Thread: Coronavirus
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Old 30.12.2020, 20:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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You appear to be irritated that I can substantiate my comments. Note that I do not post below for your benefit but for those that have a genuine interest in understanding excess mortality statistics.

Below is an abstract from a recent study published in October by S. Kortüm, P. Frey, D. Becker, H.-J. Ott, H-P. Schlaudt, Corona-Independent Excess Mortality Due to Reduced Use of Emergency Medical Care in the Corona Pandemic: A Population-Based Observational Study

Abstract

Background
A significant decrease in the number of cases of emergency medical care during the first phase of the Corona pandemic has been reported from various regions of the world. Due to the lack of or delayed use of medical assistance, particularly in the case of time-critical clinical pictures (myocardial infarction, stroke), a corona collateral damage syndrome is postulated regarding possible health consequences. The present study investigates changes in the use of preclinical and clinical emergency care and effects on overall mortality in a rural area.

Methods
The number of patients in the emergency department at the Klinikum Hochrhein and the ambulance service were retrospectively aggregated and analyzed regarding the total number and selected tracer diagnoses and alarm keywords. The investigation period was the 9th to 22nd calendar week 2020 compared to the identical period of the previous year. In addition, the death rates in the district were collected directly from the registries and related to the number of patients in emergency care.

Results
Overall, the number of patients in clinical and preclinical emergency care declined significantly during the investigation period. This concerned in particular emergency inpatient treatment of patients with exacerbations or complications of severe chronic diseases. At the same time, excess mortality occurred in April 2020, which was still highly significant even after excluding deaths on or with COVID-19.

Discussion
Only about 55 % of the excess mortality in April 2020 can be attributed to COVID-19 and is associated with the decline in inpatient emergency treatment, especially of chronically ill patients. Since a drift of patients with the use of other service providers is unlikely, we assume that fears of infection in overburdened hospitals, one-sided public communication and reporting, and the extent of contact restrictions have contributed significantly to the decline in case numbers and to excess mortality (collateral damage).

Conclusion
For similar situations in the future, it is strongly recommended to make crisis communication and media coverage more balanced so as not to prevent people with acute health problems from receiving medical assistance. Contact restrictions should be critically reviewed and limited to the objectively necessary minimum.

The study took place in Waldshut, Baden-Württemberg on the border with Koblenz in Canton Aargau. The full text article is available here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...58v1.full-text
LOL at your opening.

For the rest: Whatever the numbers, all of this is a direct consequence of Covid and people fearing it. People are avoiding hospitals because there is a significant risk of getting infected there (I know of three cases personally). Also, people have issues getting appointments. Currently, hospitals are not forced to postpone treatment by regulation, but by necessity as capacity is at limit. So yes, more detrimental effect on the general health system. To protect the health system for the benefit of everyone was why the measures were introduced.

Cause and effect. I don't know why this is so difficult.

Your Japan example is so ridiculous, I will not comment.
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