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Old 14.09.2017, 08:18
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CHF/EUR exchange rate

I suppose I am not the only one in this forum who mentally calculates his savings in euros rather than in francs. Is anyone else in the forum upset/stressed about the weakening of the franc against the euro?
Any ideas of what to do? is it worth changing chf to eur now or waiting for it to go up again?
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Old 14.09.2017, 08:20
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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I suppose I am not the only one in this forum who mentally calculates his savings in euros rather than in francs. Is anyone else in the forum upset/stressed about the weakening of the franc against the euro?
Any ideas of what to do? is it worth changing chf to eur now or waiting for it to go up again?
No one knows what is going to happen on the FX markets. If we did, then we'd all be very rich.

My advice is to start saving in Swiss Francs. You're here after all and that way will cut out all your worries and stress.
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Old 14.09.2017, 08:59
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

Or if you know you're going to need your savings in EUR, invest in stuff that is denominated in Euros, then you don't need to worry.

Whether now is a good time to do that, or whether CHF may strengthen a bit - who knows. Unless there's a really obvious peak/trough, market timing seldom gives anything but stress.
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Old 14.09.2017, 09:06
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

I guess you have not been here very long because the current FX is still very good for us, Auslanders "calculating" our savings in Euro.


I am personally glad to see that happening because it means more jobs and more opportunities...short term, yes, I can buy less beers during my holidays, but that's a marginal impact in my opinion.


I would advice you to split your savings in Euro / CHF, so you can ignore the FX changes.
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Old 14.09.2017, 09:13
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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I would advice you to split your savings in Euro / CHF, so you can ignore the FX changes.
How does that work? You will always have a currency risk if you earn in CHF and have costs in EUR. You could mitigate that with swaps
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Old 14.09.2017, 09:16
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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I suppose I am not the only one in this forum who mentally calculates his savings in euros rather than in francs. Is anyone else in the forum upset/stressed about the weakening of the franc against the euro?
Any ideas of what to do? is it worth changing chf to eur now or waiting for it to go up again?
Realistically it should be between 1.40 -1.60, it will get to those rates at some point, probably within the next 10 years. If you don't believe me look at the rates since the euro became a currency less than 20 years agp.
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Old 14.09.2017, 09:33
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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How does that work? You will always have a currency risk if you earn in CHF and have costs in EUR. You could mitigate that with swaps

He is talking about his savings, not about his earnings, so not sure you need to do much more than having your exposure diversified among both currencies.
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Old 14.09.2017, 09:41
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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I suppose I am not the only one in this forum who mentally calculates his savings in euros rather than in francs. Is anyone else in the forum upset/stressed about the weakening of the franc against the euro?
Any ideas of what to do? is it worth changing chf to eur now or waiting for it to go up again?
Simple: don't keep cash.

Cash is for pocket money, not for savings.
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Old 14.09.2017, 09:48
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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He is talking about his savings, not about his earnings, so not sure you need to do much more than having your exposure diversified among both currencies.

Which still leads to FX fluctuations
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Old 14.09.2017, 09:52
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

This is a question you will always have as long as you keep your savings in currencies and not money.

what is the difference?

https://thewealthbusiness.com/what-i...ncy-and-money/
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Old 14.09.2017, 09:59
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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I suppose I am not the only one in this forum who mentally calculates his savings in euros rather than in francs. Is anyone else in the forum upset/stressed about the weakening of the franc against the euro?
Any ideas of what to do? is it worth changing chf to eur now or waiting for it to go up again?
CHF is very much overvalued vs the EUR. Normal rate should be 1.5.
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Old 14.09.2017, 10:17
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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Or if you know you're going to need your savings in EUR, invest in stuff that is denominated in Euros, then you don't need to worry.

Whether now is a good time to do that, or whether CHF may strengthen a bit - who knows. Unless there's a really obvious peak/trough, market timing seldom gives anything but stress.
denomination of your investment holdings is fully irrlevant. to use fmf's example: Nestle is denominated in CHF, yet the indian rupee has more influence on Nestle than CHF.
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Old 14.09.2017, 10:19
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

Realistic rate is around 1.2 to 1.25 at the moment

Anyone who believes in 1.5 being realistic doesnt understand the differences between CH and Eurozone economics and what has caused this for the realistic exchange rate Over the last 10 years. I can explain more if you want..
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Old 14.09.2017, 11:33
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

No, I'm not worried, but then I'm not someone who saves in Euros.

