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  #19981  
Old 25.01.2021, 13:47
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Re: Coronavirus

Sadly not as good as I hoped ... how are people still spreading the virus? Within family gatherings? At schools?

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Today’s numbers

4320 new cases
129 hospitalisations
85 deaths
55071 tests
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  #19982  
Old 25.01.2021, 13:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sadly not as good as I hoped ... how are people still spreading the virus? Within family gatherings? At schools?
With 48k tests for the previous weekend, and 55k for this weekend, the drop is somewhat better than it looks.
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  #19983  
Old 25.01.2021, 14:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sadly not as good as I hoped ... how are people still spreading the virus? Within family gatherings? At schools?
My eldest daughter in the UK was in tears on the phone last night. Because so many neighbours don't follow the rules, have had huge repeated parties and visitors to stay over Christmas (many from abroad who did not isolate)- and this keeps going on. The local park is full of teenagers going wild, drinking, snogging and more- and the police break them up and they return. Grandchildren have missed so much school, home learning again since Christmas, no sport, no friends, no family, and no grandparents (us here and others in NI)- and they know their friends and families are not following the rules.
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  #19984  
Old 25.01.2021, 14:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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My eldest daughter in the UK was in tears on the phone last night. Because so many neighbours don't follow the rules, have had huge repeated parties and visitors to stay over Christmas (many from abroad who did not isolate)- and this keeps going on. The local park is full of teenagers going wild, drinking, snogging and more- and the police break them up and they return. Grandchildren have missed so much school, home learning again since Christmas, no sport, no friends, no family, and no grandparents (us here and others in NI)- and they know their friends and families are not following the rules.
Don't police issue fines to these people?
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  #19985  
Old 25.01.2021, 14:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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My eldest daughter in the UK was in tears on the phone last night. Because so many neighbours don't follow the rules, have had huge repeated parties and visitors to stay over Christmas (many from abroad who did not isolate)- and this keeps going on. The local park is full of teenagers going wild, drinking, snogging and more- and the police break them up and they return. Grandchildren have missed so much school, home learning again since Christmas, no sport, no friends, no family, and no grandparents (us here and others in NI)- and they know their friends and families are not following the rules.
Yesterday was a beautiful day here in Bern ... I treated myself to a walk and so many people were out and about doing the same. Groups of teens hanging out in the parks drinking beers, families meeting with their children all playing together, I just shook my head in bewilderment. One of the local parks even had outdoor bars set up where people could grab drinks to drink in the park. I was so surprised at how full the city was despite everything to do being closed.

I understand your daughter's pain, I hope it gets better soon. Take care
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  #19986  
Old 25.01.2021, 15:03
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Re: Coronavirus

I had my yearly mammogram in Bern this morning. I always see the radiologist afterward to look at the image and find out if there are changes, etc. My images were unremarkable, so good news.

But, the radiologist was telling me that heís biopsied so many tumors this year that were much larger than they should have been and presented as more serious disease simply because people waited. I donít know if people waited because they were afraid, or because they couldnít get into see their own doctors, but it has been detrimental to health. I think the radiologist sees breast patients.
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  #19987  
Old 25.01.2021, 15:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sadly not as good as I hoped ... how are people still spreading the virus? Within family gatherings? At schools?
Our son's primary school teacher is in quarantine right now after receiving a notification via her contact tracing app.

