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  #81  
Old 18.01.2016, 15:19
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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but if the measurement isn't accurate or reliable in that range, so is the claim that you're looking at a genuine bell curve.
It is only a problem that it is a super rare case: Better than 190 are around 10 persons in the world. Better than 195 are around 1 or 2 persons.


But to prove that it is not a bell curve is much simpler, do not look at the highside, look at the low side: An IQ of 5 or lower is expected in 1 or 2 persons, world wide. Ever administred and IQ test to someone in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persis...getative_state? What score would you expect?
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  #82  
Old 18.01.2016, 17:39
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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Initially it was said that IQ follows a normal distribution, also known as Gaussian distribution. Which means Mean == median == mode, and it has a bell curve shape. Thus it is irrelevant what the mean deviation is. Furthermore, the mean deviation will not tell you anything about mean vs. median relationship as it does not care if the values are more to the left or more to the right of the mean. You have to look at the skewness, which is 0 for a normal distribution. Depending on the definition of skewness, it may tell you if the mean is larger or smaller than median for a given distribution. One commonly used, the third standardized moment, does not give you this information.


As said, the IQ is belived to follow a normal distribution, the so called bell curve. May be that rings a bell, as there was a book in the mid 1990' called The Bell Curve. Which stirred up a lot of controversy, as it said that IQ correlates which other factors in live.


Which finally leads me to:

This is only a "problem" if, and only if IQ correlates with wise long term decision making. Wheras the hot topic is not if there is a correlation but the definition of "wise".

About "This is only a "problem" if, and only if IQ correlates with wise long term decision making." No, I was writing about people's ability to understand what initiatives are actually about.
As one of our EF colleagues clearly demonstrated this understanding cannot be taken for granted.
When people vote for (or against) initiatives that they do not understand then it is less likely to be a "wise" decision.
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  #83  
Old 18.01.2016, 17:41
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

I wonder who makes a test to measure the high IQ. Can a lower IQ person make a good test for a higher IQ one? :-)
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  #84  
Old 18.01.2016, 19:00
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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It is only a problem that it is a super rare case: Better than 190 are around 10 persons in the world. Better than 195 are around 1 or 2 persons. ...
Actually there are more. We're just really good at hiding among you norms.
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  #85  
Old 18.01.2016, 19:18
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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About "This is only a "problem" if, and only if IQ correlates with wise long term decision making." No, I was writing about people's ability to understand what initiatives are actually about.
As one of our EF colleagues clearly demonstrated this understanding cannot be taken for granted.
When people vote for (or against) initiatives that they do not understand then it is less likely to be a "wise" decision.
Do you have any real evidence that significant numbers of people don't understand the issue?

Anecdotes are not statistics, and having chatted with somebody who was deluded is not the same as knowing a vote went or will go the wrong way because a majority of people didn't understand what it was about.

You know, the EF is not really representative of Switzerland as a whole, even if certain newbies come in thinking that.
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  #86  
Old 18.01.2016, 19:27
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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Do you have any real evidence that significant numbers of people don't understand the issue?

Anecdotes are not statistics, and having chatted with somebody who was deluded is not the same as knowing a vote went or will go the wrong way because a majority of people didn't understand what it was about.

You know, the EF is not really representative of Switzerland as a whole, even if certain newbies come in thinking that.
The issue is that Blocher sponsored it, he's a billionaire, and they draw sheep. @Marton, I looked, and I'm fine with the initiative as it is, and will likely vote for it. I think the court needs to be sent a message regard tougher enforcements of laws.
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  #87  
Old 18.01.2016, 19:36
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

Ironically, I'm not sure that I will vote yes, but I am sure that my wife will.

Tom
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  #88  
Old 18.01.2016, 20:53
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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Hmmm, well given that judges have failed to sentence accordingly, and never took the people's initiative seriously, I suppose this initiative is to compel courts to apply the law.

Okay, I think that is a step in the right direction. I could see why lots of intelligent people will vote for this. I believe it will pass.

About "judges have failed to sentence accordingly". I assume you can support your statement with many examples of successful prosecution appeals against sentences? I suspect not.
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  #89  
Old 18.01.2016, 20:57
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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The issue is that Blocher sponsored it, he's a billionaire, and they draw sheep. @Marton, I looked, and I'm fine with the initiative as it is, and will likely vote for it. I think the court needs to be sent a message regard tougher enforcements of laws.

Only 90 posts into the thread and you decided to educate yourself on what the topic is!
Would you like to give us a short synopsis on the objective so we can check if you really got it!
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  #90  
Old 18.01.2016, 21:01
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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Do you have any real evidence that significant numbers of people don't understand the issue?

Anecdotes are not statistics, and having chatted with somebody who was deluded is not the same as knowing a vote went or will go the wrong way because a majority of people didn't understand what it was about.

You know, the EF is not really representative of Switzerland as a whole, even if certain newbies come in thinking that.