10 year hi-lo rates:
low €0.60/CHF
high €1.02/CHF
current: €0.87/CHF

General trend - strengthening of CHF.

Since the peak in early 2015 post eur-chf pegging removal, generally strengthening of Euro, but still well below the 10 year high of the Euro at 0.6/CHF.

What weakening are you talking about?

Source - averages from xe.com app
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Old 14.09.2017, 11:57
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

Ive been watching the GBP CHF rate. And soken to UBS about it. Basically global instability increases the strength of the Franc. Now all the elections are over, Brexit is plodding on, the EU seems relatively stable. The Franc is weakening / other currencies are strengthening. This is the house forecast I am told.

Now that said. I suspect a US strike in N.Korea would be a game changer, gold and CHF should increase in value...I very much doubt Yen would in this senario which is also usually a safe haven currency
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Old 14.09.2017, 12:04
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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Realistic rate is around 1.2 to 1.25 at the moment

Anyone who believes in 1.5 being realistic doesnt understand the differences between CH and Eurozone economics and what has caused this for the realistic exchange rate Over the last 10 years. I can explain more if you want..
So do...
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Old 14.09.2017, 12:11
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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Realistic rate is around 1.2 to 1.25 at the moment

Anyone who believes in 1.5 being realistic doesnt understand the differences between CH and Eurozone economics and what has caused this for the realistic exchange rate Over the last 10 years. I can explain more if you want..
This is a pointless statement - in a totally liquid market like major currency FX, there is no "realistic rate", there is only a rate.

"Realistic rate" implies there is some ambiguity or negotiation or ability to adjust thate rate to something else - which unless you're the SNB or ECB, there isn't.
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Old 14.09.2017, 12:44
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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I suppose I am not the only one in this forum who mentally calculates his savings in euros rather than in francs. Is anyone else in the forum upset/stressed about the weakening of the franc against the euro?
Any ideas of what to do? is it worth changing chf to eur now or waiting for it to go up again?
It's almost impossible to predict where it will head next.

10 Years ago 1 EUR = 1.65 CHF, so the CHF today is 30% higher. The CHF is overvalued, no doubt, but what will encourage people to sell CHF for EUR?

Although it's strengthening due to a weak economic recovery, I for myself do not trust the Euro. The Euro itself and the EU are way too much messed up to bet on their future.

The Dollar has been the currency of the world for decades. The USA has its problems but it's way more stable than the EU. If I was worried about the loss of value of the Swiss Franc, I would buy some Dollars instead of Euros.
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Old 14.09.2017, 19:20
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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Ive been watching the GBP CHF rate. And soken to UBS about it. Basically global instability increases the strength of the Franc. Now all the elections are over, Brexit is plodding on, the EU seems relatively stable. The Franc is weakening / other currencies are strengthening. This is the house forecast I am told.

Now that said. I suspect a US strike in N.Korea would be a game changer, gold and CHF should increase in value...I very much doubt Yen would in this senario which is also usually a safe haven currency

I agree about all your points. An escalating N. Korea crisis would surely affect the markets (and I really hope for the sake of human lives that this will not happen). But even in that case I feel that gold will rise rather than chf. There is no particular reason for the chf/eur ratio to increase due to N. Korea.
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Old 14.09.2017, 19:26
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Re: CHF/EUR exchange rate

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It's almost impossible to predict where it will head next.

10 Years ago 1 EUR = 1.65 CHF, so the CHF today is 30% higher. The CHF is overvalued, no doubt, but what will encourage people to sell CHF for EUR?

Although it's strengthening due to a weak economic recovery, I for myself do not trust the Euro. The Euro itself and the EU are way too much messed up to bet on their future.

The Dollar has been the currency of the world for decades. The USA has its problems but it's way more stable than the EU. If I was worried about the loss of value of the Swiss Franc, I would buy some Dollars instead of Euros.

That is a very good point. I have thought about the USD myself. But, even though it seems that the exchange rate of usd/chf is favorable now to change some chf to usd.... if you compare it with 2014, then this is not the case. It is true that the usd is the international currency but in the long run who knows
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