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Old 20.04.2011, 13:48
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Phil_MCR Phil_MCR is offline
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Re: CHF=EUR parity. When will it happen?

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Too many factors to consider.

plus factors for CHF value
  • If the rumour is true that the SNB will up interest rates before mid-year
  • If people keeping buying CHF as a safe haven (because there are not enough CHF around to meet demand & will the SNB print more in order to swop them for currencies that are declining in value - I think not)
Negative factors for euro
  • If the Greeks keep rioting & force euro deal restructure
  • New Irish government force euro deal restructure
  • Spanish proporty market goes into free fall
  • Somebody audits Italy's numbers
  • Belgium continues with no Government
I would say end of 3Q if all worst cases occur.
For me, I think it has been clear all along that Greece will either default ("restructure") and I suspect other countries could follow suit.

The SNB rate rise is an interesting one. SNB isn't really controlling inflation, but I wonder how long this can go on for? It would be a bit of an own goal to have bought all those EURs and then raise the rates.

My guess is that parity would be reached either on the initial Greek default or soon after on the subsequent financial aftershocks and events resulting from this.
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