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-   -   What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value] (https://www.englishforum.ch/business-entrepreneur/108864-what-going-today-stock-market-big-falls-value.html)

ukal123 15.03.2011 12:18

What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
SMI down 3.6 percent
Asian market down 5.4
Europien market index down 3.01 percent
the list gos on....

Is now the time to buy ?
Are we really all so dependent on the current crisis in Japan ?

Or is this just an over reaction and everyone is just panicing and selling off?

Lets hear what the pros have to say on eg, thats if they are not to busy selling off !

Any good tipps on what stock to look at ?

bigblue2 15.03.2011 12:21

Re: What the hell is going on today @ the stock market
 
I dunno, maybe because the worlds 3rd largest economy has come to a stand still and is having rolling blackouts at the moment, maybe?

Deep Purple 15.03.2011 12:24

Re: What the hell is going on today @ the stock market
 
According to BBC News it is not unexpected or extreme considering the circumstances. That sounds logical to me, with no specific knowledge of such things.

The_Love_Doctor 15.03.2011 12:42

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Sovereign debt problems... Middle east / North Africa unrest... Japanese natural disaster which could lead to a nuclear crisis... hence the flight from equities... again it's very easy to look at things retrospectively... investors are just scared... wouldn't you??

Divesnowboy 15.03.2011 12:45

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
buy gold or silver and short the Japanese market (is that possible?)

The_Love_Doctor 15.03.2011 12:47

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Divesnowboy (Post 1135729)
buy gold or silver and short the Japanese market (is that possible?)

if you're asking you probably shouldn't... :rolleyes:

Divesnowboy 15.03.2011 13:44

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Love_Doctor (Post 1135734)
if you're asking you probably shouldn't... :rolleyes:

Well it isn't possible from my account...either way, wouldn't want to take advantage of the bad situation there, bad karma.......

Divesnowboy 15.03.2011 13:47

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Divesnowboy (Post 1135729)
buy gold or silver and short the Japanese market (is that possible?)

though, I will be staying away for now...who knows really?

15.03.2011 14:39

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Financial markets are doing what financial markets do. Acting as a herd and running for safety when faced with a threat. Stocks down; Gold down; Treasuries up; CHF up. Risk is off and liquidity is the name of the game. Is there a risk of overreaction? Of course. Whether it's a buying opportunity right now is irrelevant though unless you're brave and feeling lucky - you don't stand in front of a panicked herd when it's stampeding towards you unless you're prepared to get trampled. Even if the reaction is overblown, it doesn't mean the markets can't go lower. This is as much about sentiment as anything since nobody, and I mean nobody, can their hands around the extent of what is going on in Japan.

grumpygit 15.03.2011 14:42

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
I would say that Japan is just an excuse to sell an overbought market, whether it be commodities or stocks or currencies.
The best advice is to look at the fundamentals at this time, and then pick your moment to get long, knowing that it will be very volatile, and use those stop losses for goodness sake.

15.03.2011 14:58

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by grumpygit (Post 1135900)
I would say that Japan is just an excuse to sell an overbought market

I'd put it a different way. Financial markets don't understand how this will play out any better than the rest of the population. So they're selling off to hedge to themselves against the worst case scenario. That's how traders think. The time to start picking is when the smoke clears because until then, things could go lower as the world speculates.

grumpygit 15.03.2011 15:10

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nev (Post 1135923)
I'd put it a different way. Financial markets don't understand how this will play out any better than the rest of the population. So they're selling off to hedge to themselves against the worst case scenario. That's how traders think. The time to start picking is when the smoke clears because until then, things could go lower as the world speculates.

Well I think thats a bit light tbh. Once you see the size of debt that the jap govt will have to borrow, and you see the cost to LLoyds and other insurance for rebuilding, then you realise it is a) going to seriously weaken the jap economy b) have a knock on effect throughout the world in financial institutions and c) possibly raise the cost of some resources to rebuild: I would say that is what they are thinking and as the markets are overbought, its" take yr profit" time, before it evaporates, and that is why you have to revert to fundamentals rather than use some techs on a few charts to give you the courage to trade it. But I might be wrong.

dino 15.03.2011 16:11

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Here's my take

a) globally, markets were overbought before this started. Japan provided a good reason to pull back

b) investors were skittish about Japan's debt (the world's largest, some 2x GDP) already, and are now worried that further huge amounts will have to be borrowed to finance rebuilding. cannot be good ...

c) Japan is no longer a manufacturing powerhouse, but it is a critical link in the global supply chain ... especially when it comes to microelectronics. Scores of companies will have to re-jig their supply lines >> disruptions and higher costs >> lower profits

