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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #10561  
Old 08.12.2017, 18:26
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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True, but if a foreign national from outside of the E.U or Schengen arrives at a domestic port, what have they had to do previously to gain access? All non E.U./Schengen nationalities are granted different Visas even for different countries within the E.U. I am just asking if it will be that different for non E.U. Passport holders to enter the U.K. even if the soft borders remain?
So far nothing changes for non E.U. Passport holders to enter the U.K. because the external UK and Irish borders are controlled. You only see the soft borders after you have entered the controlled areas, just like in the EU - once you have passed the external controlled EU border then many internal borders are soft Schengen borders.
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  #10562  
Old 08.12.2017, 21:00
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That's utter crap, no holiday pay, no sick pay,
Zero hour contracts allow for both holiday and sickness entitlements.
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Old 08.12.2017, 22:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

The “deal” is a minor triumph considering what a shower if shit there is for a government at the moment. The UK has made no firm guarantees on the contentious issues, and all are contingent on a final deal. If you look closer though it seems that nothing of significance has been agreed and the cans just been kicked further down the road, especially concerning Ireland. Main thing is the U.K. is still leaving.
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  #10564  
Old 09.12.2017, 00:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The “deal” is a minor triumph considering what a shower if shit there is for a government at the moment. The UK has made no firm guarantees on the contentious issues, and all are contingent on a final deal. If you look closer though it seems that nothing of significance has been agreed and the cans just been kicked further down the road, especially concerning Ireland. Main thing is the U.K. is still leaving.
Nothimg is contingent on a final deal, do you have a source for your fantasy. ??
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  #10565  
Old 09.12.2017, 02:01
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

"Ok, I see the broken eggs, but where‘s this omelette of yours?"
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  #10566  
Old 09.12.2017, 08:49
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Nothimg is contingent on a final deal, do you have a source for your fantasy. ??
Fantasy. Perhaps on Planet Graun, where you seem to reside these days.

https://t.co/AHESQos1VM

Quote:
A minor triumph for Mrs May
On December 8th UK and EU negotiators reached an agreement in principle across the three areas under discussion in the first phase of the Brexit talks.
The joint agreement allows the European Commission to say that "sufficient progress" has been made—a condition for the talks to move on to the transition arrangements and trade.
The Commission has recommended that, at the EU summit on December 14th‑15th, the European Council allow negotiations to proceed to the second phase.
Although there is still ambiguity on several of the first-stage issues, the deal is an important accomplishment for the prime minister, Theresa May, and her government.
Securing a deal has also guaranteed Mrs May's political survival in the short term.
Coming as a relief for businesses across Europe, talks on transition and trade will get under way in 2018.
The agreement came at the end of a week in which the risk of a breakdown in talks had increased substantially. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up the UK government, had objected to draft wording that appeared to allow for the possibility of regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The government's failure to secure the assent of the DUP for its Irish border formulation in the first place—thus avoiding the panic of recent days—was a huge blunder. However, the crisis seemed to concentrate minds, and the agreement between the UK and the EU is a small triumph for Mrs May, whose position would otherwise probably have become untenable. Mrs May appears to have traded on her domestic political weakness—and the fears of various parties to the negotiations that her government could collapse, leading to a breakdown of the negotiations—to secure a breakthrough to the all-important second round of talks.

In the final report agreed between the two sides, the UK has committed to finding a solution that avoids the creation of a hard border within the island of Ireland as a result of its planned withdrawal from the customs union. Paragraph 49 of the document says that it is the UK's intention to achieve such an outcome as part of the final deal on the UK-EU relationship. If this is not possible, the UK will propose specific solutions to address the "unique circumstances" of the island of Ireland. In the event that neither of these options proves possible, the UK has said that it will maintain "full alignment" with "those rules of the internal market and the customs union" that "support North-South co-operation, the all-island economy and the 1998 Agreement".

The UK has made no cast-iron concessions

The inherent ambiguity in this phrasing has raised concerns among those who are committed to the UK leaving the single market and the customs union, who fear that this will open the way for a so-called soft Brexit in which the UK retains membership of both. Some also see the clause as undermining the UK's negotiating position, in that it may encourage the EU, and those who would like to see a soft Brexit, to block a future Brexit deal. However, the formulation is so open-ended as to be almost meaningless. It does not commit the UK to anything concrete. Pressure may have been brought to bear on both the Irish government and the DUP to accept the phrasing; ultimately, neither had an interest in being the cause of a breakdown in the process.

