its economy depends on immigration.
Not CH, just SVP/UDC.

There is nothing wrong with any Swiss, incl SVP/UDC defending the interests of the Swiss. There is nothing wrong with the EU defending the interests of the EU - those interests are in written in a letter. Things are clear. It's only the start. I was quite impressed by Burkhalter on the RTS news today, where he clearly said that they have now six months to do their homework, one year (2015) to get it right in the council, one year to get it through the parliament (2016) and then a vote with the solution(s) and alternatives.
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Old 26.07.2014, 00:36
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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Not CH, just SVP/UDC.

There is nothing wrong with any Swiss, incl SVP/UDC defending the interests of the Swiss. There is nothing wrong with the EU defending the interests of the EU - those interests are in written in a letter. Things are clear. It's only the start. I was quite impressed by Burkhalter on the RTS news today, where he clearly said that they have now six months to do their homework, one year (2015) to get it right in the council, one year to get it through the parliament (2016) and then a vote with the solution(s) and alternatives.
That's cutting it tight if you ask me. Suppose, as others are suggesting, that the EU refuses point blank to renegotiate anything at all? Then even the smartest of solutions and alternatives falls on deaf ears. On the othe hand, if they are prepared to negotiate, then this whole discussion is pointless, as that's precisely what the SVP want.
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Old 26.07.2014, 00:48
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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That's cutting it tight if you ask me. Suppose, as others are suggesting, that the EU refuses point blank to renegotiate anything at all? Then even the smartest of solutions and alternatives falls on deaf ears. On the othe hand, if they are prepared to negotiate, then this whole discussion is pointless, as that's precisely what the SVP want.
If the things are solved within Switzerland, there may be no need at all to
renegotiate anything.
The vote will ask if the people want to save the bilateral agreements.

People will be informed of all the consequences of a Yes/No vote this time.

Anyway, for what it concerns research, waiting until 2016 plainly sucks.
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Old 26.07.2014, 01:18
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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Well, if one party thinks the other party does not stick to its contractual obligations the usual way of handling things if you can't get the other party to agree with your position is to take the other party to court. The problem for Mr. Blocher and the SVP is that the court would be a non-Swiss court. And these guys are strongly opposed against non-Swiss courts deciding on matters affecting Switzerland.
Tough luck.
Well actually before getting that far, one would need to point out where in the agreement this requirement to renegotiate is included... otherwise you would not even get the court to even consider the case...
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Old 26.07.2014, 01:35
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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That's cutting it tight if you ask me. Suppose, as others are suggesting, that the EU refuses point blank to renegotiate anything at all? Then even the smartest of solutions and alternatives falls on deaf ears. On the othe hand, if they are prepared to negotiate, then this whole discussion is pointless, as that's precisely what the SVP want.
There will be no negotiation with the EU, they have been very consisted about this right from the start - we have three choices: break the agreement and walk away, accept the current agreement or apply for full membership.

Any agreement with Switzerland that would involve a limitation on the free movement of people would likely require a treaty change which would mean referenda in Ireland, France, Denmark to mention a few... and that is just not going to happen.

At this stage I expect the next time we vote we will be asked to decide on some combination of those three options.
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Old 26.07.2014, 01:46
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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That's cutting it tight if you ask me. Suppose, as others are suggesting, that the EU refuses point blank to renegotiate anything at all?
Good question. Nobody knows per datum. The EU states its stance first. It's like the Swiss stating their stance with the latest referendum. I called it starting point. The EU doesn't want an internal debate about the Swiss because Brussel knows that would be opening the door to endless arguments. The only common ground the EU might be able to find due to its procedures is to refuse any second round on anything because a successful first round is a miracle in the first place. The bilaterals might have been such a first round.

Worse case scenario: The EU keep refusing any negotiation because the problem is the quota in itself, not a given specific number. As number=limitation, it doesn't matter whether the limitation limits anything in practice, what counts is that the limitation is conceptually build in which is a contradiction to the states treaties as they stand. So what? Well, the Swiss voted one time for the concept, one time against the same concept… if EU stands strong on said concept, the Swiss will have to vote a third time: it's everything or nothing. It is totally possible, as Burkhalter reminded the citizens today in the RTS news at 19:30 on telly.

In their wildest dreams, the SVP/UDC want all bridges to be cut with EU because they imagine that there always will be people who want to come and work in Switzerland so that they can select as they want. I don't know whether they are right or wrong, but they are definitely convinced that they are right and don't doubt one minute of the attractiveness and prosperity of an isolated switzerland. They do what they have to do within the political system to get what they want through referenda. It is legal and legitimate by Swiss standard. One can't fight it after the referenda, it's too late.

