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Old 16.03.2017, 12:49
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marton marton is offline
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I don't need to read up in risk and probability and I'm quite aware of the principles of hedging and financial and stasticical modeling, but that's the thing with people who just can't let go of the details such as yourself, they never make it to the high level view.

A good arbiter of the expected outcome of events in any scale is to look at what bookmakers are predicting, because their job is to predict outcomes. If you can demonstrate that bookmakers offer better odds against the most likely outcome, please go ahead.
The whole business of bookmaking like all other forms of gambling is about cleverly setting odds in favour of the house so no matter what occurs they win; especially clever tricks like giving very high odds on unlikely events to draw in more punters.
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