The role of the ECJ and citizens' rights

Another sticking point in the talks that broke down on December 5th was the UK's proposal of a five-year time limit on the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on the question of citizens' rights. In the final report, both sides have accepted that an independent UK authority will oversee the implementation of citizens' rights, which will be able, on a voluntary basis, to refer cases to the ECJ for up to eight years. Some Brexiteers may baulk at the extended period during which the ECJ will have some oversight of the UK in this area (during the two-year transition period and for six years afterwards). However, the UK government has released a statement emphasising the voluntary character of the referral process, suggesting that it anticipates referring only a handful of cases each year.

A smaller divorce bill

Finally, the two sides have agreed on a formula for estimating the financial settlement, which according to reports from various sources adds up to an estimated net payment of £35bn‑39bn (US$45bn-50bn). The UK has also agreed to contribute to the final two years of the current EU budget period, in 2019‑20, and to pay its share of outstanding liabilities incurred before the end of 2020. Even this sum, which is substantially smaller than many earlier estimates coming from the EU, is too much for many Brexiteers. However, it will be divided into small annual payments spread over decades and will thus be substantially smaller than the annual net payments currently being made by the UK. If the quid pro quo for this hefty "divorce bill" is a reasonably open trade deal that allows the UK freely to negotiate new trade agreements with others, many will accept that it is a price worth paying.

Significantly, none of these apparent concessions from either side is iron cast. All are ultimately contingent on the final agreement on the future relationship between the UK and the EU. The joint report from the EU and UK negotiators carries on the front page the caveat that "nothing is agreed, until everything is agreed", meaning that further changes can be made with reference to the transition arrangements and the future trade relationship.

This means that none of these issues is truly settled. This brings into question what was the purpose of the EU insisting on this strict two-stage sequencing of the negotiations. If nothing can really be agreed until everything is agreed—a point that the UK government has repeated ad nauseum in relation to the Irish border and the divorce bill—it is unclear to what purpose trade and transition talks have been delayed. Many will draw the conclusion that the main purpose was to extract as many concessions as possible from the UK at an early stage. However, it seems clear that the UK has not conceded anything of substance in the joint document, and in this sense it is a surprising, small triumph for the beleaguered Mrs May. This may also help to explain why the main Brexiteers in the cabinet have been supportive of the deal. They have judged the apparent concessions to be acceptable and also know that the UK can row back on these at a later stage if the final deal is not satisfactory.

The European Council president, Donald Tusk, did not seem overly happy at the early morning press conference announcing the deal. However, based on the Commission's recommendations, it is more or less certain that at the EU summit on December 14th‑15th the European Council will assent to the negotiations moving on to the next phase. We assume that talks on the transition period will begin soon, and we maintain our view that trade talks will get under way in 2018, but that these will come with their own set of challenges. The most difficult negotiations are still to come and the potential pitfalls for both sides are manifold.
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  #10567  
Old 09.12.2017, 10:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Fantasy. Perhaps on Planet Graun, where you seem to reside these days.

https://t.co/AHESQos1VM
"Brexiteers know the UK can row back on these [concessions] at a later stage if the final deal is not satisfactory."

LOL, is that the best you can come up with? Where is the reference to a clause in the agreement that "it is contingent on a final deal".

The best that Michael Gove can come up with is "If the British people don't like the deal, they will now have the power to change the terms at the next election"!
How is that going to work in practice?

Edit; the full text of the agreement is here, please name the paragraph in the agreement that "it is contingent on a final deal".
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  #10568  
Old 09.12.2017, 11:01
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The “deal” is a minor triumph considering what a shower if shit there is for a government at the moment. The UK has made no firm guarantees on the contentious issues, and all are contingent on a final deal. If you look closer though it seems that nothing of significance has been agreed and the cans just been kicked further down the road, especially concerning Ireland. Main thing is the U.K. is still leaving.
So they've only agreed on high level principles, but not specifics. Than these are just opening gambits, theatrics and not binding agreements. Phew!

The EU is merely keen to demonstrate that leaving its cult is a painful and disadvantageous process, to dissuade others who are considering it. The UK is merely playing along for now to get to the details.

At the end of it, the UK really needs to dictate its own terms as it deems acceptable for itself, or no deal at all. No payments, no commitment, no nothing.

