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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #7781  
Old 17.02.2017, 15:24
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'd be more inclined to believe those polls if they actually managed to get numbers adding up to 100.
It's called rounding. Perfectly correct.
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  #7782  
Old 17.02.2017, 15:28
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Keep talking, Tony

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832555587791646720

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832575795415625728



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  #7783  
Old 17.02.2017, 16:15
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm pro EU and I think it's good for the long haul but right now....I don't know how I would vote
I'm afraid is a bit late for Brexit. Can you vote in the French elections?
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  #7784  
Old 17.02.2017, 19:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Isn't Blair in jail yet?
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  #7785  
Old 18.02.2017, 13:23
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

In the meantime, the uncertainty for EU residents in the UK increases. Refused residency because they don't have health insurance? What happened to reciprocal agreements? Seems that unless you are in work, you must have an EHIC card from your own EU country, in date, and this will only be valid for4 emergencies.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39014191?...source=twitter

That includes women married to British men, and vice versa, but who stay at home to look after kids or don't work. There must be 1000s in the same situation.

Last edited by Odile; 18.02.2017 at 13:39.
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  #7786  
Old 18.02.2017, 16:52
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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In the meantime, the uncertainty for EU residents in the UK increases. Refused residency because they don't have health insurance? What happened to reciprocal agreements?
It has nothing to do with reciprocal arrangements, it is a standard requirement throughout the EU for obtaining permanent residence status if you want to obtain that right under the EU directive.

But the EU does not prevent the UK government from granting residence status to who ever it wishes. So if they wanted to they could simply ignore it and go ahead an issue permanent residence status. No EU agreement is required.
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  #7787  
Old 18.02.2017, 19:03
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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In the meantime, the uncertainty for EU residents in the UK increases. Refused residency because they don't have health insurance? What happened to reciprocal agreements? Seems that unless you are in work, you must have an EHIC card from your own EU country, in date, and this will only be valid for4 emergencies.
I think it was like this even before Brexit...and rightly so. What do you think it's not fair here? If you're not working, your spouse is not working either it means you're a tourist and you should have a health insurance from your home country. Simple.
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Old 18.02.2017, 19:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I think it was like this even before Brexit...and rightly so. What do you think it's not fair here? If you're not working, your spouse is not working either it means you're a tourist and you should have a health insurance from your home country. Simple.
Odile is interested as she gets her Swiss health insurance free with only 300 CHF franchise, paid for by the UK taxpayer. It's a case of wanting your cake & eating it.
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  #7789  
Old 18.02.2017, 21:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Odile is interested as she gets her Swiss health insurance free with only 300 CHF franchise, paid for by the UK taxpayer. It's a case of wanting your cake & eating it.
Just to be clear: I didn't intend to imply anything about Odile's personal situation. I am sure she's doing nothing else apart from whatever the law/bilateral agreements stipulate in regards to pensioners in her situation. Odile, my sincere apologies if you interpret it this way, you know I wouldn't do it on purpose.

Re. status of people from EU: perhaps it will be an ugly "divorce", perhaps not. I personally find some of the requirements quite reasonable.
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  #7790  
Old 18.02.2017, 21:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Thanks gm- of course I didn't take your comment personally. My personal situation has of course nothing to do with the above post I'm quite sure most here understood that .

As I was married to a Brit, even though I didn't work for many years due to an accident and later as a SAHM - I was always covered by the NHS. Of course I worked before and after, about 30 years, and get a UK pension, both State and teachers' pension- so am fully entitled to reciprocal agreements as a Brit- albeit naturalised (1972) - franchise 300 + 10% - so paid 1000CHF for my recent knee replacement.
My spouse is a Brit and of course always worked - and that is the issue with those married to working Brits who are suddenly not covered, when they have always been in the past (OH worked for 41 years- I imagine quite a bit longer than the person who made the above comment- as well as 140hrs to 90 hrs per week, and only about 50 in the last 2 years before retirement- but this is of course totally irrelevant).

Last edited by Odile; 18.02.2017 at 21:46.
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  #7791  
Old 18.02.2017, 21:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Thanks gm- of course I didn't take your comment personally. My personal situation has of course nothing to do with the above post I'm quite sure most her understood that .

