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Old 21.05.2016, 01:01
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Serious Swiss newspaper, writes "The divorce will be dirty" (Google translation)

This gives at least a taste: "Deserters are not welcomed with open arms," ​​European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday Friday in a newspaper interview to the address of the British. If the majority in the referendum on 23 June to decide on the withdrawal from the EU, will the United Kingdom to third countries with no claim to special treatment.

Finally, at the request of the government in London, the EU leaders have been dispensing advice to the British. Interference from Brussels could be counterproductive. But one, such as Juncker, can not be so quick to shut up. And then there are also voices that urge us to make the British the consequences of proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union in time significantly.

The biggest problem is how the EU would proceed with a No from Britain, this is fresh European Union territory. There is no blueprint for a divorce. What is clear is that a separation would be dirty and complex. Since the Lisbon Treaty on European Union, there are indeed at least the outlet Article 50. The untested mechanism for the voluntary and unilateral withdrawal of a country, but is there only vaguely described.

In a first step, the British government would put on the withdrawal request formally informed its European partners. First opportunity would be the height of the leaders, the European Council President Donald Tusk has moved, out of consideration for the British referendum, by one week to 28 June. In a second part of the meeting, the leaders in Brussels would define the guidelines for the negotiation of an agreement to exit even without the British Premier.

End for FTA

Britain would now not a normal member. Article 50 stipulates that Government and ministers may not attend any discussions and decision on the agreement to exit. The EU Commission would for London negotiator, said the British would come under great time pressure to a revision of the conditions. Article 50 specifies a narrow temporal corset of two years to regulate exit procedures and the new relationship with the EU.

In the two years would have to be clarified, for example, whether and under what conditions the UK continues to receive access to the internal market of the EU. In particular, the financial industry is likely to push for a swift resolution. In a Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union Great Britain would also fly from some 50 free trade agreements that have been negotiated by Brussels for the whole EU. London takes a very short time to renegotiate or take massive disadvantages.

One challenge would be to regulate the legal status of the approximately two million EU citizens in the UK and as many British on the continent. In Spain alone, more than 200,000 live British retirees who could lose access to social and health system.

not expected gifts

may have to be amended standard also police cooperation or about the applicability of the European arrest warrant, the United Kingdom has been often used. As an EU member Britain has implemented EU legislation or applied directly. In the EU legal acts that are transposed into national law, it should be no problem. For the directly applicable regulations, the British government would have but quickly found replacement.

In addition, ask very practical questions. So it seems impossible that Britain could take over the rotating EU presidency as scheduled for a vote for the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union in July. Possibly also takes the British EU Financial Commissioner Jonathan Hill at least give its dossier, when negotiating future rules on access to the London financial center.

Another open issue is what happens to the British judges at the European Court, and how long are likely to remain the 73 British MEPs. Rather unlikely that they could a say in matters that do not affect their land. At least no acute concerns would be the almost 1200 making among the total 33,000 EU officials, who have a British passport. Their employment contracts would not be affected by an exit. Hopes of a career in top positions of the EU administration they would however buried.

be the problem for the British is likely that they have little leverage. And gifts they can not be expected. Therefore Commission and European partners have only been to be strict to deter counterfeiters and to prevent a general withdrawal movement. Is there within two years, no agreement, provides outlet products before 50 that the EU treaties for Great Britain no longer apply. But FTAs ​​or negotiate a contract of association usually takes many years. An extension to end of two years is possible only if all Member States agree. A Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union would be for the British to a journey into the unknown.
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