| Quote: | |  | |
| BTW, for the brave and/or foolish - CS shares are at a 5 year low today  | |
| | |
Fair point Marton. Even accounting for today's rebound, bank stocks are low. The question is how long before you make money and what is the opportunity cost vs investing in alternatives. Obviously if you're day trading and you call it right on any given day, you can make a mint trading bank stocks, as this week shows. But I reckon most of us aren't that lucky.
Bigger picture, performance of banks are tied to the sovereign debt problem. As long as sovereign debt remains an issue, banks stocks will be volatile because they're exposed to a lot of sovereign debt. Some more than others, but markets aren't in a mood to pick and choose. Financials are gapping around as a group. It has little to do with specifics. Macro determines direction.
On top of that, stocks in general aren't flavour of the month, and economic growth is weak (important to bank profits) so that's another two things working against you.
The danger is, even if banks don't go bankrupt, this could lead to another credit crunch.
I haven't held a financial stock since 2007. I'm not planning to change that now.
PS if you're a non Swiss franc investor in it for the long term and were considering CS, you'd also have to have a view on the Swissie if you were to buy CS or any Swiss stock now. Save haven FX moves could have a real impact on CS's profits and on your own portfolio returns.