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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #9821  
Old 27.09.2017, 15:30
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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This has zero to do with Brexit and is purely a political struggle between the US and Canada.
It doesn't have something to do directly with Brexit, but it does have so much to say about Brexit and the bright future after Brexit...
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This tariff has been imposed basically at the request of Boeing in order to stifle competition.
And Boeing won't ever, ever, think to force the imposition of similar tarrifs on aviation parts produced in the UK, would it... they're just a bunch of nice guys

At the moment the US does import Airbuses, with parts produced in the UK without Boeing raising similar issues (don't think they haven't tried)

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Bombardier is a Canadian company.
The UK is still in the EU.
Neither the UK nor the EU has a trade deal with the United States.

HTH.
But Canada and US have a trade deal (NAFTA), yet they still imposed extra tarifs

The reason for this was/is that
- Bombardier benefited from state subsidies
- They didn't cooperate with the investigation
- Boeing was up to get their a..

In EU state subsidies to industries are highly regulated, what do you think the situation in the UK regarding state subsidies will be post Brexit? Just read previous posts...

The likelihood that the same thing will happen to the UK post Brexit is so much higher.... There is overproduction everywhere, who will be stupid enough to open a trade deal just to get hold of UK products that can be found in abundance everywhere else on the globe?
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  #9822  
Old 27.09.2017, 15:47
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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And Boeing won't ever, ever, think to force the imposition of similar tarrifs on aviation parts produced in the UK, would it... they're just a bunch of nice guys

At the moment the US does import Airbuses, with parts produced in the UK without Boeing raising similar issues (don't think they haven't tried)
Boeing would never ask the US to impose tariffs on aviation parts that may end up affecting their supply chain. Also, the UK doesn't export airliners.

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But Canada and US have a trade deal (NAFTA), yet they still imposed extra tarifs

The reason for this was/is that
- Bombardier benefited from state subsidies
- They didn't cooperate with the investigation
- Boeing was up to get their a..

In EU state subsidies to industries are highly regulated, what do you think the situation in the UK regarding state subsidies will be post Brexit? Just read previous posts...
Boeing also receive state subsidies, just not so discretely and through that big black hole known as "defence".

The bottom line is that this is protectionist bullshit. The very same type that the EU is also guilty of. It's also only one example.
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  #9823  
Old 28.09.2017, 09:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The bottom line is that this is protectionist bullshit. The very same type that the EU is also guilty of. It's also only one example.
So, would being part of a big union be a good thing or a bad thing then? If the US becomes ever more protectionist and the EU become (or are, according to you) protectionist, what will become of a country outwith both protectionist groups?

My hunch is we won't be able to sell to either without heavy tariffs. Brexiteers think we'll be able to sell to both freely, because Britain.
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  #9824  
Old 28.09.2017, 13:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So, would being part of a big union be a good thing or a bad thing then? If the US becomes ever more protectionist and the EU become (or are, according to you) protectionist, what will become of a country outwith both protectionist groups?

My hunch is we won't be able to sell to either without heavy tariffs. Brexiteers think we'll be able to sell to both freely, because Britain.
I'm against protectionism full stop. However I'm also not naive enough to believe that once the UK leaves the EU that protectionism will end. And I'd have been able to stomach remaining a member of the EU if they hadn't started up with all this fiscal, political, federalist bullshit. Protectionism isn't going away which is why there will be a need for trade deals to be struck. And despite what you can read in the Guardian, the UK is still the worlds fifth largest economy, and there will be a lot of countries that want to do trade with the UK for this reason, including the EU and the US.
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  #9825  
Old 28.09.2017, 14:03
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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...the UK is still the worlds fifth largest economy, and there will be a lot of countries that want to do trade with the UK for this reason, including the EU and the US.
No doubt, but the only relevant question is....are there enough to put us in a better financial position than we had whilst in the EU? If not, you've been sold a kipper.
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  #9826  
Old 28.09.2017, 14:10
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm against protectionism full stop. However I'm also not naive enough to believe that once the UK leaves the EU that protectionism will end. And I'd have been able to stomach remaining a member of the EU if they hadn't started up with all this fiscal, political, federalist bullshit. Protectionism isn't going away which is why there will be a need for trade deals to be struck. And despite what you can read in the Guardian, the UK is still the worlds fifth largest economy, and there will be a lot of countries that want to do trade with the UK for this reason, including the EU and the US.
"the UK is still the worlds fifth largest economy" Sounds good but the UK with only 3.85% of the worlds economy is not such a compelling reason as it sounds

