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Old 15.07.2016, 10:50
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well first of all about 70% of the UK's GDP is derived from services, in particular financial services which would not be covered by this agreement. Secondly the UK could only pursue agreements within the framework of the EEA and thirdly most of the third party agreements of the EU have equivalents in the EEA agreement.

And at this stage we're done.
Partially, but not completely done. It would meet the requirements of the referendum text to no longer be a member of the EU. But it does not provide immigration control, and there are still laws and regulations the EU will need to comply with. Its value is to avoid a disruption that would cause recession in the short term, particularly if the EU proves to be incompetent to react in a timely manner towards a new deal. Which is the likely scenario.

The UK can still pursue an Bilateral with immigration control, as well as pursue FTAs with the rest of the world, which is where the UK is ultimately headed.

Basically, there is a pathway out of the doom and gloom scenario, and Theresa May's cabinet appears to be postured towards this agenda. As for how they will actually proceed, I think we will hear of it soon enough in a few months.

This means the gloomy economic consequences of Brexit are quite reactionary, temporary and short-term. It may have already bottomed out. I think I would buy British Pounds now and right before a roadmap is clarified.

Project Fear has failed.
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