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Old 27.03.2020, 10:27
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I think you are slightly simplifying and generalizing things for your own benefit there, which is fine, but it's not just a 50% chance toss of the coin in every instance and if you look at the context of the situation, despite the unknowns and unpredictability, it's possible to make some reasonable guesses as to whether there will potentially be a dip or an upside. It's still a guess with no guarantees, but at least it's based on some logic of what is happening in the world around us.

As for my own investing strategy, the tech market keeps going up and will keep going up long-term as the world becomes ever-more more tech reliant. [...]
It's surely possible to make guesses. But where will it take you? After 15 years, ~92% of active funds underperform a market index [1]. These funds have people dedicated full-time, more experience, and more money & resources than you and I have. How are we supposed to do better by 'making guesses'? I personally advocate for buying the whole market regularly (e.g. monthly) and being a passive investor. I believe research and stats are on my side.

And don't get me wrong: I agree 100% with your point on tech. I also believe that it'll keep driving human progress and that it's likely to be less affected by the current working-remotely situation. But that's likely priced in already. At the time of writing, 3-month returns of the S&P 500 are -18.83%. Those of NASDAQ-100 are -13.58%. If you only invest in tech, you're likely to outperform the S&P 500 in the long run. But only because the beta of your portfolio will be higher. Higher risk, higher reward.

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If one can predict the markets say at 80% of moves then one can become multi millionaire quickly. No one can do such thing. We all make guesses and wish for the best. There are many indicators and news in the markets that can move the markets and you can get an idea about the next move but you need years of experience.

I try to implement a strategy that makes money without relying too much on predictions. Make money on the downside and the upside. It is not easy but it is possible.
Fully agree with the first part. Not even 80%. If you could predict 55% of the moves, you'll have a money machine. You would just have to spread your bets and let the law of large numbers apply. Virtually endless money. Only that I've never met anyone with endless money...

I disagree though on the 'needing years of experience' for the same arguments above. If you truly want a strategy that doesn't rely too much on predictions, follow the Bogleheads investment philosophy and be a passive investor. You won't be making money both on the way down and on the way though. That requires market timing. But market timing underperforms in the long run.
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