Source
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  #9827  
Old 28.09.2017, 15:21
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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No doubt, but the only relevant question is....are there enough to put us in a better financial position than we had whilst in the EU? If not, you've been sold a kipper.
I've no idea, it may be, it may not be. But then again I don't support Brexit for economical reasons. This graph makes me think that the future is brighter then many would have you believe.

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  #9828  
Old 28.09.2017, 16:12
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I doubt that is EU specific, but a nice anti-EU graphic, no doubt.

I think if you separate the traditional powerhouses out there, you'd find a similar trend to the EU, with the new boys on the block, China, India, etc massively outperforming the rest for the past 40 years.

The graph is a bit rubbish too, just give us the 1980 figures and the 2017 ones and we can more accurately assess the %age change. In the graph in 1970 it appears to be EU: Non EU about 2:18, and then in 2017 2:15 (~20k:150k), and that would actually indicate the EU has a larger world share!
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  #9829  
Old 28.09.2017, 16:30
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Pretty much...

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“As an outside observer who has followed this closely this is what it looks like right now.

“You enter a basement dungeon of your own accord (referendum), slam the self locking door shut (leave vote), drop your trousers bend over and strap yourself into the conveniently placed restraints (trigger Article 50), throw some choice insults at the ominous hooded figure in the corner (Lancaster House speech) and now you expect that the next scene will involve a muscle relaxing massage that leaves you refreshed and energised.”
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  #9830  
Old 28.09.2017, 16:46
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I doubt that is EU specific, but a nice anti-EU graphic, no doubt.

I think if you separate the traditional powerhouses out there, you'd find a similar trend to the EU, with the new boys on the block, China, India, etc massively outperforming the rest for the past 40 years.
Why is that an anti-EU graphic really?

First of all, the graphic is misleading as it tricks you into seeing the green bit bigger in comparison to the blue bit. If you look carefully you will see that the RATIO between world output and EU output does not really change that much. Yes, the world (a.k.a 7 billion) is producing more than EU (500million), but the EU is still producing more per capita than the ROW.

And even if ROW output per capita is growing faster than EU, as a producer, that would only tell me that the ROW is heading towards overproduction and price dumping, which would discourage me to go to ROW rather than EU.

Someone mentioned before, half or more of that green bar is China. Good luck selling anything into China (or elsewhere) at prices you could sell into EU, when China is stacked to the roof with whatever you may ever think to produce, and when they'll steal in a minute whatever you may come up with, and make it three times faster and three times cheaper than the UK will ever be able to...
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  #9831  
Old 28.09.2017, 17:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm against protectionism full stop.
Currently the UK is part of a barrier-free 500mln-people market, it doesn't get any better than that.
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I've no idea, it may be, it may not be. But then again I don't support Brexit for economical reasons. This graph makes me think that the future is brighter then many would have you believe.
Now show the same chart for the UK alone.

Besides, the fact alone that the y-axis uses a linear scale rather than a logarithmic shows it's intended to deceive.

ETA:
Here's the chart showing the UK's PPP-based share of worldwide GDP as per IMF data, the same Loz's chart above is based on. The chart is a screenie from this page.



This is the EU's PPP-based share:

Oh and here's Loz's chart but on absolute GDP numbers with a log scale (EU is green, UK is blue):


Last edited by Urs Max; 28.09.2017 at 18:18.
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  #9832  
Old 28.09.2017, 18:24
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I think we're on the same page, dear boy.

It isn't an Anti-EU graphic, but Loz has portrayed it as so, without using his fingers and toes to count on.

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Why is that an anti-EU graphic really?

First of all, the graphic is misleading as it tricks you into seeing the green bit bigger in comparison to the blue bit. If you look carefully you will see that the RATIO between world output and EU output does not really change that much. Yes, the world (a.k.a 7 billion) is producing more than EU (500million), but the EU is still producing more per capita than the ROW.