However: in a situation where there are two contradicting referenda, there is no way the Swiss population can leave the pat situation. It must be either or. The reason the SVP/UDC is quiet at the moment is that they are thinking how they can prepare for an easier win on the next referendum because the EU reminded them that the latest referendum in date does not erase the treaties accepted in previous referenda. That's new to an SVP/UDC mind. They need time to process that. Nothing decided yet in any way, it's thinking and strategy time, hence silence. It can't be any different.
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Old 26.07.2014, 02:35
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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Other Swiss may disagree with you.
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So?

They should have voted then.

Tom
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They can freely move a few kilometers away, and will live in their paradise land.

I don't think it's difficult, we are only surrounded by Europeans countries...
If these bilateral agreements with the EU get broken, that might not be as easy as you think, and a lot of Swiss who thought this vote was only about immigration might reconsider if they realise this vote means it will be much harder for them and their children to travel to and get jobs in EU countries.
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Old 26.07.2014, 13:01
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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There are 715.000 Swiss living abroad. 60% of those in the EU... without bilaterals would they be treated like any other non-EU foreigner in Europe - which would cause quite some issues for them I guess for their employment all the way to permit situation.
Over 70% of the Swiss living abroad are double citizens.

AFAIR the contracts actually mention that people who migrated before a potential cancelling of the contract would not affected by it. That's also the reason why foreigners currently living in Switzerland will not be affected by the vote.

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The simple truth is that Switzerland needs Europe far more than the reverse.
An often heard argument which makes only sense in theory. Switzerland is obviously much smaller than the EU in terms of population, economy and international influence - but that's not what important. That's like discussing which party is profiting more from the symbiosis from the sea anemone and the clown fish. Each of them could live without the other, but it would be much worse for both.


The flexibility the EU politicians have shown towards Russia and the U.S. within the last year to avoid economic turmoil is amazing. They were bending over backwards to avoid the slightest negative impact on the EU economy no matter how grave the delict. And have you seen what happened in Portugal some days ago? The financial markets are very nervous. The EU financial crisis has not been resolved, it has been centralised.

Switzerland might not be a market as big as the U.S or a important supplier of energy as Russia, but Switzerland is very much entangled with the last remaining working economies in the EU and a very important financial centre. Switzerland is behind the U.S, China and Russia the 4th most important trading partner of the EU. And let's not even talk about the number of direct investments in the EU or the amount of European bonds at the SNB, it's importance as energy hub, for the transport of goods or what sign strong repercussions would do to the financial markets.


The EU is in it's biggest crisis since it's existence and they will not have recovered in 3 years. They will for sure impose some repercussions, but they can simply not afford too strong ones. Actually I don't count on this initiative being implemented in the end. Everything points to a second vote taking place or something less drastic being implemented in the end, but this whole who-needs-whom-more discussion is just pointless. Everybody involved is too opportunistic and too concerned about economic impacts to do anything stupid and endanger the symbiosis.
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Old 26.07.2014, 15:10
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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Over 70% of the Swiss living abroad are double citizens.

AFAIR the contracts actually mention that people who migrated before a potential cancelling of the contract would not affected by it. That's also the reason why foreigners currently living in Switzerland will not be affected by the vote.



An often heard argument which makes only sense in theory. Switzerland is obviously much smaller than the EU in terms of population, economy and international influence - but that's not what important. That's like discussing which party is profiting more from the symbiosis from the sea anemone and the clown fish. Each of them could live without the other, but it would be much worse for both.


The flexibility the EU politicians have shown towards Russia and the U.S. within the last year to avoid economic turmoil is amazing. They were bending over backwards to avoid the slightest negative impact on the EU economy no matter how grave the delict. And have you seen what happened in Portugal some days ago? The financial markets are very nervous. The EU financial crisis has not been resolved, it has been centralised.

Switzerland might not be a market as big as the U.S or a important supplier of energy as Russia, but Switzerland is very much entangled with the last remaining working economies in the EU and a very important financial centre. Switzerland is behind the U.S, China and Russia the 4th most important trading partner of the EU. And let's not even talk about the number of direct investments in the EU or the amount of European bonds at the SNB, it's importance as energy hub, for the transport of goods or what sign strong repercussions would do to the financial markets.


The EU is in it's biggest crisis since it's existence and they will not have recovered in 3 years. They will for sure impose some repercussions, but they can simply not afford too strong ones. Actually I don't count on this initiative being implemented in the end. Everything points to a second vote taking place or something less drastic being implemented in the end, but this whole who-needs-whom-more discussion is just pointless. Everybody involved is too opportunistic and too concerned about economic impacts to do anything stupid and endanger the symbiosis.
Switzerland is 1/25th of the EU. 4% of expenses are more than affordable.

Elections just passed, Junker was elected. Junker.

What crisis, it was a cold, it passed.
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Old 26.07.2014, 15:51
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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Switzerland is 1/25th of the EU. 4% of expenses are more than affordable.
If you say so...

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Elections just passed, Junker was elected. Junker.
Ah yes, Junker.

