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Old 14.01.2021, 09:45
Urs Max Urs Max is offline
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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But you keep on ignoring me when I tell you the biggest advantage to date has been non-participation both in EMA and the EU Covid vaccine "solidarity" scheme - despite the overwhelming evidence that it's allowed a much quicker rollout. Despite the fact that the NHS is incredibly inefficient and bureaucratic.
Nobody forced the countries to participate, as such the UK's headstart has nothing to do with Brexit (oops, overlooked your mentioning this, sorry).

The rollout can't start before the vaccine's (provisional emergency) approval, that took 3wks longer than in the UK. However that also allowed for improved scrutiny, just imagine what would have happened if the Pfizer vaccine had turned out to be harmful.

And the producers are liable for damages in the EU. Conversely, Pfizer is immune in the UK, Pfizer and Moderna in the USA. In CH of course, too. In fact it may well be that all producers have managed to get legal immunity for the vaccine outside of the EU.
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The EU market will continue to decline as a share of world trade and at some point Britain will be able to treat the EU as just another trading partner.
If history is anything to go by the outlook is even poorer than the EU's, with or without Brexit.

Exports (goods + services) as share of GDP are basically constant and (ignoring a few short term extremes) in a sideways range of 15-18% over the timespan depicted with ~17% today. That implies that the UK's worldwide GDP share has sunk at least as quickly (probably much faster) as its share in exports. That decline seems to be much steeper than the EU's.

Chart courtesy of the House of Commons LIbrary. The PDF provides a rather interesting historic overview, you're probably interested.

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