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lewton 05.02.2016 09:16

The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH
 
We have discussed this in various different threads, but I expect the interest (and press coverage) to pick up as the referendum approaches so let's have one thread to rule them all instead of a new thread for every piece of news.

Brexit closer?
Pressure on Cameron as poll suggests voters edging towards Brexit


And looks like many conservatives are not happy with the way Cameron is trying to present the current proposals as good for Eurosceptics.
David Cameron's Brexit comments infuriate Tory activists who now threaten to abandon support for candidates

Richdog 05.02.2016 09:24

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
I am really in two minds about this. On one hand, I really dislike the way that EU policy, which is often irrational and detrimental, dictates to some extent how we live our lives and our policies onimmigration etc. I also strongly dislike the fact that we end up propping up faltering economies run by inept governments who got themselves into a mess and now expect the richest in the EU to get them out of it.

On the other hand, being part of the EU does give us a lot of cool things in the way we travel and conduct business, even though it opened up the flodgates for benefit tourism. I also strongly believe that the EU as a superstate is the future of Europe and will be the only way we can combat a growingly ambitious Russia and China, and to some extent the US, in terms of economic and military might.

However until it is run sensibly, taking into account the needs, strengths and weaknesses of the individual countries that comprise it, I don't see it as a viable option in the current political climate. Cameron is certainly near-impotent in negotiating deals of the scale of what he wants, and is instead holding a bar of lead, trying to sell it as gold, and hoping no-one will notice.

Would the UK be harmed by an exit? In some ways yes I think it will, but the UK has such a strong economy and is such a financial and cultural center and is such a big part of the security of Europe that I don't think we would be alienated. I just think they would do everything they can to get us back in the fold in the next few years as new governments come into play.

Loz1983 05.02.2016 09:32

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
I'm pro-Europe but totally against the EU in its current form. It's the most antidemocratic organisation I can think off, making crap decisions that affect all its citizens. I'll definitely be voting out.

Island Monkey 05.02.2016 09:33

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
I don't know how I will vote.

I'd like to keep freedom of movement and trade, but get rid of the other crap. I'd quite like it if we could be in the same position as Norway, but then Norway get no say on what happens, so maybe not.

lewton 05.02.2016 09:35

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
For me, having no personal link with the UK (and thus not really caring about the consequences for the UK, sorry if this sounds too cynical) I would like to see a Brexit as a shakeup call for the establishment in Brussels who are living in their perfect bubble while the whole thing is going down.

And yes, I see the EU as a great idea and I think it worked acceptably until Barrozo, Merkel, Sarkozy and the such.

Phil_MCR 05.02.2016 09:38

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Richdog (Post 2532192)
On the other hand, being part of the EU does give us a lot of cool things in the way we travel and conduct business, even though it opened up the flodgates for benefit tourism.

Maybe the answer is to simply have a European free trade zone, together with free movement of people, in general, with the ability for individual countries to make quota limits as they see fit.

forget the eurozone, let countries have their own currencies and they can let currency depreciation bail them out when they fail to manage their budgets.

lewton 05.02.2016 09:39

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Poll added.
I hope the options are good enough for everybody to find something that is close to their personal opinion.

Loz1983 05.02.2016 09:42

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lewton (Post 2532206)
Poll added.
I hope the options are good enough for everybody to find something that is close to their personal opinion.

Why not a simple In/Out as will be on the voting paper? We can discuss what we really would like to see here.

Richdog 05.02.2016 09:52

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Phil_MCR (Post 2532205)
Maybe the answer is to simply have a European free trade zone, together with free movement of people, in general, with the ability for individual countries to make quota limits as they see fit.

forget the eurozone, let countries have their own currencies and they can let currency depreciation bail them out when they fail to manage their budgets.

Spot on, I think allowing countries to set their own tolerance limits would go a LONG way to reducing dissatisfaction. Some of the cultures are very different (Hungary etc), and you cannot expect them to take in migrants willy-nilly if it something they truly do not want. If a country feels forced to do anything against it's will, thus downsizing its sovereign penis, it will bite back.

Regarding the currency I do like the idea of a single currency in principle, but as you say it's not always suitable for the poorer economies... but then I'm no financial guru!

Sbrinz 05.02.2016 09:58

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Phil_MCR (Post 2532205)
Maybe the answer is to simply have a European free trade zone, together with free movement of people, in general, with the ability for individual countries to make quota limits as they see fit.

Forget the Eurozone, let countries have their own currencies and they can let currency depreciation bail them out when they fail to manage their budgets.

I agree.

Before the EU we had the EFTA, (Yes it still exists) and there were subsidies, but only paid out to those that actually sold the stuff. So if there was an abundance of apples the consumer benefited with a lower price, and after a subsidy the farmer received a fair price, but anything not sold on the market was destroyed and a loss was made. And so the subsidy did not distort the market.

Before monetary union experts wrote in the papers that you cannot have a financial union without a political union. This has been born out with Greece and the rest, not conforming to the regulations set out in Brussels.

My main gripe is that the EU leaders are not elected, but are appointed by the EU governments. This often results in a poor choice. The UK sent the communist ex coal mining union leader, Kinnock, to Brussels to become the EU transport minister. For the UK he was out of harm's way, but was this the best choice?

The EU needs reforming from top to bottom, and we need some professional people to make a good job. We don't want the UK losing it's fishing industry, while Spain fishes everywhere it likes and seems to have no quotas imposed on it's fleet at all.

You all hated Thatcher, but she could sort out that lot in Brussels, inside a week!
.

lewton 05.02.2016 10:04

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Richdog (Post 2532217)
Regarding the currency I do like the idea of a single currency in principle, but as you say it's not always suitable for the poorer economies... but then I'm no financial guru!