15.03.2011 17:57

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by grumpygit (Post 1135940)
I would say that is what they are thinking and as the markets are overbought, its" take yr profit" time

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino (Post 1136002)
Here's my take...globally, markets were overbought before this started. Japan provided a good reason to pull back

I dare say you both have a point. However a 20% drop in the Nikkei and the kind of shifts we've seen in global markets in the last 24 hours are not "pulling back" or "taking profits." At least not as defined in financial markets. To coin a phrase, "I think thats a bit light tbh"

ukal123 17.03.2011 11:32

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
I think the whole thing is over rated, if you look at the history of most stocks thy never have a constant line going upwards, there is always something like once a month that makes them dropp sharply and thats when i usually get it, buy something wait a month or so till it recovers and once i made a 10 percent profit sell again. Lets see what happends, im very posetiv about UBS"s come back this year, and bought at 16.40 it might go further down short term but it wont be long till it gos right back atleast till 17.80. And for long term I can see UBS going to atleast the half of its all time high...

LastChance! 17.03.2011 13:23

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by dino (Post 1136002)
Here's my take
a) globally, markets were overbought before this started. Japan provided a good reason to pull back

Agreed, despite this "recovery," most countries economies are still on edge.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino (Post 1136002)
b) investors were skittish about Japan's debt (the world's largest, some 2x GDP) already, and are now worried that further huge amounts will have to be borrowed to finance rebuilding. cannot be good ...

This problem (unfortunately) isn't unique to Japan. The U.S. and most of Europe finds themselves in over their heads. Rebuilding of Japan might prove to transform it completely. Hard to say for sure, but certainly not good in the short term.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino (Post 1136002)
c) Japan is no longer a manufacturing powerhouse, but it is a critical link in the global supply chain ... especially when it comes to microelectronics. Scores of companies will have to re-jig their supply lines >> disruptions and higher costs >> lower profits

Japans position in the global supply chain will have a major effect on the global "recovery" going forward. The question is, who (and how) steps in to fill that role? Companies that rely on "Just in Time" inventory are in for a rude awakening.

amogles 17.03.2011 13:32

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Divesnowboy (Post 1135803)
Well it isn't possible from my account...either way, wouldn't want to take advantage of the bad situation there, bad karma.......

Surely buying Japanese shares is showing confidence in those companies and strengthening them in a difficult time. Is that taking advantage?

Treverus 17.03.2011 13:48

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
I had a far too large share of our portfoilio on Japanese values... as I didn't trust the Euro and only lost on my US investments (It is amazing to see how the S&P went up so nicely but still loses me money as the dollar went more down than the index up...)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ukal123 (Post 1135697)
Is now the time to buy ?

I keep my current Japanese stocks and wait what happens (because I was too late to sell before the big hit on Monday.). If the reactors do not blow up big time, I will buy more in a couple of days.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ukal123 (Post 1135697)
Are we really all so dependent on the current crisis in Japan ?

Or is this just an over reaction and everyone is just panicing and selling off?

I would say it is mostly panic. Japan is a massive economy, but clearly not as important for the EU as vice versa. We will survive without Toyotas...

Quote:

Originally Posted by ukal123 (Post 1135697)
Any good tipps on what stock to look at ?

I have a track record of buying the wrong one and if you do not really want to read loads of info and have a huge amount of money to invest: I'd go with a passively managed product based on the index. So you hedge your risk that one company goes down and bet on a large part of the national economy instead. You will find various ETFs serving your needs.

Hadley72 17.03.2011 14:18

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Divesnowboy (Post 1135729)
buy gold or silver and short the Japanese market (is that possible?)

The Japanese market is oversold I think it is also unethical to short....
Personally I would follow the situation and buy when it's dropping like a stone as yesterday or when the reactors are cooled down eventually (but in that case you will buy at higher prices).
I would sell the yen since in the long term the currency will have to be weaker...now it can stay strong and get stronger for repatriation effects (or speculators anticipating the repatriation...)
Gold: Hold it
Silver: buy it lower
Oil: buy

Hadley72 17.03.2011 14:20

Re: What is going on today in the stock market? [Big falls in value]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ukal123 (Post 1138167)
I think the whole thing is over rated, if you look at the history of most stocks thy never have a constant line going upwards, there is always something like once a month that makes them dropp sharply and thats when i usually get it, buy something wait a month or so till it recovers and once i made a 10 percent profit sell again. Lets see what happends, im very posetiv about UBS"s come back this year, and bought at 16.40 it might go further down short term but it wont be long till it gos right back atleast till 17.80. And for long term I can see UBS going to atleast the half of its all time high...

Why so optimist about UBS? I think banks are trading stocks but I would not hold them for the long term...


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