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Old 06.09.2019, 16:22
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Dinivan Dinivan is offline
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Whilst I agree with the rest of your post, I can't agree on this, particularly as London, and many other UK cities, are hugely pro-EU. Liverpool, Manchester, York, Durham, Newcastle, Cardiff, Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, etc, all voted Remain by a considerable margin.

I honestly believe the tide of public perception has changed, and a lot of the change I've heard is over recent weeks. The PM announced a new investment program for a named number of hospitals. People have taken note if their local hospital wasn't on the last, particularly in my Leave voting home town. There's a feeling that they've been overlooked again by yet another Tory government.

I've said this before, but in my staunchly Labour home town, the EU Referendum was seen as a way of sticking two fingers up at Cameron. The heavier the current PM goes on Leave, the more my home town will do the exact opposite of what he wants because in their eyes, he's just the new fat cat Tory PM lording it over them. The actual EU is incidental.

A lot of people have finally woken up to "what the EU does for us". Again in my home town, the big story is about a 6yr old girl with a rare genetic condition. She's the only female in the UK with this condition and the only clinic that can treat her is in Poland, so the rush is on to raise 70k which is the subsidised cost of the treatment, and fly her to Poland in October, before the current Brexit deadline.
I agree with you. Apologies, where I said "London" I meant to say the politics in Westminster.

I may be pessimistic, but I'm afraid that Labour is out as it couldn't even achieve a significant gain against May due to the very dislikable personality of Corbyn and the party's unclear policies. Although the polls are indeed giving the LibDems a chance, with the FPTP system the tories still have a big probability of obtaining a majority and using it without mercy.

Let me extend: I think there is really a chance only if the LibDems managed to gain a significant number of votes from the tories. It is not impossible, as some of those voters may never consider voting Corbyn but they may see the LibDems as an acceptable alternative, as some MPs have indeed done by switching sides. In a 3-party race, with the FPTP system the outcome is unpredictable. However, as it is, the LibDems are probably also going to gain votes at the expense of Labour, which means that Westminster will probably look about the same in terms of MP representation, but those MPs will have gained their seats with an even smaller number votes in their constituencies. The conservative voters also know all of this, which is why in a national election, as per usual, they'll all ditch the Brexit party...

Last edited by Dinivan; 06.09.2019 at 16:37.
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