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Old 06.07.2016, 11:40
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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If the EU is serious (and I don't know if it's the case), the Uk could be listed as tax evasion paradise in no time. This does have consequences for business and finance.
But at the moment, it's all about rhetoric, called in French "effet d'annonce", because nobody knows what and how anything might be applicable in the future, even the reduction of corporate tax is such a rhetoric game as nothing can assure that it will be applied by the next government. It's just a response to the big companies that didn't want the Brexit and have been announcing delocalization or job cuts. In other words:
Right now we're still in the aftershock phase and not yet in the constructive go forward phase. Nobody wants to admit any form of error and both sides are pretending they've come out of this totally unscathed and its the other side that is totally screwed, and are spreading the threats (we'll treat you like tax evaders, or we'll stop buying German cars ... all threats that look good on paper but that probably nobody would follow up on).

The next phase will need to move beyond the posturing and call for some real leadership. I think we're lacking real leader figures on both sides right now, and leadership vaccums tend to pose some risk and uncertainty. I'm not totally convinced by any of the present Conservative contenders, but assume May will make it, and guess she will do a good job by and large. On the EU side things are less clear. Can Junker keep his seat? Will Angela stand by him or stab him in the back? Is he a capable crisis leader or just somebody who can keep things running in the good times?
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