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What crisis, it was a cold, it passed.
If you repeat it often enough you might start to believe it yourself. The fundamental data looks very different. The risk has just been moved from the periphery to Frankfurt. That's as clear as day.
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Old 26.07.2014, 16:29
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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[
An often heard argument which makes only sense in theory. Switzerland is obviously much smaller than the EU in terms of population, economy and international influence - but that's not what important. That's like discussing which party is profiting more from the symbiosis from the sea anemone and the clown fish. Each of them could live without the other, but it would be much worse for both...
Unfortunately the argument that the EU will be flexible with Switzerland because both sides need each other only really stacks up if the only consideration is economic. Yes the EU will feel it if the bilateral agreements with Switzerland are broken (although not as much as Switzerland will) but the political impact of renegotiation will be much much bigger. If the EU lets Switzerland have quotas, then other countries with isolationist tendencies and bigger economies (eg the UK) will also start demanding concessions and the very foundations of the EU will be undermined.

I simply don't see Brussels concluding that free trade with Switzerland is worth that risk.
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Old 26.07.2014, 16:35
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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Switzerland is 1/25th of the EU. 4% of expenses are more than affordable.

Elections just passed, Junker was elected. Junker.

What crisis, it was a cold, it passed.
What an utter nonsene!

Well, besides that 4% is nothing to be neglected, the EU exports 10% (or 170 billion) of its exports to Switzerland what makes Switzerland the second most important right after the USA purchaser of the EU!

On the other side, the EU imports only 5.6% (or 94 billion) of its imports from Switzerland, still the EU's forth most important provider. (all figures from 2013).

In general, Switzerland is EU's forth most important business parter. I would that hardly call unimportant.

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/doc...doc_113450.pdf

Besides, the EU has rather other problems, not just on the periphery, such as the heavy negative balance of trade by UK: 2.42 billion in May 2014! About 4.4% of its GDP. And that's definitely called problematic ... besides 4% being unimportant!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...forecasts.html

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...lance-of-trade
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Old 26.07.2014, 17:05
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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Unfortunately the argument that the EU will be flexible with Switzerland because both sides need each other only really stacks up if the only consideration is economic.
I wrote flexible. Not submissive. I agree that the economic perspective is not the only one of importance. But again: Look at the whole Ukraine or NSA affairs. Which perspective is the one that counts in the end?

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Yes the EU will feel it if the bilateral agreements with Switzerland are broken (although not as much as Switzerland will) but the political impact of renegotiation will be much much bigger. If the EU lets Switzerland have quotas, then other countries with isolationist tendencies and bigger economies (eg the UK) will also start demanding concessions and the very foundations of the EU will be undermined.
Switzerland is not in the EU. The UK is (although maybe not for long). That's the difference everyone has to understand and accept.

Switzerland is not asking to renegotiate fundamental EU laws as EU member-country, but a contract between the EU and a third party country. The EU has also negotiated free trade agreement with other countries and is doing so now with TTIP. That does not mean that US citizens will have freedom of movement within the EU afterwards.

I don't think a free trade agreement is what anyone is aiming for, but if the Swiss don't want to accept freedom of movement for EU citizens any more it seems like the only viable solution. Only because one is negotiating does not mean one has to accept all of the other party's requests. Just because you are asking the shop assistant for the price does not mean you have to buy the good, does it?

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I simply don't see Brussels concluding that free trade with Switzerland is worth that risk.
I've never seen a risk in talking. That's what I expect the responsible people to do now. Obviously everybody will have some tactics and play the big bad politician in the media, but that's their job. Everything important will be done discretely in the background. I am sure to prevent a worst-case scenario for both parties, some kind of (bad) free trade agreement would be negotiated. As written before, there is just too much at risk for everybody.

In the end I don't expect anything to happen actually. In the end the Swiss voters will decide how the relationship to the EU will look like in the future (Joining , bilaterals or some kind of free trade agreement). I think the Swiss voters will, when they have to decide between the bilaterals and a, for sure less favourable, free trade agreement, choose the bilaterals. But we'll see.
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Old 26.07.2014, 17:27
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Re: EU rejects renegotiation of free movement

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What an utter nonsene!

Well, besides that 4% is nothing to be neglected, the EU exports 10% (or 170 billion) of its exports to Switzerland what makes Switzerland the second most important right after the USA purchaser of the EU!

On the other side, the EU imports only 5.6% (or 94 billion) of its imports from Switzerland, still the EU's forth most important provider. (all figures from 2013).

In general, Switzerland is EU's forth most important business parter. I would that hardly call unimportant.

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/doc...doc_113450.pdf

Besides, the EU has rather other problems, not just on the periphery, such as the heavy negative balance of trade by UK: 2.42 billion in May 2014! About 4.4% of its GDP. And that's definitely called problematic ... besides 4% being unimportant!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...forecasts.html

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...lance-of-trade
Reverting some earlier illuminated arguments: if you think that the EU should negotiate for so little, maybe bargaining is not really your thing.
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