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Old 01.06.2016, 07:00
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marton marton is offline
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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1. Negotiating an FTA doesn't mean you can't negotiate with anyone else
2. The UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world
3. Having a trade agreement negotiated by the UK actually means the UK can get one that benefits the UK instead of a hodge podge of compromises that is tailored to the rest of the EU (given the differences between the UK and rest of EU economy). Currently the EU negotiated trade deals may not be in the UK interest
4. The UK economy has a huge service component - something that the EU cares so little about that they haven't even opened up the internal EU service trade (mostly as an internal protectionist measure against the UK). It is also reflected in the fact that that 2 in 3 EU trade deals don't even covers trade in services!

The UK would be able to negotiate better trade deals than the EU and faster too. The UK has been harmed during its period of membership in the EU during which it has been blocked from concluding its own trade agreements.
As a matter of interest who do you think will negotiate/organise the new trade deals on behalf of the UK?
All the expertise is currently in the EU?
Nobody in the UK has negotiated a trade deal in 20 years!

I suppose there will be a requirement to organise deals with the EU, US, Asian countries, Middle East, South American countries, former British Commonwealth countries plus more?
I foresee a huge increase in UK Civil Servants.

Quote from today's Guardian "The full scale of the task facing Whitehall will become clear. The UK will have to renegotiate 80,000 pages of EU agreements, deciding those to be kept in UK law and those to jettison."


Quote from today's ft "The only UK officials with the skills to negotiate trade deals at present are with the commission itself. Even if we repatriated them all, we would struggle to put together a team of more than 25 people with the practical experience needed.
Hiring (and then co-ordinating) 475 negotiators of other nationalities will require more than good luck."


This is very much like the problem that companies face who have outsourced some activities then later want to bring them back in house. It is a very difficult, sometimes impossible task. The skills are gone, the experience is gone and relevant detailed documentation may not be available or was translated to another language!

Last edited by marton; 01.06.2016 at 07:14.
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