And even if ROW output per capita is growing faster than EU, as a producer, that would only tell me that the ROW is heading towards overproduction and price dumping, which would discourage me to go to ROW rather than EU.

Someone mentioned before, half or more of that green bar is China. Good luck selling anything into China (or elsewhere) at prices you could sell into EU, when China is stacked to the roof with whatever you may ever think to produce, and when they'll steal in a minute whatever you may come up with, and make it three times faster and three times cheaper than the UK will ever be able to...
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  #9833  
Old 28.09.2017, 18:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I think we're on the same page, dear boy.
Absolutely, I was ranting about the original graphic, wasn't a direct personal reply. I get allergic reactions to pretty graphs, more of an occupational hazard by now...
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  #9834  
Old 28.09.2017, 21:21
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I've no idea, it may be, it may not be. But then again I don't support Brexit for economical reasons. This graph makes me think that the future is brighter then many would have you believe.

Eurozone economy grows twice as fast as UK's, figures published in August show.
Eurozone steals a march on Britain after Brexit vote, with faster GDP growth and falling unemployment rates

Source

The future for the EU is certainly brighter!
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  #9835  
Old 28.09.2017, 21:30
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I've no idea, it may be, it may not be. But then again I don't support Brexit for economical reasons. This graph makes me think that the future is brighter then many would have you believe.

That graph was from the IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2016).
If you look at a more recent report like last July then you will find;
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Growth projections for 2017 have been revised up for many euro area countries, including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, where growth for the first quarter of 2017 was generally above expectations.
This, together with positive growth revisions for the last quarter of 2016 and high-frequency indicators for the second quarter of 2017, indicate stronger momentum than previously anticipated.
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  #9836  
Old 29.09.2017, 11:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Apparently Farage is coming to Liechtenstein in a couple of months. https://wirtschaftswunder.li/

Anyone got any eggs going spare?
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  #9837  
Old 29.09.2017, 11:43
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Apparently Farage is coming to Liechtenstein in a couple of months. https://wirtschaftswunder.li/

Anyone got any eggs going spare?
I think the best impact would be simply not showing up. I don't think I could stand the cringe-fest of him making a spectacle of himself.


ETA - CHF 155 a ticket! Hahahaha!

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  #9838  
Old 03.10.2017, 12:03
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Shit house Tory politicians doing their best to Barrymore Brexit. A pox on the lot of them. May is the lamest of lame ducks and needs getting rid of. Same goes for her useless chancellor. And anyone who thinks Boris is the answer needs to be put out to pasture too. Him and his backstabbing buddy Gove have too much ambition for themselves to be trusted. Just imagine that infighting, ambition and pettiness within one party could screw this up. David Davis is the only one that consistently comes across well.
David Davis plans to retire in 2019 and leave Boris Johnson to steer the UK through the transitional period, The Telegraph can reveal.

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Interesting rumour
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  #9839  
Old 05.10.2017, 14:28
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

So much for UK/US special relationship and Brexit hopes!

Trump opposes EU-UK WTO deal in blow to Brexit plans!!
This was the idea for the UK to "piggy back" on the EU WTO deal instead of UK spending years negotiating a new UK WTO deal!!

Wonder how Loz will find a silver lining to this cloud

UKIP lost access to their biggest source of European campaign funding following a series of scandals over alleged misuse and misappropriation of funds.

After becoming insolvent in April, the Ukip-dominated pan-European Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe (ADDE) has now missed a deadline to register for EU funding, losing access to as much as €1.5m in 2018 alone, according to officials involved in the process.

Both items from the Financial Times if you have access!
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  #9840  
Old 05.10.2017, 18:28
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So much for UK/US special relationship and Brexit hopes!

Trump opposes EU-UK WTO deal in blow to Brexit plans!!
This was the idea for the UK to "piggy back" on the EU WTO deal instead of UK spending years negotiating a new UK WTO deal!!
Well at the rate they are going, Trump need not concern himself with it. Without an agreement with the EU, they are not going to even get past the little problem of full membership.
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