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Old 16.08.2016, 14:43
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It was stated during the referendum that the UK has a trade deficit with Europe. So isn't it in Europe's interest to keep the UK on-board. All this hard-talk from the Euro ministers has been ignored so far.
Well there is a very big difference between trying to keep someone on board and giving up you fundamental principles. And since recent UK exports to the EU accounted for 48% of it's exports, the possibility of loosing preferential access to it's biggest market, a relatively wealth market within easy proximity, should make the UK more accommodating don't you think???

You also have to keep in mind that trade with the UK benefits some countries more than others, who are even less likely to break with fundamental principles. And then there are others like Spain who sees it as a golden opportunity to gain some control over Gibraltar and Ireland has stated that they will not tolerate an international border on the island of Ireland, which seems to suggest that NI would need to remain in some kind of customs union with the EU, which no doubt would lead to Scotland demanding the same. This means that there are at least two potential vetos on the EU side. EFTA membership now also seems in doubt with Norway stating that it would veto such an application as it feels the UK would create an imbalance within the group.

One thing about article 50 that people overlook, is that all trade agreements the UK benefits from as an EU member will also have to be addressed at the same time. And with limited negotiators available this will also be a challenge.

There are definitely very serious challenges ahead.
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