As I was married to a Brit, even though I didn't work for many years due to an accident and later as a SAHM - I was always covered by the NHS. Of course I worked before and after, about 30 years, and get a UK pension, both State and teachers' pension- so am fully entitled to reciprocal agreements as a Brit- albeit naturalised (1972).
My spouse is a Brit and of course always worked - and that is the issue with those married to working Brits who are suddenly not covered, when they have always been in the past.
The UK is very generous paying for 'free' healthcare, (paid for by taxpayers it's not free at all). Of course Swiss people who lived & worked in CH have to pay their own health insurance when working & in retirement.
Makes the UK OAP worth 50% more than it looks on paper...... at the moment!
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  #7792  
Old 18.02.2017, 21:52
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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In the meantime, the uncertainty for EU residents in the UK increases. Refused residency because they don't have health insurance? What happened to reciprocal agreements? Seems that unless you are in work, you must have an EHIC card from your own EU country, in date, and this will only be valid for4 emergencies.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39014191?...source=twitter

That includes women married to British men, and vice versa, but who stay at home to look after kids or don't work. There must be 1000s in the same situation.
It has always been the case but I guess they are tightening things up now in the same way that they are trying to ensure overseas patients pay for their hospital treatment.
Even uk nationals who have lived overseas for a few years technically have a waiting period before they have access to free NHS treatment and have to prove that they are actually resident. How rigidly this is implemented seems to vary widely depending on where you are.
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  #7793  
Old 20.02.2017, 01:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Oxford University set to break with 700 years of tradition and open a foreign campus - after France offers Brexit sweetener

Jean-Michel Blanquer, the former director-general of the French ministry for education, confirmed that efforts were under way to lure Britain’s best universities across the Channel.

Oxford has been told that any campus opened in France could have French legal status and would continue to receive EU funding.

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  #7794  
Old 20.02.2017, 09:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Did I understand you correctly? You want to send all the foreign nurses, doctors, IT people back to their home countries.... why? Britain has not trained enough people for about 50 years, and desperately needs MORE skilled employees. Where will they come from? The unemployment queue does not have very many skilled people!
Haha, yes. Look, there will be some solutions


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-after-brexit

and here

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7345246.html

In Theresa May's view they are a disposable asset anyway.
Why everyone is up in their arms for whatever Trump does and says and no-one gives a s**t about their own country? Why no-one criticises the persons and their alternative facts on which the entire pro-Brexit campaign was based?
No need to answer, it's called hypocrisy.

Last edited by greenmount; 20.02.2017 at 10:03.
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  #7795  
Old 21.02.2017, 11:04
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

<sigh> Brexit is like the sh*tty gift that keeps on giving
Last year I was caught up in the massive queues to get to Dover, waiting 4 hours and missing 2 crossings. That could be the new normal.

Post-Brexit customs gridlock could choke UK trade, experts warn

Leading tranport figures urge ministers to act to prevent a return of customs checks leaving UK economy in chaos

The introduction of customs checks at Dover after Britain leaves the EU could bring gridlock to the south-east of England, with lorries queueing for up to 30 miles in Kent to get across the channel, senior figures in the transport industry have warned.

Short of cutting into the famous Cliffs of Dover, the busy cargo port has no room to expand to accommodate paperwork checks for the 2.6m trucks that pass through the port every year.

Eurotunnel, which caters for another 1.6m lorries a year at its Euroshuttle transporter a few miles inland, is facing the same problem.

John Keefe, its spokesman, said: “On one side of Eurotunnel we have an area of outstanding beauty, so you can’t build to the left, and on the right we have the motorway; then you have to look at moving up, down, or back along the motorway.”

The problem for business is not just the prospect of tariffs in a new customs regime but the disruption to the free flow of goods. “There are no warehouses any more, everything is about ‘just in time’,” says Keefe, referring to a strategy for managing goods that ensures they arrive only shortly before they are needed in order to reduce costs.

A bottleneck in Dover would affect businesses from the car industry in the Midlands to farmers in Wales and fisheries in Scotland.

In the summer of 2015, a French ferry workers strike led to more than 7,000 trucks backed up the motorway almost as far as Maidstone. With as many as 16,000 trucks a day using Dover, the potential for a repeat of that episode alarms business.

“If you are looking at stopping trucks, you are looking at stopping the economy,” says Keefe.

Businesses lost £21m-worth of stock due to the traffic chaos in 2015. Live shellfish destined for Paris markets and other perishable goods were dumped because of the delays, said the Road Haulage Association (RHA).

An emergency traffic management strategy at the time, called Operation Stack, is estimated to have cost the Kent economy £1.5m a day, with parts of the M2 turned into a vast lorry park.

“It is absolutely critical that UK customs takes this issue seriously and is prepared to handle it from day one because even one day’s delay is disruption to the supply chain and costs to trade,” said Jack Semple, the director of policy at the RHA. “We do not believe that HMRC is at all resourced to do this at the moment.”

Michael Lux, a customs trade lawyer who recently gave evidence to a Commons select committee on the challenges facing Theresa May on the border in Ireland, said the paperwork alone was going to add administration time to businesses, with all cargo required to have a customs licence or “export declaration” form.

UK exporters could be processed in blue and green lorry lanes to speed up traffic, but this would require investment in infrastructure, and space that is virtually non-existent in Dover.

Asked if the UK would be ready for a reintroduction of customs in two years, Lux replied: “You make me laugh. You will need at least double the number of customs officials than you have now. They will need to be recruited and trained and this takes time”.

Tim Dixon, a freight clearance operator at Motis in the Western Docks, deals with non-EU trucks in Dover. He says many customs experts in the port retired or were made redundant when trade barriers were lifted in 1992.

“There used to be 120 agents based in Dover before 1992, and now we have less than 30. Just doing the paperwork could be a nightmare,” he said.

Semple has called on the government to urgently engage with business before it is too late. If trucks coming from the EU are treated like non-EU trucks in future, the port will be in permanent gridlock, say local customs experts.

Richard Catt – the director of PSL Freight, which clears non-EU trucks – remembers customs operations before barriers were lifted.

“With Brexit, we are potentially coming full circle, but we cannot return to the systems pre-1993, or the southern road corridor would bring the UK to a halt,” he said. “We need the government to prepare for the worst and plan for the best outcome. What is crucial is to keep port, tunnel and roads free running. This requires them to engage now, invest early and involve the local knowledge.”

One option would be to have clearance points further inland.

Neal Williams, the managing director of Priority Freight, a haulier offering express freight to companies including Jaguar Land Rover and Airbus, suggested: “Maybe you could have multiple customs checks around the country. But everything would have to be planned, phased in, impact studies conducted, implementation studies done and there would have to be the infrastructure for trucks to make the customs stop.”

Another, perhaps more elegant solution, would be to do both import and export customs clearance in Calais. “That way you wouldn’t need two stops,” said Lux.

British police already conduct passport checks in Calais – extending that to include customs checks would require talks with France.

Charlie Elphicke, the Conservative MP for Dover and Deal, believes the solution is electronic checks. He said he was consulting with local businesses and experts such as the former head of Border Force and consultants at Accenture to come up with a proposal in the spring.

Whatever path is ultimately taken, May’s outline of her hard Brexit intentions has Dover and all UK ports on a nervous countdown. “Two years? it might as well be two minutes,” said Andrew Austin, of Priority Freight.

Experts say the port has nowhere to expand if new warehouses and checkpoints are needed.

To ease the transition, the UK could adapt a “trusted trader” status such as that which operates on the Mexican/US border, Lux said. This would allow “clean” companies, such as large brand suppliers and carmakers, to be waved through without the risk of random checks for “misdeclared” cargo.

But this will not help trucks that pick up cargo from different suppliers.

“Customs and freight agents would need a vast amount of additional staff to cope with the volume of vehicles that will require customs clearance. If the load consists of cargo destined for various importers in the UK, there is a possibility that this could be covered by over 50 transit documents that require processing,” said Dixon.

Williams predicted that Britain would “muddle through”, but he is concerned that there is no support from any government body, no engagement with business or the town and no sense that anyone has been assigned to working on a contingency plan.

His company already switches to air cargo when the port or tunnel are disrupted, but he said the unknowns were preventing businesses from planning their futures: “We don’t mean to be so downbeat, but this is a headwind we did not need and is not welcome. It’s a bleak picture.”

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  #7796  
Old 21.02.2017, 11:25
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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<sigh> Brexit is like the sh*tty gift that keeps on giving
Last year I was caught up in the massive queues to get to Dover, waiting 4 hours and missing 2 crossings. That could be the new normal.

Post-Brexit customs gridlock could choke UK trade, experts warn


Source
Uniquely British view!!
There is an implicit assumption here that the mainland Europe ports will also staff up to handle the new load!
Imagine the potential chaos there!!
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  #7797  
Old 21.02.2017, 23:06
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Farmers have warned that food will “rot in the fields” and Britain will be unable to produce what it eats if the government cannot guarantee that growers will continue to have access to tens of thousands of EU workers after Brexit.

Meurig Raymond, president of the National Farmers’ Union said the industry would require 90,000 seasonal workers a year by 2021, on top of more than 250,000 permanent workers – more than three-quarters of whom now come from the EU.

The value of the pound, which reduces the value of pay seasonal workers send home to EU countries, and uncertainty over longer-term UK residency rights are discouraging workers from eastern Europe. High levels of employment in countries such as Romania and Bulgaria are also squeezing the supply of workers.
Source

Govt reaction is that farmers should invest more in automation?
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  #7798  
Old 22.02.2017, 17:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Uniquely British view!!
There is an implicit assumption here that the mainland Europe ports will also staff up to handle the new load!
Imagine the potential chaos there!!
Back in the days before such checks were abolished, there was something called TIR. Lorries could clear customs at a local customs point rather than on the border. Seals would then prove the load hadn't been tampered with and customs officials waved such lorries through.

It would be odd if 30 years later, we wouldn't be able to emulate what was once common practice.
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Old 22.02.2017, 17:16
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Some assume that when confronted with a problem, you sit and live with it forever.

Wait a minute, that is not the Brexit approach to reality, that is the Remain attitude.
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Old 22.02.2017, 17:22
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Some assume that when confronted with a problem, you sit and live with it forever.

Wait a minute, that is not the Brexit approach to reality, that is the Remain attitude.
That's how we do it in Britain. We still have a monarchy to get rid of 1200 years later.
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