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  #20761  
Old 08.02.2021, 09:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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And do the others?

(Its being reformulated to target the ZA and BA strains)
Yes but reduced for Modena and Pfizer it seems. Both are working on upgrades.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...covid-variants
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  #20762  
Old 08.02.2021, 09:21
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Re: Coronavirus

But how critical is it for Europe? Will the British mutation eventually replace all the other mutations?
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  #20763  
Old 08.02.2021, 09:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't recall ever hearing anyone say that masks stop the pandemic. They can, however, help prevent virus particles from spreading to others nearby.

It's not just about "random conclusions." It's about recognizing and analyzing emergent patterns, which is something you would learn about if you took a class in statistics or mathematical modelling.
Here we go again....I'm sorry we have to write things like this over and over again!

It is really annoying not only having to repeat oneself but also seeing there are constant attempts at strawman arguments. It's like some people are bored out of their minds and have nothing better to do with their time.

I love EF - you write one thing and the....uhem usual culprits will argue their versions of what you wrote.

@Vladest,

I think you'll have troubles finding even one tiny post here stating that the masks stop the pandemic.
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  #20764  
Old 08.02.2021, 09:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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But how critical is it for Europe? Will the British mutation eventually replace all the other mutations?
The British variant will become the dominant strain in the short term given it already has a pretty strong foothold. That's unavoidable. However if that varient does not overcome existing natural or vaccine immunities then any current or future variant that does will eventually replace it - by summer you could easily see the South African or Brazilian variants (or something else similar) become dominant.

Last edited by baboon; 08.02.2021 at 09:58.
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  #20765  
Old 08.02.2021, 10:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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The British variant will become the dominant strain in the short term given it already has a pretty strong foothold. That's unavoidable. However if that varient does not overcome existing natural or vaccine immunities then any current or future variant that does will eventually replace it - by summer you could easily see the South African or Brazilian variants (or something else similar) become dominant.
Well - provided that the existing vaccines prevent hospitalisation and deaths of the new variant (data tbc but promising I believe) then it may be possible to manage a much higher caseload than we are now - possibly with a herd immunity strategy if the death rate gets low enough - say under 0.1%.
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  #20766  
Old 08.02.2021, 10:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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- by summer you could easily see the South African or Brazilian variants (or something else similar) become dominant.
I hope that the inventors of the mRNA vaccines will update their vaccines before that happens.
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  #20767  
Old 08.02.2021, 10:55
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Re: Coronavirus

SVP putting pressure to lift the semi lockdown ASAP!
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  #20768  
Old 08.02.2021, 10:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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SVP putting pressure to lift the semi lockdown ASAP!
Excellent news!

Tom
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  #20769  
Old 08.02.2021, 11:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Excellent news!

Tom

Come on, two or more months of this light lockdown will do good, my sex toys online shops sales are taking off and I don't want this lockdown to ever end
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  #20770  
Old 08.02.2021, 11:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well - provided that the existing vaccines prevent hospitalisation and deaths of the new variant (data tbc but promising I believe) then it may be possible to manage a much higher caseload than we are now - possibly with a herd immunity strategy if the death rate gets low enough - say under 0.1%.
And hospitalization rates. So far we have seen a total hospitalization rate of 4.3% across all age groups. The rate for age below 70 is 2%.

Let us assume all above 70 would be vaccinated. If you then open up fast and/or see a big caseload because of mutations, hospitals will look very crap very fast. At 15000 cases per day, this is 300 hospitalizations per day with a 2% rate. Peak in hospitalizations so far was on 2nd Nov with 293, but the 7-day average was never higher than 225.

One person, one shot is what appears to be obvious, if indeed one shot efficacy is 80%ish.
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  #20771  
Old 08.02.2021, 11:12
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Re: Coronavirus

https://lockdown-stop.ch/

Tom
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  #20772  
Old 08.02.2021, 11:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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He played with people's lives by risking a move that had no scientific basis at the time and was unrecommended by the manufacturers. Even if it turns to be a good outcome, it was still an unacceptable move whose sole intent was to pump up figures to build up his popularity after the whole debacle of his government's terrible handling of the crisis that is still keeping Britons quarantined at home.
Far be it for me to defend Eton's best, but BoJo had no alternative to use the "speedboat" and vaccinate and try and enforce a strict lockdown.

