Imagine if the banks did go bust. How long would it take to actually get your guaranteed £50k from the government?

In the UK with interest rates at 0.5%; a good chance that you are going to have to sign on; you are better off having your money in Swiss Francs in a Safe Deposit Box.

I would say there will be more runs on the banks later on in the year. The figures don't stack up to me.

I would go for gold bars in the safe deposit box....

Now 1.43 versus euro.

I would say that GB Pound will continue to fall due to:
(1) looks as if the UK is going to have a hung parliament
(2) there has to be a million civil servants laid off over the next three years
(3) house prices will more than likely fall another 10% when reposessions start
(4) there will be more bad news to come from the UK banks

The Euro will have to fall due to:
(1) Greece
(2) Other countries to follow such as Ireland, Italy, Spain, Portugal
(3) German economy has to get worse. It is OK manufacturing but pointless if no customers as there is no credit available.

So then there is the US dollar, but that is dodgy with the deficit and states bankrupt and no prospects of the economy picking up there.

The Swiss franc is probably a good bet, so will probably go up against all the other countries and its interest rate is on par with the other currencies.
Gold could be a good bet as the price is now 1080, has been 1220 and has a support price of 1000.

On 8th Feb I wrote "Seems like a good time to borrow euros & buy Swiss francs?"
Pity nobody seemed willing to lend a me a few billion.....

I know exactly where you are coming from. You need to risk your own money.
I am looking into Day Trading (US shares) for the simple reason that nobody else seems to be advertising and pumping it and you find that when the public are aware of it, there is no profit in it.

Yes I need to risk my own money but the relatively small currency movements means that I do not have enough "own money" to generate enough profit to give me a change of life style!

For me, the issue with day trading is that the daily price changes usually do not follow basic economic rules but jump around based on rumours & herd instinct

From today's papers
"Like Greece, Portugal and Spain, Ireland is facing a sovereign debt crisis, triggered by investor concerns over the hole in its public finances. At 11.7 per cent of gross domestic product in 2009, the budget deficit is the second largest in the eurozone after Greece."
&
"Ireland will on Monday begin operating a new “bad bank” to house €81bn in bad property loans left over from the financial crisis"

I have a bad feeling about banks in 2010 & the quality of their commercial property loans; so far the Swiss property market seems pretty stable but the major Swiss banks no doubt have such liabilities in other lands.

On the subject of 2010 & the markets & also from today's papers;
“Swaps spread” is essentially a measure of the cost of borrowing funds in the Libor market (for a private companies, such as banks), minus the cost of raising government debt.

Government debt is at sovereign borrowing rates which should be lower than the cost for private borrowers since triple A-rated central government is supposed to the safest thing about.
However, last week the US benchmark 10-year swap spread turned negative, as 10-year US Treasury yields spiralled up towards 4 per cent.

Gulp - hope this is a temporary glitch.
If not, seems like a good time to borrow money to buy Treasuries & live off the yield difference.

It's ok, if (we) bankers stuff it up again, the taxpayers will come to our rescue, bail us out and guarantee our bonuses, so we can carry on with the party. Way hay! whoop whoop

I don't think UBS will be bust, especially not the retail part. UBS is still one of the world's leading banks, and it's IB department is doing well despite all the controversy surrounding its operations. I think it's important that people understand that the bank is embedded into Swiss culture and history. Banking is the backbone of the Swiss economy and the government would be stupid to let any of it's main institutions fail.

a) Swissair was equally "embedded". The govt could theoretically have saved it, but it was commercially a basket case...

b) As for the large banks, it doesn't matter if they are the pride and joy of Switzerland. They are too big. If UBS or CS for instance implodes with a spectacular gamble gone wrong or an accounting scandal, the Swiss govt would not have the wherewithal to save it, even if it wanted to.

Apparently, the market is not convinced that the USA is AAA.

There is always an emotional (pride) and sentimental aspect to every decision. Hence, the effort to save Swissair despite not being "system critical".

The failure of a large Swiss Bank would trigger tsunami waves in Switzerland and cause enormous collateral damage. That is expensive and painful. May be cheaper to rescue the Bank rather than the costs of compensating Swiss depositors, unemployment benefits and bankruptcy of many businesses.

That was probably the same reason that the UK banks were bailed out by the UK government (Tax payers) otherwise the City of London would have lost its credibility totally.

Most leading financial centers (UK, US, DE, FR, JP, NL) bailed out their banks. It was not only to ensure credibility. It was thought cheaper to rescue the banks then bear the cost of the collateral damage in business and individual bankruptcies, foreclosures, unemployment, etc.

I am a Swiss taxpayer. I resent the tax penalty and outraged at tax-money paying bankers bonuses. Yet no apparent viable alternative to bailout ....

And the currency markets certainly don't think it's on the horizon. Strong Swiss Franc...UBS at risk of going belly up? Can't both be right.

I know the GB£ has fallen against the dollar and the Euro but on the whole the main currencies have not varied that much. Probably becuase all of the governments of them have bailed the banks out and all in as much trouble.
As I have said several times on this thread; there are more repercussions to come with the banks (bad debts - big time) and some of the financial instruments floating around (bonds) don't make a lot of sence to me.

I expect the shares eventually to fall dramatically; however saying that I would expect the banks to be in mega trouble then. This being becuase I suspect thet the banks have been giving the debts (probably a substantial amount to be proved later as bad debts) in exchange for in effect cash.
The banks found it safer for their Investment Banking Arms to play with this money than lend it to businesses and private individuals which makes sense. I therefore think the shares are way over priced unless somebody can explain to me why the FT100 was worth 3,800 in March 2009 and is now 5,700? Are these companies really going to pay dividends with pension fund deficits that need to be filled; slow sales as no credit availble etc etc. Just doesn't stack up to me! What am I forgetting.
I would also expect the Euro to fall when all the PIGS start getting to trouble and Germany exports don't reach expectations.
Oh; and maybe somebody could explain to me why Italy is not in deep deep sh!t as its finances do not make sense to me?

The answer is here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:St...doPIGSengl.PNG
Italian fiscal deficit (as fraction of GDP) is -5% which is same as Germany. Compare that with -13% for US and GR.

and then, of course, there was Iceland.

the only thing standing between UK and Iceland was the size of the UK banks' losses relative to the UK's GDP.