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Old 02.02.2021, 09:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've wondered about that, too. Every so often I dip into this thread, to glean new facts (since some users seem to try to summarise those, and that's useful), and see the same people trying, mostly in vain, to persuade each other of the same things, over and over. Certainly, some of you have a staying power that I don't. @Pancakes, don't let it get you down. There's always Real Life out there.
Yeah, this place is just a vortex that sucks people's time and energy, for the most part.

Last edited by Pancakes; 04.02.2021 at 09:44.
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  #20422  
Old 02.02.2021, 09:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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I’ve seen reports that herd immunity is at least65%. For measles it’s over 90%
60% to 80%, with the new varients being more towards the upper end of that range.

Measles is extremely infectious - the natural R number is something like 18, way above any Covid varient.
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  #20423  
Old 02.02.2021, 09:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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60% to 80%, with the new varients being more towards the upper end of that range.
So if only 16% of the whole Swiss population has had Covid then we still have a long way to go. Vaccine will speed it up drastically though.
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  #20424  
Old 02.02.2021, 09:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Tony, I think you're missing the point. It's clear that the implementation of new restrictions is what is responsible for the recent decline in Sweden's #'s, as the decline occurred just after the new rules / "Pandemic Law" were put in place.

So if I understand you correctly, the premise of your argument is that "Well, Sweden's numbers finally began to decline even though they never went into lockdown or made masks mandatory" but you're completely failing to acknowledge the fact that the restrictions they did put in place are what have proven to have a very beneficial effect on the number of new cases and deaths. And there is simply no way of knowing what kind of further impact mandatory masks or a lockdown would have had in Sweden, as there is no way of comparing, but being that it has been made quite clear that restrictions do bring the #'s down, I think it's a logical hypothesis or conclusion that a lockdown or mandatory masks would have an even greater impact.

There have been plenty of studies comparing the # of new cases in areas that had no mandatory mask policies with areas that did require masks, and they have found that masks have significantly reduced the spread of the virus in areas where masks were mandatory compared to where they were not. e.g.

This study, from Canada:
https://voxeu.org/article/face-mask-...ovid-19-canada

And this one from Germany:

Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/51/32293
-----

I honestly don't know why I even bother. I feel like I'm having déjà vu of déjà vu right now; and up until this point, I didn't know that was possible.
You say that implemented measures were responsible for the decline of the virus but then you've posted a picture of a graph showing cases in Sweden beginning to decline before the measures were implemented.

If you put more European countries on the a graph you'll see cases declining at roughly the same time everywhere regardless of intervention method used.



The same goes for States in the US.



Look at this article in the NY Times. It shows perfectly that restrictions have a limited impact. It shows the incidence curve for every state in the US and, in each case, it describes what restrictions have been put in place and for how long.

If you removed the information about the restrictions and just left the graphs, you would never be able to infer which state had which restriction, not even very roughly.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ronavirus.html

I've posted dozens of links to scientific papers showing that lockdowns are ineffective, masks don't work and that asymptomatic transmission is very rare. Even if you don't want to acknowledge them, we're far enough along the path to be able to see the real world impact these measures have had, and the answer is not much. Ultimately the only pattern we're seeing is that of a virus that is running its natural course.
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Old 02.02.2021, 09:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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If you put more European countries on the a graph you'll see cases declining at roughly the same time everywhere regardless of intervention method used.

Did you read your own post? Greece ~5, Denmark 20, Czechia and Portugal 50+ new cases per 100K people in the last month. The same?

I know the graph is badly made, but the vertical axis starts at zero. So, being close to the bottom matters even if the graph is a color blob.
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Old 02.02.2021, 09:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've posted dozens of links to scientific papers showing that lockdowns are ineffective, masks don't work and that asymptomatic transmission is very rare. Even if you don't want to acknowledge them, we're far enough along the path to be able to see the real world impact these measures have had, and the answer is not much. Ultimately the only pattern we're seeing is that of a virus that is running its natural course.
NO, you've posted links to either quack papers or frequently papers where you have wilfully misinterpreted the results.

Just one example, the Danish paper on face masks you trumpeted. Turned out all that paper said was that regular masks didn't materially protect the wearer - which everyone already knew and accepted. Masks protect others from the wearer, a completely different animal.

There was a very nice piece on SF news a couple of weeks back showing exactly why this is so on trains.
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Old 02.02.2021, 09:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did you read your own post? Greece ~5, Denmark 20, Czechia and Portugal 50+ new cases per 100K people in the last month. The same?

I know the graph is badly made, but the vertical axis starts at zero. So, being close to the bottom matters even if the graph is a color blob.
I do read my own posts, you should try doing the same. I said that cases declined everywhere at roughly the same time.
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  #20428  
Old 02.02.2021, 09:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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You say that implemented measures were responsible for the decline of the virus but then you've posted a picture of a graph showing cases in Sweden beginning to decline before the measures were implemented.

If you put more European countries on the a graph you'll see cases declining at roughly the same time everywhere regardless of intervention method used.
Your graph clearly shows the new case rate in Sweden is more than double the rate in the other Scandinavian countries, quod erat demonstrandum.
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  #20429  
Old 02.02.2021, 10:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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I do read my own posts, you should try doing the same. I said that cases declined everywhere at roughly the same time.
Which decline? Spain or Portugal?
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  #20430  
Old 02.02.2021, 10:59
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Re: Coronavirus

Interesting ... study from Geneva shows that children contract the virus just as much as adults:

https://www.20min.ch/story/kinder-st...e-883322665062
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Old 02.02.2021, 11:19
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Re: Coronavirus

On the school issue there is a lot of contradictory data, it seems. See below from CIDRAP which is not exactly in the skeptical cohort. Also noteworthy in my view that while in-school education can be made relatively safe with various measures, if anything it is likely out of school social behavior by kids that contribute to spread. So the question is really what does closing of schools bring.

