View Single Post
  #18  
Old 25.07.2020, 20:18
komsomolez's Avatar
komsomolez komsomolez is offline
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 1,439
Groaned at 64 Times in 43 Posts
Thanked 2,733 Times in 1,068 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: where covid masks are mandatory

Quote:
View Post
R is hovering around 1. Latest (15.07.2020) is 1.08, 95% confidence between 0.97 and 1.2.

https://ibz-shiny.ethz.ch/covid-19-re/

Strangely, it peaked at about 1.79 in mid june, and then decreased toward 1 by the end of june. Even though there were no significant changes in behaviour.

A slow increase can be managed. An explosive increase is more difficult. And that depends on K, which is related to the number of super-spreader events.
Yes, the issue is just that you only see the explosive increase when it is already there. And then you are likely in for at least another 10 days of spike.
Reply With Quote