Today, I received an invitation via SMS to come to a neighbor's house for coffee on Thursday. I don't really know her, but we've spoken a few times while passing each other in the 'hood.' She has three kids (two are teenagers). I hope she doesn't think I'm rude if I decline because of the virus. I was actually a bit surprised by the invite, to be honest.
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  #19988  
Old 25.01.2021, 15:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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With 48k tests for the previous weekend, and 55k for this weekend, the drop is somewhat better than it looks.
I am not sure how to interpret these numbers. The tests are not 100% accurate, so the more Covid prevalence drops, the more we will see a lot of false positive results from 55'000 tests. For example, if the test is 95% accurate (sensitive), and the disease prevalence is only 1%, then testing 55k people will give us over 3000 positives, and around 85% of these positives will be false.
We don't know exactly how accurate the tests are, but we might never get to small number of cases simply because we are testing a lot of people.
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  #19989  
Old 25.01.2021, 15:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sadly not as good as I hoped ... how are people still spreading the virus? Within family gatherings? At schools?
I'm sure the latter is one strong vector. Three kids in my daughter's class (of 20) have/have had close relatives (with whom they live) who have tested positive for COVID-19. They were all quarantined, but who knows how long after their relatives had contracted the coronavirus?
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  #19990  
Old 25.01.2021, 15:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Today, I received an invitation via SMS to come to a neighbor's house for coffee on Thursday. I don't really know her, but we've spoken a few times while passing each other in the 'hood.' She has three kids (two are teenagers). I hope she doesn't think I'm rude if I decline because of the virus. I was actually a bit surprised by the invite, to be honest.
Ugh, don't worry if she thinks it is rude or not - in my opinion, it is rude of her to ask. We should be keeping all social interactions to a minimum. I am quite social and in the past year, I've had only 4 social engagements in total. 2 of those were tested prior to visiting ... seeing friends I can understand is important, but why see people you don't know? I chat with my neighbors, no need to invite them in to consume goods and have close contact. Sorry for the rant...
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  #19991  
Old 25.01.2021, 16:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ugh, don't worry if she thinks it is rude or not - in my opinion, it is rude of her to ask. We should be keeping all social interactions to a minimum. I am quite social and in the past year, I've had only 4 social engagements in total. 2 of those were tested prior to visiting ... seeing friends I can understand is important, but why see people you don't know? I chat with my neighbors, no need to invite them in to consume goods and have close contact. Sorry for the rant...
You're not ranting at all. Thank you... I really appreciate your opinion on that.
I guess it just goes to show that some people are more careful (or more careless) than others. Some people seem to be having a really difficult time adjusting their patterns, I guess -- or in some cases, just forgetting to adjust them. We socialized a bit last summer with a few close friends, when the #'s were so low, but we haven't done any of that at all since last August or so. I guess we're fortunate that at least we're living in the age of the internet and skype, etc. Of course, it's not quite the same but at least it can help with feeling less isolated. Stay safe.
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  #19992  
Old 25.01.2021, 17:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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Today, I received an invitation via SMS to come to a neighbor's house for coffee on Thursday. I don't really know her, but we've spoken a few times while passing each other in the 'hood.' She has three kids (two are teenagers). I hope she doesn't think I'm rude if I decline because of the virus. I was actually a bit surprised by the invite, to be honest.
Tell her that you want to avoid being fined as the family with 3 kids is not allowed to invite anyone these days.

The rule that a family with one kid can invite a pair of friends and a family with 3 kids can invite noone is so stupid. IMHO, the more complicated they make the rules the less people follow them. I wish the authorities do not make fools of themselves and leave 2 households rule in place. This is very simply to follow and families do not feel themselves discriminated because of the number of kids.
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  #19993  
Old 25.01.2021, 18:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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Tell her that you want to avoid being fined as the family with 3 kids is not allowed to invite anyone these days.

The rule that a family with one kid can invite a pair of friends and a family with 3 kids can invite noone is so stupid. IMHO, the more complicated they make the rules the less people follow them. I wish the authorities do not make fools of themselves and leave 2 households rule in place. This is very simply to follow and families do not feel themselves discriminated because of the number of kids.
I wish the authorities do not make fools of themselves and remove the rule. People need to stop meeting. Stay in your bubbles, people.
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  #19994  
Old 25.01.2021, 18:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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I had my yearly mammogram in Bern this morning. I always see the radiologist afterward to look at the image and find out if there are changes, etc. My images were unremarkable, so good news.

But, the radiologist was telling me that heís biopsied so many tumors this year that were much larger than they should have been and presented as more serious disease simply because people waited. I donít know if people waited because they were afraid, or because they couldnít get into see their own doctors, but it has been detrimental to health. I think the radiologist sees breast patients.
This issue is preoccupying a fair few folk here in the embarrassingly ivory twin towers in Basel. Weíve seen demand for testing for a lot of potentially life threatening illnesses and diseases slump while the COVID testing has obviously sky rocketed.

