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Old 16.01.2017, 13:23
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Absolutely.

And 2017 is going to be the year of change. Merkel still lives the illusion she could win another election, but she's pretty much alone there. The CDU could at best become the junior coalition party behind the SPD whose leaders right now are basically a bunch of opportunists. I'd say as far as Germany is concerned, the future is still very much open. But I believe that in the long run, the pragmatists always win in Germany, and that means they will accept and work with Trump rather than opposing him at every turn. But I said in the long run. It may cost some years of agony until that filters through and certain people agree to eat their humble pies. In France the establishment seems to think it would already be a success if they could prevent Marine being elected. Nobody is thinking beyond that right now. So the left are prepared to rally behind Fillon who might will either turn out to be a dangerous right wing lunatic, or a shrewd populist and pragmatist. But then of course he might also lose.

In comparison, the Uk doesn't look as screwed as all that.

Most battles are won by providing a path for the enemy to retreat in a way they can accept. Same in the political arena. In this case, the EU hardliners probably just need a concept they can accept to save face. At the moment, everything is being played according to EU nomenclature.

In the case of US Trade deals, Trump said we will be replacing "free trade" with "smart trade". This play on words is key. Who in their right political mind would reject a concept of being "smart"?

I think this conceptual pathway out is all the EU will need to "gracefully" back track, and allow the politicians to look like they are doing their jobs. Afterall, that is what most of them are simply after.
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