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Old 10.11.2016, 12:24
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

Wall of text ahead, but please bear with me, I'm trying to make good points:

I secretly hoped Trump would win. Not because I believe he'll be a good president (I have no idea), but Clinton is just so unsympathetic and uncharismatic that I couldn't support her message at all.

Trump played the obvious card of appealing to the disenfranchised low income white population in rural areas. These people saw their livelihood and prosperity completely disappear after the 70s as industrial production moved elsewhere or got taken over by robots. The problem is, that's not going to change. Low skill manual labor jobs are gone and are never coming back again (unless humanity nukes itself back to the stone age).

Industrial production is higher than ever, even in the west, but none of it benefits low skilled labor because it's all robotics and automation. This trend is going to accelerate, and I'm absolutely convinced that it won't stop at manual labor. Law, healthcare, clerical jobs and even creative industry - human labor in these areas is going to severely shrink or even disappear in the next couple of decades. There'll still be a need for specialist lawyers and surgeons and high skilled artists will find success, but even today, state of the art machine learning could replace basic general practitioner or lawyer work and do a better job at it. The skill level where humans can still compete with machines is rising rapidly. State of the art finance is no longer looking at moving averages and technical indicators or staring at 15 bloomberg screens trying to guess movements from charts. That's pretty much pleb level work that is going to disappear in short order. We are at a point where machine learning algorithms are not only generating trades, but are themselves designing other algorithms to trade. Financial advisors who have charged exorbitant prices for an ill-defined notion of "expertise" are living on borrowed time, because even today you have cheap or even free to use automated tools that do a much better job at coming up with a tailor made portfolio. Even more, these tools can maintain the portfolio for you, so you don't need to pay hefty fees to some dingbat in Mayfair to rebalance your stocks once a month.

I'm a libertarian at heart and flinch every time someone says wealth redistribution, but even I see the writing on the wall that humanity is not far from the post scarcity era. When most human beings are "useless" in terms of production and their labor is no longer beneficial to society, shouldn't we start seriously looking at the notion that, maybe, just maybe, not everyone will be able or have to work?
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