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Old 04.06.2016, 16:51
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Now you surprise me as you usually have a decent grasp of some subjects. However I assume statistics are not your strong point.

Right, lets put it another way and see if you can understand it.

Exports represent almost 29% of the UK economy. So roughly 14% of UK GDP is directly dependent on exports to the rest of the EU (indirectly a factor higher than even that of course).

For the EU, external exports represent about 18% of GDP. Adjusting for the UK figures (not included in the 18% on either side), you can work out that exports to the UK account for something like 3% of the EU economy. Plus a decent slice of that is food, something the UK has no choice but to import.

Take 3% out of the EU GDP and you have a nasty racesion. Take 14% out of the UK GDP and you have a real crash.
I don't believe the trade will stop, I think the global exports from a temporally devalued will cause a boom rather than a recession.
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