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Old 24.02.2016, 12:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Having made that argument, I am SURE you already knew that as a percentage of exports Germany -> UK is 6.9% of all German exports, and UK -> Germany is 10% of UK exports.

And this is if you take into account only UK <-> Germany trade. After Brexit, 45% of UK exports could be subject to the same EU market rules as, say for example, India is.

Sure, the UK could always impose tariff barriers and well and get into a trade war with the EU and see how that ends. But unless I have forgotten third grade math, its evident that the UK would get hit much harder.

So the reason why no German CEO is protesting to Merkel is, that even if 6.9% of German exports are affected, there is enough room to compensate for it by eating into the share of 45% of UK exports to the EU.
However the most likely scenario is that rather than causing harm to BOTH economies, they'd hastily negotiate a new trade deal as it would be the most sensible thing to do.
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