Which is why Greece is in such deep s..t. You don't need a Nobel in Economics to see that.
On the other hand, I think that the euro would have worked for the UK, and Britain with the euro would be an even more important financial hub (while now Frankfurt has got some (no idea how much) business that's there only because it had to be in the Eurozone).

Loz1983 05.02.2016 10:21

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Reasons to stay:
  • Trade
  • Erasmus Programme
  • Easy to go on holiday
  • Peace in Europe

Reasons to leave:
  • Most UK trade is not with EU (USA and Austrlia)
  • Likely accession of Turkey
  • Cost of membership
  • Cheap eastern European labour eroding UK wages
  • Strain on Services from EU migration
  • Not having to listen to unelected arseholes like Tusk and Junker telling everyone what they're doing wrong
  • Europe wide migration disaster
  • EU economic time bomb

Don Molina 05.02.2016 10:24

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Richdog (Post 2532192)
I also strongly dislike the fact that we end up propping up faltering economies run by inept governments who got themselves into a mess and now expect the richest in the EU to get them out of it.

They're not getting propped up for free. The richest in the EU get paid good money to prop up these faltering economies. So when the richest are profiting I don't really see the argument here. Is it too much work?


Quote:

Originally Posted by Richdog (Post 2532192)
On the other hand, being part of the EU does give us a lot of cool things in the way we travel and conduct business, even though it opened up the flodgates for benefit tourism.

Would the UK be harmed by an exit? In some ways yes I think it will, but the UK has such a strong economy and is such a financial and cultural center and is such a big part of the security of Europe that I don't think we would be alienated. I just think they would do everything they can to get us back in the fold in the next few years as new governments come into play.



On the other other hand, how much benefit tourism really exists? What is the actual cost to the economy? And how much wealth is being produced and generated in the UK because of EU workers that could easily go there? Are there numbers that go with these arguments, or is it just bias in the sense that if I make 10 and lose 1, I hate losing that 1 much more than I love making the 10?

Also to consider how much of the strong economy of the UK is owed to the fact that it has easily accessible partners in the EU? Partners to sell to, to buy from, and to hire from. Of course no EU would make all these things possible, but also harder and more expensive, so whatever positive effect (if any) would be somewhat diminished.



Of course there is logic behind the arguments stated, but if they remain qualitative and not quantified, how can they be weighed against each other to see what comes up on top? Sentiment is good for picking girlfriends, not for making this scale and type of decisions.



Edit: The above are honest questions, I really don't know and I would be very interested to find out.

Richdog 05.02.2016 10:44

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Don Molina (Post 2532240)
They're not getting propped up for free. The richest in the EU get paid good money to prop up these faltering economies. So when the richest are profiting I don't really see the argument here. Is it too much work?

Hmm, but with the billions the EU has put into Greece, will the countries that contributed the billions ultimately see every penny back plus more?

Quote:

On the other other hand, how much benefit tourism really exists? What is the actual cost to the economy? And how much wealth is being produced and generated in the UK because of EU workers that could easily go there? Are there numbers that go with these arguments, or is it just bias in the sense that if I make 10 and lose 1, I hate losing that 1 much more than I love making the 10?

Also to consider how much of the strong economy of the UK is owed to the fact that it has easily accessible partners in the EU? Partners to sell to, to buy from, and to hire from. Of course no EU would make all these things possible, but also harder and more expensive, so whatever positive effect (if any) would be somewhat diminished.

Of course there is logic behind the arguments stated, but if they remain qualitative and not quantified, how can they be weighed against each other to see what comes up on top? Sentiment is good for picking girlfriends, not for making this scale and type of decisions.

Edit: The above are honest questions, I really don't know and I would be very interested to find out.
All reasonable questions, and I haven't seen the specific stats of late either. I agree that some of my arguments may be qualitative and based to some extent on prinniple, and when I get time I will see if I can dig something up. :)

fatmanfilms 05.02.2016 10:49

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Richdog (Post 2532266)
Hmm, but with the billions the EU has put into Greece, will the countries that contributed the billions ultimately see every penny back plus more?



All reasonable questions, and I haven't seen the specific stats of late either. I agree that some of my arguments may be qualitative and based to some extent on prinniple, and when I get time I will see if I can dig something up. :)

Of course they won't get anything back, like with Taxation the better off subsidise the poor.

Richdog 05.02.2016 10:51

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by fatmanfilms (Post 2532274)
Of course they won't get anything back, like with Taxation the better off subsidise the poor.

So what would you say was the benefit for the UK with the money it put in to the bail-out?

fatmanfilms 05.02.2016 10:53

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Richdog (Post 2532276)
So what would you say was the benefit for the UK with the money it put in to the bail-out?

Nothing whatsoever, Greece is effectively bankrupt, the sooner it declares bankruptcy & defaults the better.

lewton 05.02.2016 11:01

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Loz1983 (Post 2532235)

Reasons to leave:
  • ...
  • Cheap eastern European labour eroding UK wages

Is cheap Eastern European labour a bad thing for the UK (not the British people)?
Let's ask a banker. :D

amogles 05.02.2016 11:01

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Richdog (Post 2532276)
So what would you say was the benefit for the UK with the money it put in to the bail-out?

I don't think there needs to be any benefit or kickback. Sometimes you help people because they're in deep sh#t and its the right thing to do.

However, the question is, is the bailout really helping Greece long term? I think not.

Phil_MCR 05.02.2016 11:26

Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Loz1983 (Post 2532235)
Reasons to stay:
  • Trade
  • Erasmus Programme
  • Easy to go on holiday
  • Peace in Europe

None of the above require the EU so, there are really no reasons to stay.


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