View Single Post
  #65  
Old 25.01.2016, 14:38
NomadAmericano NomadAmericano is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: Zug
Posts: 90
Groaned at 22 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 491 Times in 262 Posts
NomadAmericano is considered knowledgeableNomadAmericano is considered knowledgeableNomadAmericano is considered knowledgeable
Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

Quote:
View Post
Never was a fan and always voted for anyone but her...

Her political career had two phases:

1. Before becoming chancellor
She was the "political child" of Helmut Kohl. After the reunification did he need to establish the CDU as the conservative force in Eastern Germany and therefore put quite some effort into finding some good people there. Anything Merkel did later on she learned during the Kohl years. On thing that was her specialty even back then was to not have any specialty: She never had any program or position in anything but always went with the majority. When majority opinions changed on a topic... so did she. Like a little flag in the wind... she clearly did not go into politics because she was convinced of a certain position and wanted to make sure this get implemented - but simply was hungry for power.

2. Chancellor.
First of all do I think she deserves respect to manage to become the leader of the conservatives. As a woman. From Eastern Germany. I am pretty sure that not too many on here know the German conservatives that well, but I am sure many other political parties work the same: Junior politicians meet during their college times and spend 1-2 decades to work on their politcial careers and push the jobs to their circle of friends. Within the CDU of her generation was this the "Andes-club", a group of men who went on a South America tour with the "young conservatives" during the early 80s... at a time Merkel was still wearing her socialist shirts...
During her years as a chancellor did she get a new nickname as she wasn't moving like a flag in the populist wind anymore: "Teflon". No matter what happened in Berlin, nothing sticks to Merkel. With her will to power did she never have a problem to get rid of any minister or decades long supporter whenever necessary. And for some reason did her voters time and again buy the story that it clearly was not her fault, but whoever just got kicked out.

I think around 1-2 years ago she somehow realized something: She has no legacy. None. Kohl had the reunification. Schroeder has reformed the social insurances against strong resistance even from his own party to meet the challenges of an aging society (at least a bit...) with his Hartz 4 packages and the "Agenda 2010" program. Merkel: A big fat nothing. Promised to lower the tax but did in fact raise it. Health care is in worse shape than before her, retirement system is in a worse shape, the army is just ridiculous and this list goes on. Clearly, the European Union in in a worse shape today than a decade ago - even before the refugees. Just think of the entire Greece story. It was her job to solve it together with the French, but out came very little. Internally was her non-action very good for businesses: The economy grew based on low wages and stagnating purchasing power of employees. It was good for companies but bad for the employees of those companies.

So I believe that a year and a half ago she decided that she does not want to go into the history books as a "lost decade". We had that situation before: Kohl did nothing for a decade in the 80s... well, that's not true: he more than doubled the German debt since he was unwilling to change the generous social insurances when it was necessary. Luckily for him came the reunification: Suddenly we clearly had to save money to "finance the build up" which was one complete lie. He did the things that were overdue for a decade and still will be remained as the chancellor that reunited the country, no matter how bad his policies were.

Angela was probably looking for her reunification story. Helping a million people in need makes you look good... and gives a great reason to push through policies you otherwise would try to avoid as they are unpopular. The problem is that these refugees are not Germans and that I don't think the population is falling for it this time. And that's dangerous: Since Merkel is doing left winged politics that's even too left for most of the SPD, let alone her own party does she suppress the conservative 50% of the German population. Many will still vote for the CDU because conservatives by definition hate change and just hope for some other candidates in the future. However, 10-20% might be so unhappy with her that they are willing to vote for newly popped up conservative movements. The problem is that those are not just radical in their opinions, but simply not up for the job of a power in a democratically elected parliament. They will make policy making much more difficult for the coming years and ultimately disappear again as soon as Merkel is gone and the CDU back on track. However, this will alienate even more people with politics.
Great analysis.

The result is disaster whenever a politician is looking to establish their "legacy".
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank NomadAmericano for this useful post: