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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #9441  
Old 04.08.2017, 11:32
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Those wines are considerably cheaper than French wine, so it's an obvious thing to do when money is tight. UK Purchasing power is not that different to 4-5 years ago, it's been considerably weaker since 1973 as well.
So all French wines are expensive? They have the same range of cheap paint stripper to ultra expensive as everyone else (yes, you can find Australian or US wines upwards of CHF 400 a bottle)

WTO rules would put them on the same duty footing as everyone else....except that most non-EU wine imports are already the subject of EU free trade agreements and there is zero import duty already. So your non-EU wines are mostly already on exactly the same basis as EU wines.

All a move to WTO rules would do is potentially make ALL wine equally more expensive.

Even for sparkling wines (mostly not included in the free trade arrangments) the non-EU import duty is anyway miniscule compared to the general UK alcohol duties that apply to everything. Maximum of € 0.24 a bottle I saw quoted.
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  #9442  
Old 04.08.2017, 11:34
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Those wines are considerably cheaper than French wine, so it's an obvious thing to do when money is tight. UK Purchasing power is not that different to 4-5 years ago, it's been considerably weaker since 1973 as well.
You keep harking back to this utopian 1973. Britain was the 5th biggest economy in the world back then and it still is today...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_GDP_(nominal)

http://en.classora.com/reports/t2436...p?edition=1973

We had 7.5x less GDP that #1 spot back in '73 and only have 7x less now, so if anything we've caught up.

This is despite the fact that China and India have emerged as a world powers, so if anything we've done incredibly well, considering.
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  #9443  
Old 04.08.2017, 11:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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You keep harking back to this utopian 1973. Britain was the 5th biggest economy in the world back then and it still is today...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_GDP_(nominal)

http://en.classora.com/reports/t2436...p?edition=1973

We had 7.5x less GDP that #1 spot back in '73 and only have 7x less now, so if anything we've caught up.

This is despite the fact that China and India have emerged as a world powers, so if anything we've done incredibly well, considering.
It's the 6th largest economy in 2017, your looking at old data
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  #9444  
Old 04.08.2017, 11:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Those wines are considerably cheaper than French wine, so it's an obvious thing to do when money is tight. UK Purchasing power is not that different to 4-5 years ago, it's been considerably weaker since 1973 as well.
Well looking at purchasing power, wine was massively more expensive / less affordable in the UK in the 70s than now.

On top of that almost all of it was sweet German paint stripper called Liebfraumilch. Mostly Blue Nun (does that still exist).
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  #9445  
Old 04.08.2017, 11:43
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It's the 6th largest economy in 2017, your looking at old data
That won't be assessed until the end of the year and will depend on the FX rates until then.
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  #9446  
Old 04.08.2017, 11:48
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It's the 6th largest economy in 2017, your looking at old data
Well, Brexit has gone well so far then.
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  #9447  
Old 04.08.2017, 11:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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They won't pay more, the Germans will have to cover the cost, just as they have covered the exchange rate change over the last year. Thats how business works, the Japanese have been doing it for 40 years.
That is not how business works! Manufacturers will be willing to take the hit for a short period but after that one of two things will happen: the price will go up and the consumer will pay or the manufacturer will come up with a cheap model to suit the U.K. pocket.

Carrying costs and FX issues for 40 years would put you out of business.
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  #9448  
Old 04.08.2017, 12:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Why wouldn't you still be able to fly to Luton? People fly between non EU countries all the time, do you think they'll stop flights to the UK just because they leave the EU?
Airlines cannot fly aircraft to and from any point they wish, they need assigned routes, schedules, aircraft locations etc and all of this is done at a European level and the decision for 2019 will happen in October 2018. As it stands, without any agreement, the U.K. will be excluded.
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  #9449  
Old 04.08.2017, 12:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Airlines cannot fly aircraft to and from any point they wish, they need assigned routes, schedules, aircraft locations etc and all of this is done at a European level and the decision for 2019 will happen in October 2018. As it stands, without any agreement, the U.K. will be excluded.
So there won't be any flights at all between the EU and the UK for at least a year?

Do you really believe this is going to happen?
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  #9450  
Old 04.08.2017, 13:06
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That is not how business works! Manufacturers will be willing to take the hit for a short period but after that one of two things will happen: the price will go up and the consumer will pay or the manufacturer will come up with a cheap model to suit the U.K. pocket.

Carrying costs and FX issues for 40 years would put you out of business.
Business's price an item at the maximum price the market will bear, the cost of producing the item has zero relevance to final cost.
Looking at buying a UK reg BMW & the spec is way different to CH, can't find a 10 year old 330ix. Mainly small engine, Manuel & Diesel none of which I want, so that is already being done.
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  #9451  
Old 04.08.2017, 13:34
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So there won't be any flights at all between the EU and the UK for at least a year?

Do you really believe this is going to happen?
No, I believe the EU hold all the cards here, so Britain will "pay" through the nose to avoid political embarassment. Mrs May has already shown she'll do that with the DUP, so I'm sure flights will continue as normal.
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  #9452  
Old 04.08.2017, 14:05
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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No, I believe the EU hold all the cards here, so Britain will "pay" through the nose to avoid political embarassment. Mrs May has already shown she'll do that with the DUP, so I'm sure flights will continue as normal.
Nevertheless the NHS will get a lot of new funding due to Brexit
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  #9453  
Old 04.08.2017, 16:15
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Business's price an item at the maximum price the market will bear, the cost of producing the item has zero relevance to final cost.
I have no idea what business school you went to, but if you continue over the long haul to sell below cost you will go bust! How do I know this? Because I spent over 10 years working in insolvency clearing up the messes your kind of logic created.
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  #9454  
Old 04.08.2017, 16:19
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I have no idea what business school you went to, but if you continue over the long haul to sell below cost you will go bust! How do I know this? Because I spent over 10 years working in insolvency clearing up the messes your kind of logic created.
Then pull out of the market, thats in reality what happens unless you think it's worth retaining your biggest & historically MOST PROFITABLE market......

You should know as an insolvency practitioner, what happens when costs are too high, there is always a cheaper solution.
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  #9455  
Old 04.08.2017, 16:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So there won't be any flights at all between the EU and the UK for at least a year?

Do you really believe this is going to happen?
Well if you listen to Michael O'Leary, he certainly seems to believe that it is at this stage a definite possibility. The bit I don't get is why the aircraft have to be moved as well, but it seems to be a requirement as well. He indicated that without an agreement, Ryan Air will start moving aircraft out of the U.K. at the end of next summer.

And the other issue is on what basis UK tourists can travel to the Schengen Area? They are not a member of Schengen, they don't have a visa free travel agreement with it. And at the same time they will no longer be able to avail of FMOP rights under EU/EEA/CH agreements as in the past.

I think it is a tall order to get this sorted out in the next 12 or 13 months, given all the other negotiations that are required.
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  #9456  
Old 04.08.2017, 16:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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You should know as an insolvency practitioner, what happens when costs are too high, there is always a cheaper solution.
And now we are back to where I told you you'd eventually pay more or get an inferior model.

End of story.
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  #9457  
Old 04.08.2017, 16:40
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well if you listen to Michael O'Leary, he certainly seems to believe that it is at this stage a definite possibility.
Michael O'Leary is a wind-up artist. When he talks about things such as standing places on planes he knows full well he's just winding people up. But he does it to make a broader point.

In this case the broader point he is trying to make is

1) Michael O'Leary is smart
2) Michael O'Leary is cool
3) Michael O'Leary
4) Ryanair is a good airline
4b) oh, and just as an aside, the negotiations aren't going as well as they could be.
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  #9458  
Old 04.08.2017, 16:48
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Airlines cannot fly aircraft to and from any point they wish, they need assigned routes, schedules, aircraft locations etc and all of this is done at a European level and the decision for 2019 will happen in October 2018. As it stands, without any agreement, the U.K. will be excluded.
THIS ! And we don't like to fly anyhow - we travel all over the UK and take stuff back and forth all the time- so paying for airport parking, getting there early, renting a decent car, and return, etc- just not worth it.

As for the Dover-Calais or Dover-Folkestone routes- I wonder when you last travelled by car on a peak holiday/Bank holiday week-end BM? And when French customs decide to go on a go slow - never mind the geographical impossibility of accommodating UK border checks moving back to UK side - and with the M2 and M20 backed up to almost London- A bit of a hold indeed- days you mean. We avoid peak times like the plague as we are retired- but our kids and grandkids always travel to us for Christmas, halt-term February (peak ski time) and end July/August. It is a nightmare NOW - so gawd knows what it will be like then. The combination of the physical restrictions in Kent, and more stringent checks in France or other EU ports - doesn't bear thinking about. For freight in particular of course ... Stuck for many hours, days even - without access to food, water or toilets.

Have you seen the DN headlines last week-end - over dramatic indeed.

This is what happened last time the French decided to make things a tad difficult:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...nnel-port.html (deliberately chose an article from the DM so not to be accused of left-wing bias )

Last edited by Odile; 04.08.2017 at 17:04.
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  #9459  
Old 04.08.2017, 16:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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No, I believe the EU hold all the cards here, so Britain will "pay" through the nose to avoid political embarassment. Mrs May has already shown she'll do that with the DUP, so I'm sure flights will continue as normal.
But money will not be enough... if you google these agreements you'll see that most of the external agreements are with the EU not the states and once the U.K. exits it is no longer party to those agreements and not surprisingly the European ones are subject to the ECJ.....

So perhaps TM will have to become a fan of the ECJ after all, as an alternative to handing out ferry timetables.
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  #9460  
Old 04.08.2017, 17:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Michael O'Leary is a wind-up artist. When he talks about things such as standing places on planes he knows full well he's just winding people up. But he does it to make a broader point.

In this case the broader point he is trying to make is

1) Michael O'Leary is smart
2) Michael O'Leary is cool
3) Michael O'Leary
4) Ryanair is a good airline
4b) oh, and just as an aside, the negotiations aren't going as well as they could be.
But none of this takes away from the fact that it is heading in that direction and without the U.K. sorting it out it will happen. Even EasyJet are starting to look at their corporate structure as unlike Ryan Air they can't simply move aircraft to a EU location because of the ownership requirements.
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