Itís extremely challenging in the current climate to highlight this to health authorities and government departments when everyone is so focused on the coronavirus. Not helped by the relative strength of our oncology portfolio as it comes across as self serving rather than the warning and very real concern that it is.
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  #19995  
Old 25.01.2021, 18:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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I am not sure how to interpret these numbers. The tests are not 100% accurate, so the more Covid prevalence drops, the more we will see a lot of false positive results from 55'000 tests. For example, if the test is 95% accurate (sensitive), and the disease prevalence is only 1%, then testing 55k people will give us over 3000 positives, and around 85% of these positives will be false.
We don't know exactly how accurate the tests are, but we might never get to small number of cases simply because we are testing a lot of people.
There is random community testing and there is targeted testing of individuals that have symptoms. It seems logical that those who have symptoms are more likely to return a true positive, and not a false positive result.

Here's a BBC article from October that gets into it a bit more
https://www.bbc.com/news/54270373

One paragraph of note, emphasis mine:
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Figures for late September from Public Health England show that 7% of community tests were positive. That means of every 1,000 people tested, 70 were positive. Even with a false positive rate of 0.8%, seven of those would be false positives, but 63 would be true positives - the vast majority.

So the daily case count is not being skewed significantly by false positives. There will also be some false negatives, meaning that some people who actually have Covid are not being counted.
It's not clear from the data I've seen how many of the tests in Switzerland are community tests as opposed to tests of people who have symptoms. That would be interesting to know.
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Old 25.01.2021, 19:04
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Re: Coronavirus

SBB up to their old tricks ... trains still crowded despite home office mandate:

https://www.20min.ch/story/darum-ist...g-482143864616
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Old 25.01.2021, 19:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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This issue is preoccupying a fair few folk here in the embarrassingly ivory twin towers in Basel. Weíve seen demand for testing for a lot of potentially life threatening illnesses and diseases slump while the COVID testing has obviously sky rocketed.

Itís extremely challenging in the current climate to highlight this to health authorities and government departments when everyone is so focused on the coronavirus. Not helped by the relative strength of our oncology portfolio as it comes across as self serving rather than the warning and very real concern that it is.
Do you think itís patients themselves driving this....staying out of the hospital, or referring physicians, or something else?
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  #19998  
Old 25.01.2021, 19:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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SBB up to their old tricks ... trains still crowded despite home office mandate:

https://www.20min.ch/story/darum-ist...g-482143864616
No easy way to switch to a french page, at least I couldnít see it. Any chance of a brief summary.
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  #19999  
Old 25.01.2021, 19:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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No easy way to switch to a french page, at least I couldnít see it. Any chance of a brief summary.

Despite the home office recommendation: the trains are well occupied during rush hour.

That annoys some commuters.

They think that the railway operators should create enough space so that distance can be maintained.

SBB says it has only canceled additional wagons on selected routes. Wagons were missing mainly because of the heavy snowfall in mid-January.
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Old 25.01.2021, 19:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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There is random community testing and there is targeted testing of individuals that have symptoms. It seems logical that those who have symptoms are more likely to return a true positive, and not a false positive result.

Here's a BBC article from October that gets into it a bit more
https://www.bbc.com/news/54270373

One paragraph of note, emphasis mine:


It's not clear from the data I've seen how many of the tests in Switzerland are community tests as opposed to tests of people who have symptoms. That would be interesting to know.
Exactly, the very important number is the prevalence of Covid in the tested group. If people with symptoms are tested, then the prevalence would be higher than in case of testing any person randomly.

I don't think the tests in Switzerland are conducted only on people with symptoms though. To name just a few groups which are routinely tested without symptoms -- doctors, nurses, old age home workers, travelers, family members of positive cases, contacts of positive cases. There are a lot of people without symptoms being tested. The Covid prevalence in these groups is very low. We might have a big number of false positives!

And if we imagine for a moment that all Covid is gone from Switzerland. In this case we still will have thousands of positive tests if we keep testing at the same rate. Suppose that the test sensitivity at 95%. This means that for 50K of tests we will get around 5% (2500 cases) positives, all of them false. The point is -- we will never go to zero cases by applying the current testing.

P.S. How nice this page is number 1'000, the post is number 20'000, and the thread is one year old!

Last edited by leonie; 25.01.2021 at 20:15.
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