Three studies highlight low COVID risk of in-person school

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...-person-school

Last edited by komsomolez; 02.02.2021 at 11:32.
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  #20432  
Old 02.02.2021, 11:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Interesting ... study from Geneva shows that children contract the virus just as much as adults:
The fact that the kids are infected at a similar rate as the adults is out of the question, more or less all studies show that they are. The controversial is if they spread the virus as good as adults.

To me the fact that the Swiss schools became the center of the virus spreading only when a British mutation came into country (about 8 months after reestablishment of the classroom teaching after the lockdown) is an indication of the fact that at least previous mutations were not spread actively in kids population.
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Old 02.02.2021, 12:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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I understand your point. Listen to the school part of the podcast I posted. There seem to be indications that Covid does not spread in schools in the way the common cold and flu do.

A must-read is at www.prezi.com This vaccine/inoculation or better put
as an experimental gene therapy be seriously considered by the elders - as
it is not compulsory for them to take it in Switzerland. Doing some research
on side-effects, I at 86 yrs. would better keep away.
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  #20434  
Old 02.02.2021, 12:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thank you for sharing that!

A few weeks ago, I actually had a phone conversation with the guy who heads the "Corona Team" at my son's school and for our entire village. I spoke to him about the option of home-schooling my son, since I am high-risk, and he said it wasn't possible for me to do that and that all he could do was give my son two weeks off, if or when needed. I wonder if anything has changed since then. I think that at the beginning of the pandemic, parents were given the option of applying to home-school their kids, but then they reversed that decision last summer.
IMO, home-school for primary-school kids requires adult supervision at home. If the parents work, then this is almost impossible. My daughter (3KL) went home-school last spring, we were fine as my wife stays at home but even then it was not easy for my wife. We can't even imagine how it was for those with both parents working.

Now, you can have home-school as optional. The problem I see then is how will the teacher/school manage supporting different in-class and home-school at the same time? Do they have the budget/manpower to do this? Maybe private lessons will work as alternative, expensive yes but can be an option.
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Old 02.02.2021, 12:43
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Re: Coronavirus

Interesting graphs and data from Israel:



Note blue lines, of 60+ years old (first to vaccinate), in the past 2 weeks:

~35% drop in cases
~30% drop in hospitalizations
~20% drop in critically ill

Stronger than in younger people & not seen in previous lockdown

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/statu...5Es1_&ref_url=
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Old 02.02.2021, 12:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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IMO, home-school for primary-school kids requires adult supervision at home. If the parents work, then this is almost impossible. My daughter (3KL) went home-school last spring, we were fine as my wife stays at home but even then it was not easy for my wife. We can't even imagine how it was for those with both parents working.

Now, you can have home-school as optional. The problem I see then is how will the teacher/school manage supporting different in-class and home-school at the same time? Do they have the budget/manpower to do this?
No and those jobs are by definition different. The teachers hired for CDL (center for distance studies) are quite different than those who perform great live. It is a bit like the diference between sitting in a classroom, observing, listening and writing vs reading a manual and making the learning work. I know this is force majeure but there is a reason that some countries right now are knocking up teachers' salaries and boosting their hiring.

It is still really enjoyable and fun, esp. in virtual world, still. Huge fatigue, in every country kids act like they are big and don't worry, they do. It affects the learning. Same for grown ups.
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Old 02.02.2021, 13:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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The fact that the kids are infected at a similar rate as the adults is out of the question, more or less all studies show that they are. The controversial is if they spread the virus as good as adults.

To me the fact that the Swiss schools became the center of the virus spreading only when a British mutation came into country (about 8 months after reestablishment of the classroom teaching after the lockdown) is an indication of the fact that at least previous mutations were not spread actively in kids population.
There was a recent outbreak at a primary school in Volketswil, which is the town next to ours, where 9 out of 24 classes ended up going into quarantine. They did a "mass test" at the school, and the results showed that 7% of the kids who were tested at the primary school tested positive for the virus. So that's roughly 1 in 14 kids who tested positive (at the school), among the kids who were tested. I guess the testing wasn't mandatory, and some parents refused to allow their kids to be tested.

https://www.nzz.ch/zuerich/corona-in...5?reduced=true

https://www.blick.ch/schweiz/zuerich...d16314191.html
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Old 02.02.2021, 13:30
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Re: Coronavirus

Today’s numbers

1633. new cases
90. Hospitalisations
46 Deaths
25279 tests
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Old 02.02.2021, 13:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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There was a recent outbreak at a primary school in Volketswil, which is the town next to ours, where 9 out of 24 classes ended up going into quarantine. They did a "mass test" at the school, and the results showed that 7% of the kids who were tested at the primary school tested positive for the virus. So that's roughly 1 in 14 kids who tested positive (at the school), among the kids who were tested. I guess the testing wasn't mandatory, and some parents refused to allow their kids to be tested.

https://www.nzz.ch/zuerich/corona-in...5?reduced=true

https://www.blick.ch/schweiz/zuerich...d16314191.html
There is nothing in the article about the tests and the accuracy of the tests. If a group of people with zero Covid is tested, there will be a percentage of false positives by definition. Those kids who tested positive at school, have they been re-tested to confirm the results?
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Old 02.02.2021, 13:53
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Re: Coronavirus

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Now shows information on vaccination stats. (updated twice weekly)
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