Why?
The UK's holy cow, the National Health Service (NHS). It is bad enough without a pandemic. Now with these measures routine operations and treatments are stopped and delayed, but without early vaccine and lockdowns, there would be people dying in the streets, gasping for air, as hospitals would be totally overwhelmed...
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  #20773  
Old 08.02.2021, 11:19
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Re: Coronavirus

Only problem is the research was done in UK,FR, DE, Iran, IT, NL, ES, USA, South Korea, and Sweden and this is Switzerland To be honest, I don't follow the mental contortions of this kind of politicians of when CH is in Europe and when it is not.

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Die im angesehenen Wissenschaftsjournal „European Journal of Clinical Investigation“ publizierte Studie „Assessing Mandatory Stay‐at‐Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID‐19“ untersuchte die Effekte eines restriktiven Lockdowns in mehreren Europäischen Ländern. Es konnte kein signifikanter, positiver Effekt gefunden werden.
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  #20774  
Old 08.02.2021, 11:23
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Re: Coronavirus

Relieved we finally got appointment for H's vaccination at the end of the month- a couple of weeks before his 75th BD. Pheeew.
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  #20775  
Old 08.02.2021, 11:26
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Re: Coronavirus


They had 50k supporters, now almost 100k! Time to start an opposing website-

lockdown-dont-stop.ch
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lockdown-for-ever.ch
or
lockdown-dont-stop-believing.ch
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  #20776  
Old 08.02.2021, 11:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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And hospitalization rates. So far we have seen a total hospitalization rate of 4.3% across all age groups. The rate for age below 70 is 2%.

Let us assume all above 70 would be vaccinated. If you then open up fast and/or see a big caseload because of mutations, hospitals will look very crap very fast. At 15000 cases per day, this is 300 hospitalizations per day with a 2% rate. Peak in hospitalizations so far was on 2nd Nov with 293, but the 7-day average was never higher than 225.

One person, one shot is what appears to be obvious, if indeed one shot efficacy is 80%ish.
Oh agreed. We'd need at least the existing vaccine in at least the middle aged (say 50 plus) to even consider opening up - and that would rely on the existing vaccine being pretty good at preventing hospitalization and death of the new variant.

Realistically summer is the earliest possible.
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Old 08.02.2021, 12:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well - provided that the existing vaccines prevent hospitalisation and deaths of the new variant (data tbc but promising I believe) then it may be possible to manage a much higher caseload than we are now - possibly with a herd immunity strategy if the death rate gets low enough - say under 0.1%.
Today's Daily Telegraph (UK broadsheet) has the following:

"The suggestions remain strong that serious illness arising from the (South African) variant requiring hospitalisation or leading to death is still prevented (by the AstraZeneca vaccine)."
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Old 08.02.2021, 12:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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I feel we need to give up on the AZ vaccine and work on finding the ones that are the most effective.

South Africa Stops Use of AstraZeneca Vaccine

The vaccine, developed with Oxford, was found not to prevent the virus variant rampant in South Africa from causing mild or moderate disease.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02...19-coronavirus
I saw an American chiropractor who works in France on Saturday, she specifically only wants the AZ one as she believe it's more likely to prevent her spreading COVID to her patients, no idea if she has a point or not.
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Old 08.02.2021, 12:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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They had 50k supporters, now almost 100k! Time to start an opposing website-

lockdown-dont-stop.ch
or
lockdown-for-ever.ch
or
lockdown-dont-stop-believing.ch

Anti-lockdown are the loudest and populist parties and they try really hard to stand out but they are minority. I really wish that anti-lockdown crowd would launch the referendum on this matter because I already know of at least 5 people who will vote against lifting (including myself) and only one who will most likely vote for it.
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  #20780  
Old 08.02.2021, 12:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Anti-lockdown are the loudest and populist parties and they try really hard to stand out but they are minority. I really wish that anti-lockdown crowd would launch the referendum on this matter because I already know of at least 5 people who will vote against lifting (including myself) and only one who will most likely vote for it.
Doesn't your vote depend on the situation at the time of the vote? It's in summer right?

I think its hard to know what the right thing to do then this early.
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