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Old 16.08.2020, 21:16
HickvonFrick HickvonFrick is offline
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Really great news, a male candidate with the same lead in women voters as Hillary.
Thanks.
I think you should look at it more closely.

The gender gap in 2016 (11 points) was a solitary point higher than in 2012 (10 points), so you shouldn't presume that hilarys performance with women was remarkable, it wasn't. It's actually been between 7 and 11 points every election since 1996. Last time women voted for a republican president was Reagan in 84. And only then because he won 49/50 states, not because there wasn't a big gender gap. If only women voted states as red as South Carolina would be usually blue.

Hillary thus didn't really outperform with women (ok maybe a point or two better but nothing significant). Bidens lead with women (at 12 points) is about the amount it needs to be to just about win the popular vote. To be precise this corresponds to an overall lead of 1 to 5 points for the democrats if we once again see the same gender gap as per the previous 6 presidential elections (seems a reasonable assumption). That'd make the election too close to call on a uniform swing (given the electoral college slightly favours republicans on the current vote distribution).

If Bidens lead with women is +14 or more I'd expect the Dems to win. Below about +9 I think a republican win is likely. 12 is really slap back in the middle of toss up territory. Do you disagree?

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 16.08.2020 at 22:13.