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Old 08.07.2011, 10:19
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Phil_MCR Phil_MCR is offline
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Re: Do you have a UK pension?

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Would some of you financial whizz-kids be kind enough to give an old lady an opinion on whether the UKú and the US$ are going to continue their dramatic slide against the Swiss franc, or whether you see some glimmer of hope on the horizon for an improvement.
My husband, a Swiss, retired from his multi-national company over 25 years ago, and wanted to return to his own country after a career spent living all over the world, which seemed perfectly reasonable at the time.
Our pensions are all in pounds and dollars and it is becoming increasingly difficult to make ends meet, living in la belle suisse.
The UKú has gone from Sfr.4.50 to 1.35 now.
My husband is too old and frail to face a move to the UK
We are now at the stage of selling off our assets and, after disposing of things which didn't mean too much to us, we now have to face selling stuff we love just to live.
We could hold off for another year or so if things look like improving.
Not of course, any comparison to the situation of the poor devils in the horn of Africa, but difficult for an old couple nonetheless.
I'm just looking for educated guesses and promise not to hold you to them.
i have been short GBP long CHF for the last 3 years. personally, i would imagine the situation to stay the same or get worse over the next few years. that said, i closed my short position as it was costing me 6% per year to fund and i wanted to reduce my risk.

i guess the problem you will have is that the best time to have sold was years ago and so now you are stuck having to sell at the lowest point, or wait for a miraculous re-bound.

while some are in a position to wait 10 or more years for a rebound, if you're retired and need the cash to live, then time is not on your side. so you will need to weigh up the chance of a big rebound within your desired timeframe.

FYI, the BoE left rates on hold and have consistently been doveish (most of the hawks on the MPC board have been replaced by doves) so this could continue for a while. while the SNB have also rock bottom IRs (and also a very bad QE mis-adventure) i see the SNB as more likely to respond the the threat of inflation than the BoE.
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Last edited by Phil_MCR; 08.07.2011 at 14:54.
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