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Old 27.03.2020, 09:22
Chuff Chuff is offline
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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It's interesting to read all 'predictions' made in this thread. Ultimately, however, nobody knows where the S&P 500 will be in the next week, month, or year. If there was consensus that markets will be going down, they'll be down already. If there was consensus that markets will be going up, they'll be up already.

IMHO there are way too many unknowns for anyone to actually benefit from timing this market. Both on the upside (surprise-treatment, early vaccine, hot and early summer) and on the downside (US riots, 2nd/3rd wave, more protectionism).

Markets will either go up or down, so at any point there's a 50% chance each pundit will get it right. Those who are lucky enough to be right will come back boasting. And help build some FOMO for the rest. But how many times in a row can they get lucky?

I'll just stay the course and stick to my pre-defined investment strategy.
I think you are slightly simplifying and generalizing things for your own benefit there, which is fine, but it's not just a 50% chance toss of the coin in every instance and if you look at the context of the situation, despite the unknowns and unpredictability, it's possible to make some reasonable guesses as to whether there will potentially be a dip or an upside. It's still a guess with no guarantees, but at least it's based on some logic of what is happening in the world around us.

As for my own investing strategy, the tech market keeps going up and will keep going up long-term as the world becomes ever-more more tech reliant. Examples:
  • Amazon and other large e-commerce stores powerful to fight them off will eventually dominate the market and crush most smaller businesses. They will grow a lot in the next decades and also as they expand into other market areas they either aren't in yet or are only now just dipping a toe in the water.
  • Google et al will continue to dominate the landscape and will turn into the mega-corporations of the future.
  • Tesla, though it's having a rocky time now, will I believe continue to be a true innovator and be a key player in the future of electric transport and renewable energy. They also are linked with SpaceX, another Musk outfit which will be one of the few space-operational outfits in the next couple of decades. I fact, most things Musk-related will imo be key players in our future.

There are many other companies I could name that I believe, without dramatizing, have significant parts to play in the future landscape of mankind. Though I know it's hard to see when you are living in the present and have it in your heads that things are already getting really advanced, well, they really kind of aren't.

We are still in a time in history where the old is colliding with the new and many emerging technologies (nanotechnology, 3D printing, biotech, cybernetics, power, space travel and mining etc etc) are still in their infancy (or have yet to breakout of concept or development stages, which they will) and where corporations are still expanding and finding out where their limits lie. We haven't yet got a real idea of what these companies will turn into, but I will bet my right bum cheek that they will be the ones influencing how we live our lives a century from now and beyond.

Tech companies are the only thing I will put my money on, not only because it is an area that I follow very closely, but because I think they are the future. I always try not only to look at what is on the near horizon, but also some years ahead to where things are developing and heading. When I am old, my goal is to have a lot of money generated from investments in megacorporation stocks made while they were still relatively young like now. Money that will go to helping to establish and secure future generations of my family, whether my own children or my extended family as a whole.

Lets see if it works out.

Last edited by Chuff; 27.03.2020 at 09:58.
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