About "Do you have any real evidence that significant numbers of people don't understand the issue?" Not at all, so far I only know one person who completely failed to understand the issue.
I felt that maybe this was the tip of an iceberg but could be there are very few who failed to grasp the point?
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  #91  
Old 18.01.2016, 21:15
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

Basically, Marton, Switzerland is so liberal and lenient in such a way that someone elsewhere can actually consider it an early retirement plan. All they would have to do is get here, commit a crime, and they will be well taken care of. In this day and age, that draw appeal needs to be closed down.

Basically, this initiative is to elaborate on the previously passed initiative, which has not been properly applied, perhaps due to ambiguity. This one should make it quite clear what was desired from the first initiative.
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  #92  
Old 18.01.2016, 21:19
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

Some counter examples but all in German; there is always Google translate if all else fails.


As others posted about financial crimes the initiative is biased more towards deporting minor criminals than the big boys.
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  #93  
Old 18.01.2016, 21:19
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

I have actually no problem with the basic principle of the vote, at all.

But knowing many rural Swiss, and many in the Police Forces- and how their tick and how they are not trained re ethnic minorities, not selected to stop overtly racist views before and during- I am seriously concerned about abuse of power and provocation- easily resulting in a yellow card becoming 2 and red, without any kind of appeal or assessment by a Judge or similar- and direct to expulsion- including youngsters without support and whole families too. Fair implementation is the key- and I just do not feel comfortable that the process will be fair and open.
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  #94  
Old 18.01.2016, 21:26
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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Basically, Marton, Switzerland is so liberal and lenient in such a way that someone elsewhere can actually consider it an early retirement plan. All they would have to do is get here, commit a crime, and they will be well taken care of. In this day and age, that draw appeal needs to be closed down.

Basically, this initiative is to elaborate on the previously passed initiative, which has not been properly applied, perhaps due to ambiguity. This one should make it quite clear what was desired from the first initiative.


About "commit a crime, and they will be well taken care of." But that does not change
They will only be deported after having served their comfortable prison sentence.
If the deportation is not successful then they continue to be well taken care of.
If they are successfully deported then later they can easily slip back over the border to continue their life of crime if that is what is attractive to them.
The whole exercise is futile.
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Old 18.01.2016, 21:55
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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It is only a problem that it is a super rare case: Better than 190 are around 10 persons in the world. Better than 195 are around 1 or 2 persons.


But to prove that it is not a bell curve is much simpler, do not look at the highside, look at the low side: An IQ of 5 or lower is expected in 1 or 2 persons, world wide. Ever administred and IQ test to someone in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persis...getative_state? What score would you expect?

Luckily we have Normalization on our side; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal...8statistics%29
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  #96  
Old 19.01.2016, 09:43
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

This law can't be applied if CH does not have readmission agreements with any other country involved in the process (or, even better, if that country does not respect these agreements as it frequently happens in developing countries), as it was the case with some deportees to Africa who were not allowed to set foot on their soil by their own governments. Or, as it was the case with the Pakistani illegal migrants deported from Greece and sent back to Europe by Pakistan because they did not have all the approvals and stamps from the interior ministry, although the embassy had issued travel documents for them.
So, it will be highly inefficient.
The law might be good in some ways, if not abused (I doubt), but it depends on external factors too. Could turn out to be just waste of money. CH could deport people only to EU, emerging to EU and other Western countries, but wait, they already can do that.....
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  #97  
Old 19.01.2016, 10:38
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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The whole exercise is futile.
Not really. Some foundational principles of law need to be in place. How they are implemented can be determined later. It can also be bolstered with others later. At this level of law making, it isn't futile at all.

The gap here is not so much the law or its principles. The gap is caused by lack of data. It would not be fool proof until the data is foolproof.
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Old 20.01.2016, 11:07
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

It's perfectly rational for Phos (and the SVP) to take this position as it's a self-reinforcing cycle that perpetuates itself:

- deport ever more foreigners
- once deportation is likely they're imprisoned to prevent them disappearing, from turning illegal paperless residents
- since the country of origin refuses them they keep being imprisoned
- this in turn raises the ratio of imprisoned foreigners to national prisoners even higher => more phony arguments for SVP
- increased number of deportees requires more backoffice staff, higher costs => more phony arguments for SVP
- number of imprisoned deportees rises despite increased staff => proof of government inefficiency => more phony arguments for SVP

Btw what nationality were you born with, in what country, and what's your nationality now? Got the handcuffs for yourself ready?
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Old 20.01.2016, 11:33
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

Its for plugging a loophole for crimes intentionally committed by foreigners due to leniency of the Swiss justice system. A mentioned earlier, Swiss jails can be seen an attractive retirement plan for less privileged foreigners. The actual implementation is questionable, as it requires quality data. The data may not always be available, but the principle of the law is solid. It can be bolstered later with better data, or additional measures.
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Old 20.01.2016, 11:55
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Re: Feb. 28th vote on enforced implementation of the deportation initiative

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Its for plugging a loophole for crimes intentionally committed by foreigners due to leniency of the Swiss justice system. A mentioned earlier, Swiss jails can be seen an attractive retirement plan for less privileged foreigners. The actual implementation is questionable, as it requires quality data. The data may not always be available, but the principle of the law is solid. It can be bolstered later with better data, or additional measures.

But the foreigners must serve their sentences before they are deported.
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