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Old 07.12.2016, 16:25
Blueangel Blueangel is offline
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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We argued about the pros and cons of EU membership, and options for leaving, all day every day for 3 or 4 months.
The most sage like post on the referendum wasn't in this thread. I've quoted it before, but believe it deserves to be read in full because I wish I'd had a bet on the result based upon this

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There is more truth to this than what many people realize. The devil is in the fact that the referendum is non-binding! Yes, the UK citizenry will boldly vote and the government is pretty much free to ignore the results if they are inconvenient. There is no timeframe and/or obligation for the government to act upon the results.

Of course, one could argue that ignoring the results of a referendum is likely to be political suicide, but the possibility is there. Let's imagine the scenario that the results are very tight. If the results are like 60% leave and 40% remain, it will be exceptionally difficult for the government to weasel their way out of a Brexit. In case it's more like 50.1% leave and 49.9% remain, it's much less clear cut!

The Cameron government can fall either way. In case the vote is for a Brexit, Cameron is finished. In case the vote is for Stay, a large Tory contingent will take a very dim view on the fact that Cameron campaigned for the stay.
How low will GBP go?

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Is there an obvious reason why lawyers for the Remain campaign, or any media interviewer / commentator, did not mention that constitutionally, Brexit could not happen if the Leave side won the vote?
Because it was all smoke and mirrors? Because the law prefer to only deal in facts, not speculation, but the wheels were in motion. The case launched by Gina Miller happened on 18 July, so hardly months, and the outline may well have been prepared before the referendum result along with other scenarios.

High Court to hear legal challenge to Brexit First of three actions around the Article 50 process
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