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  #2081  
Old 04.08.2011, 20:03
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

This BBC Video summarises the financial situation to date:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13991135

The debts of the Western World are staggering; including individual, company, government and country debts.
This has really hit the main news over the last couple of months but it is quite clear that this is just the start.
Individuals, companies and governments have to realise that they are going to have to live within their means and as a result there are going to be some major life style changes for the middle and lower class.
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  #2082  
Old 04.08.2011, 20:42
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Individuals, companies and governments have to realise that they are going to have to live within their means and as a result there are going to be some major life style changes for the middle and lower class.
Which of course they are going to accept just like that, isn't it, given that "we're all in this together" (c) The Conservative Party 2010
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  #2083  
Old 04.08.2011, 22:00
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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This BBC Video summarises the financial situation to date:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13991135
I feel that this shocking outburst by the ben bernank gives a better idea:

Drunken Ben Bernanke Tells Everyone At Neighborhood Bar How Screwed U.S. Economy Really Is

[or just look at the price of gold]

edit: oops, Zuger beat me to it in OT: Drunken Ben Bernanke Tells Everyone

Last edited by carver; 04.08.2011 at 22:11.
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  #2084  
Old 05.08.2011, 10:38
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Individuals...have to realise that they are going to have to live within their means and as a result there are going to be some major life style changes for the middle and lower class.
Less money for the middle classes = less money for those living off other people's money

Some people must be worried.
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  #2085  
Old 05.08.2011, 17:54
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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I feel that this shocking outburst by the ben bernank gives a better idea:

Drunken Ben Bernanke Tells Everyone At Neighborhood Bar How Screwed U.S. Economy Really Is
You didn't believe this story did you Carver?
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  #2086  
Old 06.08.2011, 13:32
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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You didn't believe this story did you Carver?
That is the daftest question I've ever seen on the interweb. Congratulations.
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  #2087  
Old 06.08.2011, 13:36
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...on-accord.html

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Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S.’s AAA credit rating for the first time, slamming the nation’s political process and criticizing lawmakers for failing to cut spending enough to reduce record budget deficits.
Wow. Will funds mandated to hold only AAA investments dump treasuries, or just change their investment criteria?
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  #2088  
Old 06.08.2011, 13:37
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Will you please enlighten us with the reasons behind your daring statement as why you think UBS can/will fail?
shedding large numbers of IT contractors in Zurich maybe.
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  #2089  
Old 06.08.2011, 13:55
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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shedding large numbers of IT contractors in Zurich maybe.
This is in fact the path to success...
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  #2090  
Old 06.08.2011, 15:15
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

The US of AA+ responds to the downgrade: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/joint-...-fdic-ncua-occ

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Earlier today, Standard & Poor’s rating agency lowered the long-term rating of the U.S. government and federal agencies from AAA to AA+. With regard to this action, the federal banking agencies are providing the following guidance to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and bank and savings and loan holding companies (collectively, banking organizations)

For risk-based capital purposes, the risk weights for Treasury securities and other securities issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government, government agencies, and government-sponsored entities will not change. The treatment of Treasury securities and other securities issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government, government agencies, and government-sponsored entities under other federal banking agency regulations, including, for example, the Federal Reserve Board’s Regulation W, will also be unaffected.
Mandating the bankers to keep propping up treasuries may only work for US organisations. One would have thought that a black monday is ahead, but this downgrade must have already been priced in through the usual insider leaks.

Someone made out like a bandit last week. Bet they've got friends at S&P: http://etfdailynews.com/2011/07/25/investors-the-1-billion-armageddon-trade-placed-against-the-united-states/
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Someone dropped a bomb on the bond market Thursday – a $1 billion Armageddon trade betting the United States will lose its AAA credit rating.

In one moment, an invisible trader placed a single trade that moved the most liquid debt market in the world.
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This means someone is confident that the United States is either going to default or is going to lose its AAA rating. That someone is willing to bet the proverbial farm that U.S. interest rates will be going up.
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  #2091  
Old 07.08.2011, 18:51
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Bet they've got friends at S&P
Why do you say that? Must've been the best telegraphed downgrade in history.
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  #2092  
Old 07.08.2011, 18:59
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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That is the daftest question I've ever seen on the interweb. Congratulations.
Ah, you did believe it then
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  #2093  
Old 07.08.2011, 19:13
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Wow. Will funds mandated to hold only AAA investments dump treasuries, or just change their investment criteria?
The people who matter will stick with the US because they have nowhere else to go. The lowering of the US credit rating amounts to a downgrade of the sovereign bond market as a whole.
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  #2094  
Old 07.08.2011, 19:35
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Why do you say that? Must've been the best telegraphed downgrade in history.
In general, Insider trading is rife in the city, and almost always goes unpunished.

That someone made a massive bet on the downgrade 1 or 2 days before it happened is an indicator, and that they apparently made the trade in such a rush (when you claim that it was well telegraphed, thus giving them plenty of time to organise the trade had they not been relying on insider info) is another.
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  #2095  
Old 07.08.2011, 20:05
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

anyone who longs long dated US Treasuries is a sucker and i suspect a few of them will start realising that pretty soon...
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  #2096  
Old 08.08.2011, 10:50
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

US announced today they are investigating 5 more Swiss banks & one from Lichtenstein (spelling?) - no names as yet
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  #2097  
Old 11.08.2011, 11:19
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Buried amongst all the other news today was a statement that Germany & Switzerland have reached an agreement on taxes.
Swiss banks will pay an advance payment of 2bn to Germany which it is hoped will be recovered from their German customers according to some complex scheme.

It is expected this will be a model for other agreements to be completed to soon pay some billions to other countries.
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  #2098  
Old 11.08.2011, 14:03
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

BTW, for the brave and/or foolish - CS shares are at a 5 year low today
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  #2099  
Old 12.08.2011, 20:27
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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That someone made a massive bet on the downgrade 1 or 2 days before it happened is an indicator, and that they apparently made the trade in such a rush (when you claim that it was well telegraphed, thus giving them plenty of time to organise the trade had they not been relying on insider info) is another.
Gullible or what. Feeling embarrassed about posting this tripe?
You really have to stop believing what you read on the outer limits of internet blogs.
I've said this before Carver. You should start your own thread instead of peppering what used to be a good one with conspiracy rubbish.
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  #2100  
Old 12.08.2011, 21:14
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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BTW, for the brave and/or foolish - CS shares are at a 5 year low today
Fair point Marton. Even accounting for today's rebound, bank stocks are low. The question is how long before you make money and what is the opportunity cost vs investing in alternatives. Obviously if you're day trading and you call it right on any given day, you can make a mint trading bank stocks, as this week shows. But I reckon most of us aren't that lucky.
Bigger picture, performance of banks are tied to the sovereign debt problem. As long as sovereign debt remains an issue, banks stocks will be volatile because they're exposed to a lot of sovereign debt. Some more than others, but markets aren't in a mood to pick and choose. Financials are gapping around as a group. It has little to do with specifics. Macro determines direction.
On top of that, stocks in general aren't flavour of the month, and economic growth is weak (important to bank profits) so that's another two things working against you.
The danger is, even if banks don't go bankrupt, this could lead to another credit crunch.
I haven't held a financial stock since 2007. I'm not planning to change that now.

PS if you're a non Swiss franc investor in it for the long term and were considering CS, you'd also have to have a view on the Swissie if you were to buy CS or any Swiss stock now. Save haven FX moves could have a real impact on CS's profits and on your own portfolio returns.
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