Thread: Nordstream 2
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Old 08.06.2021, 20:27
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Re: Nordstream 2

Relax. Even when both pipes are completed (only one is close to complete now), Nordstream 2 will add barely 15% to the Russian export capacity to Europe, and otherwise Russia had now developed the infrastructure including icebreakers to deliver large quantities of LNG. Besides, Asia needs gas badly. Russia would have been fine either way, though letting the US bully Europe should bother them, although of course it should bother Western Europe even more so (sanctions against a German mayor and ministry ). The gas transit and fees through Poland and Ukraine are still secure, though more options will help make the system more robust and avoid the deadly winter shortages that were otherwise increasingly likely to happen in the East.

Germany, in particular, needs the extra capacity and supply safety. So does Switzerland and much of Western Europe, all the more as the North Sea is declining. The US could not care less about that, to the opposite in fact. Higher energy costs for Europe simply make these economies less competitive, offer more markets and firms for US firms to target, and generally makes Europe more pliant. Even the excuse of selling fracked US LNG instead is thin (not a durable or sustainable source, not price competitive without the subsidies and tax breaks).

What POd the Americans with NS 2 is that they could not pull off a repeat of the South Stream gambit (dashed line in the map in the post above). While temporarily killing South Stream, the US got to put offensive nuke-capable missile systems in Romania (aka, supposedly, antimissile capacity against NK ); close a path for Russian but also Central Asian exports; and leave the market open for US "partners" in the Middle East, especially Qatar and eventually Israel (all the more if Israel also manages to get its hand on the contested part of the Lebanese continental shelf). For the Arab autocracies, that required passage through Syria, hence all these parties inflaming the war when Assad did not play along. An extra prize for the US, and reason to occupy Eastern Syria indefinitely, is to prevent Iran from building export capacity via the same route. Turkey played it smart with Blue Stream, and even Bulgaria is now enabling the transit onwards to Bosnia, effectively recreating South Stream.

So really NS 2 is a plus for Western Europe; largely irrelevant to Eastern Europe; possibly allowing a plus for Southern Europe; a minor plus and symbolic achievement for Russia; and the US will just shrug it off and look for other ways to control its "allies"'' energy supply and build a cordon around Russia. Getting four bases in Norway is a big next step, already in the bag for them.

There are minor losers in Switzerland: Allseas, and Zurich Insurance. Caving in instantly to US threats when others did not is a blemish on these companies, if not on the country.

Last edited by XDr; 08.06.2021 at 20:48. Reason: typo
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