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  #21  
Old 02.05.2012, 12:09
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Re: weather forecast failures

Considering how much money weather people take from state (no real figures, but in every developed country it's quite a lot) and how powerful computers they have (and getting better every year, also improving simulation software running on it) one would expect, that in 2012 we have quite accurate forecasts let's say 48 hours ahead. But I see no improvement over last 15 years. So why waste that money?

As for ruined weekend - not for everybody going out means just walking out of house/flat. Of course, in this case current situation is more than OK.
But let's imagine there are people who go to these hilly parts down there, they call 'em Alps for whatever reason. Most people seeing bad forecast for next day will not head for full day trek (or multiday) to 3000m peaks when it should rain/snow.
For me, wasted weekend (not getting wasted for whole weekend ) is the one I could spend doing mountaineering, via ferratas, ski touring etc. but cancelled plans just to find out I shouldn't. Of course they are sometimes right, but for my/our money I expect they should be right (almost) all the time, at least for next 48 hours (over that flipping coin would be equally effective). Hence the rant.
I know how complex these simulations are, how easily dew-point can flip etc. but hearing excuses about complex environment etc. doesn't work for me.
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  #22  
Old 02.05.2012, 12:14
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Re: weather forecast failures

Ah so it was nice and sunny? That explains why some of our plants did not survive the weekend...
(We were away and did not bother asking anyone to take care of them, as based on the forecast, I didn't think it was necessary).

I have found that in reality the weather is usually better than the forecast. But as others have stated, apparently it is a very difficult country to make forecasts for.
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  #23  
Old 02.05.2012, 13:42
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Re: weather forecast failures

I've found Meteocentrale to be the most useful of all the weather sites I've seen, as it's usually fairly accurate down to the PLZ level:

http://www.meteocentrale.ch/

One must keep in mind that this is Switzerland, though - weather surprises are a simple fact of life.

(That's why they invented packable Gore-tex. )
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  #24  
Old 02.05.2012, 16:45
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Re: wealther forecast failures

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Well the app on the ipod/the weather forcast in the newspapers/lots of weather webpages, show rainy weather in Geneva now.

Im sitting in a tshirt with the balcony door open looking at the very lightly clouded sky.

Hmmm.....
But by 10pm it was lashing with rain last night (1 May 2012).
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Old 02.05.2012, 16:55
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Re: weather forecast failures

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Considering how much money weather people take from state (no real figures, but in every developed country it's quite a lot) and how powerful computers they have (and getting better every year, also improving simulation software running on it) one would expect, that in 2012 we have quite accurate forecasts let's say 48 hours ahead. But I see no improvement over last 15 years.
If only life were that simple.

Small differences in initial conditions yield widely diverging outcomes for chaotic systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general.This happens even though these systems are determinitistic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved. In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
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  #26  
Old 02.05.2012, 20:30
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Re: weather forecast failures

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For me, wasted weekend (not getting wasted for whole weekend ) is the one I could spend doing mountaineering, via ferratas, ski touring etc. but cancelled plans just to find out I shouldn't.
There is a number you can call to get a detailed mountain weather forecast: see http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/web/...o_alpine0.html
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  #27  
Old 02.05.2012, 21:02
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Re: weather forecast failures

Apparently there's a swiss guy that plonks himself on an an active ants nest and the ants tell him the weather forecast.

Apparently he's very accurate with his predictions. Perhaps you can try and find his number...
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