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Phil_MCR · #9 13.12.2022, 16:37

	Quote:	Disjoint
	Interactive brokers, they are super cheap for treasuries. For UK government bonds I use Hargreaves Lansdown. For regular bonds I use one of the Swiss major banks. In France stock wise I have Total and I am waiting for it to go back down to buy some more of it. For oil I go long brent futures and just roll them on interactive brokers, margin requirements are pretty low, but you better have your heart well anchored to sustain the daily moves in it! I think we are going straight for a big nice correction next year, and so do all the banks it seems. MS is particularly bearish with S&P at around 3.2k level. I prefer to just switch slowly into bonds and wait for things to come down. Inflation came a bit weaker again just now, so you might be right in terms of rate topping at 5%, but let's see - I think we are vastly underestimating the persistent inflation in wages and the service sector. It's impossible to hire anyone for anything at the moment - a lot of useless university degrees teaching you how to select your pronouns and no one with actual skills the economy needs... Blackstone is coming out with a PE product for retail clients soon, so I'll buy some of that via my Swiss bank. I am waiting to see how Q1 plays out really, and then will re-assess, but I don't think there is any rush to place cash here... Although who knows, I might be completely wrong and we are to get a monster equity rally, but I highly doubt that )))

with higher energy and de-globalization, i think inflation will be a longer term trend as energy costs feed through - but i am in the camp that believes this is, at least a first order transitory phenomenon even if taking place over a period of months/years. what is unclear to me, is whether higher order effects continue the inflationary effects for longer - which might not be too bad a thing considering everybody was worrying about deflation until a few months ago. i still expect a deflationary blip in the short term due to inventory levels and recession in any case.

however, higher rates isn't going to print more oil and i have doubts whether the Fed really has the stomach to cause and maintain a long recession to dampen down demand to balance the inflationary forces.

i'm half-expecting a monster rally triggered by CPI today and Fed slowdown tomorrow.