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Old 16.03.2017, 13:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Yes exactly, you summarize my point perfectly. If everyone has it wrong the bookmaker has it wrong. So if we have an event and there are 10000 bets placed, then the bookie will have that at low odds. So the question is are 10,000 punters wrong?. Or more precisely in this context are the predictions of 10'000 people more or less accurate than someone who reads a load of books and makes an 'informed' statement sneering down at the simpleton who chose to follow the bookies view.

bookies normally pick the winner, I think stats should back that up.
This would be true if the bookies were a zero sum game. Fact is they change their prices to best hedge their positions and maximise profit. Their prices are based on expert opinions, actuarial work and modified as betting proceeds in order to faciliate hedging and possible arbitrage opportunities in the market.
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