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Old 04.04.2011, 23:33
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Well - the speech blaming Israel for everything did not work.

The usual demonstrations & violent responses continue.

Will syria break up along ethnic lines (starting with the Kurds) ? not likely (Turkey, for one, will not like that) - but it already happend in Lebanon during the civil war, so it might happen again.
The speech of course did not achieve anything as it was rubbish. Worse was that cheap trick with the Prime Minister and his chaps resigning, as people want most of all the Ba'ath Party stop being the monopolistic and only party, and if wanting somebody to resign the state-president to be the one.

No, Syria cannot break up along "ethnic lines" as there are not "ethnic areas" (the Kurds are the exception). The "break-up along Sunni/Shi'ite lines" for a long while was a preferential topic in the western media in case of Iraq, but since the Fundamentalists lost the support of Fundamentalist GWB and lost the last parliamentary elections clearly to the Secularists, this topic suddenly has died !

Turkey ? Not really relevant in Syria, BUT I already now can tell you is that the Turkish leadership will NOT like to see Iraqi Kurdistan moving towards national independence, as it will ! Sure, I cannot tell you WHEN this will happen, but happen it will. This may of course also cause problems for Syria and Iran within some time, but most of all it will be a problem for the Turkish Republic.