The UK really needs to get out of this with full on self-respect. Think Gloria Gaynor's "I will survive", or Aretha Franklin's "R-E-S-P-E-C-T". It will feel much better about itself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYkACVDFmeg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FOUqQt3Kg0
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Last edited by Phos; 09.12.2017 at 11:53.
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  #10569  
Old 09.12.2017, 11:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So they've only agreed on high level principles, but not specifics. Than these are just opening gambits, theatrics and not real negotiations. Phew!

The EU is merely keen to demonstrate that leaving its cult is a painful and disadvantageous process, to dissuade others who are considering it. The UK is merely playing along for now to get to the details.

At the end of it, the UK really needs to dictate its own terms as it deems acceptable for itself, or no deal at all. No payments, no commitment, no nothing.

The UK really needs to get out of this with full on self-respect. Think Gloria Gaynor's "I will survive", or Aretha Franklin's "R-E-S-P-E-C-T". It will feel much better about itself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYkACVDFmeg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FOUqQt3Kg0
You did not look at my link did you?
The agreement here has 16 pages and 96 paragraphs; hardly just high level principles
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  #10570  
Old 09.12.2017, 11:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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"Brexiteers know the UK can row back on these [concessions] at a later stage if the final deal is not satisfactory."

LOL, is that the best you can come up with? Where is the reference to a clause in the agreement that "it is contingent on a final deal".

The best that Michael Gove can come up with is "If the British people don't like the deal, they will now have the power to change the terms at the next election"!
How is that going to work in practice?

Edit; the full text of the agreement is here, please name the paragraph in the agreement that "it is contingent on a final deal".
Jesus H Christ.

Quote:
Significantly, none of these apparent concessions from either side is iron cast. All are ultimately contingent on the final agreement on the future relationship between the UK and the EU. The joint report from the EU and UK negotiators carries on the front page the caveat that "nothing is agreed, until everything is agreed", meaning that further changes can be made with reference to the transition arrangements and the future trade relationship.
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  #10571  
Old 09.12.2017, 11:23
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Jesus H Christ.
So you agree there is no paragraph in the agreement that states "it is contingent on a final deal".
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  #10572  
Old 09.12.2017, 11:32
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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You did not look at my link did you?
The agreement here has 16 pages and 96 paragraphs; hardly just high level principles
That is a report of conversations. No signature and no ratification.
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  #10573  
Old 09.12.2017, 11:58
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Fantasy. Perhaps on Planet Graun, where you seem to reside these days.
Ha ha, I‘m neck beard deep in muesli and sandals. Thanks for the greenies!
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  #10574  
Old 09.12.2017, 12:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So you agree there is no paragraph in the agreement that states "it is contingent on a final deal".
There is a good reason for this!

The EU and UK cannot sign a trade deal before UK leaves the EU.

So the time line is
sign divorce agreement
leave EU
sign trade deal

So the divorce agreement will be finalised before the trade deal is finalised.
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  #10575  
Old 09.12.2017, 12:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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There is a good reason for this!

The EU and UK cannot sign a trade deal before UK leaves the EU.

So the time line is
sign divorce agreement
leave EU
sign trade deal

So the divorce agreement will be finalised before the trade deal is finalised.

This waterfall approach has less than 20% chance of succeeding.
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  #10576  
Old 09.12.2017, 12:47
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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This waterfall approach has less than 20% chance of succeeding.
What is your definition of success?
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  #10577  
Old 09.12.2017, 17:58
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Trade talks will not start until February at earliest, EU tells UK

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The EU has told Theresa May it will not start discussing the terms of a trade relationship with the UK until February at the earliest, and only then if the British prime minister has taken a grip of her divided cabinet and come up with an agreed vision of the future.
At the rate this is going, we should not be surprised if talks don't start until well into the third quarter...
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Old 10.12.2017, 13:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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What is your definition of success?
One mans' success is usually anothers' failure!
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  #10579  
Old 12.12.2017, 23:13
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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You can "notice" what you like. Fortunately for everyone else though these things are measured though and like FMF says, inflation is currently at 2.9%.
Now 3.1%, the highest in nearly six years.

Source

Figures from market researcher Kantar Worldpanel released on Tuesday indicated that food inflation hit 3.6% in the three months to 3 December, the highest rate since 2013.
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Old 12.12.2017, 23:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Now 3.1%, the highest in nearly six years.

Source

Figures from market researcher Kantar Worldpanel released on Tuesday indicated that food inflation hit 3.6% in the three months to 3 December, the highest rate since 2013.
Now interest rates can go up ideally to 5%, then the £ will recover.
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