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Old 20.04.2021, 16:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mock my ignorance , feel free, if you think weighing stacks of paper to estimate figures is valid then I am surprised.
Indeed, it is to be mocked.

It is extremely accurate, and how votes are normally counted.

Tom
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  #24442  
Old 20.04.2021, 16:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Why the number of free ICU are being such a big deal? I mean, in March 2020 the total number of ICU was increased to 1500 and decreased to about 1000 by summer 2020. Now this number is just below 1000.
If this number is so flexible, I wonder why it is watched so much — in case of high occupancy, new ICU could be created. And I was also very puzzled that the ICU was one of the task force’s conditions for relaxing the Covid measures— keeping the businesses closed because of ICU occupancy doesn’t make much sense to me, because ICU number could be increased.
You can't conjure up educated and experienced personnel like you can order additional equipment or repurpose ordinary hospital beds/roooms. The overtime from late last year needs to be holiday'ed off, people need to recuperate. They can't do that with the default 75% occupancy rate based on 1000 ICU beds because staff numbers have been calibrated to that.

Likewise less-specialised staff.

There's a reason why a wave of exhausted personnel is expected, and feared, to leave once this thing is mostly under control.
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Mock my ignorance , feel free, if you think weighing stacks of paper to estimate figures is valid then I am surprised.
One way ATMs tally the bills they still hold, as well as those they pay out, is by weighing them.
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  #24443  
Old 20.04.2021, 16:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Indeed, it is to be mocked.

It is extremely accurate, and how votes are normally counted.

Tom
Well mock away.. I hope weighing fax paper, normal A4 and emails gives a good difference each day.

Sure it maybe a mess and a big lag in the system but I am only going to post figures as validated by the scales.
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Old 20.04.2021, 16:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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One way ATMs tally the bills they still hold, as well as those they pay out, is by weighing them.
Ok. False. Even though i have worked on ATMs I would simply know this is incorrect.

I’m stunned ,but accept, that corona deaths are estimated by weighing paper and checking wikipedia.

Not sure why,when I posted figures, that dont match “difference to Previous Day” deaths, from same source, it is such an issue?
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  #24445  
Old 20.04.2021, 17:01
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Re: Coronavirus

Just watched some of today's press conference. Observations:
  • Absolute, not only relative increase of young patients in hospital and on ICU.
  • Ackermann shows that he doesn't support opening and shows charts with "scenarios" that all seem to culminate at around 10000 cases per day in May/June. But makes clear these are not "forecasts". Says the models have been calibrated (to reflect learning where they previously were wrong and too cautious) and are based on reasonable vaccination progress.
  • BAG lady confirms 200.000 doses Moderna will be missing in May and volumes are set per quarter (which sounds to me like Moderna could just deliver all on the last day of the quarter. Also she reacts quite defensive and annoyed when asked about situation in other countries.
  • Hauri, the ZG Kantonsarzt, seems to suggest that for the cantons the situation with vaccine supply is challenging as it screws up the planning.
  • And the SwissMedic guy only had to say that AZ had still not delivered the data they allegedly need to approve. They are "waiting".

Overall, this did not inspire me with too much confidence.
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Old 20.04.2021, 17:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well mock away.. I hope weighing fax paper, normal A4 and emails gives a good difference each day.

Sure it maybe a mess and a big lag in the system but I am only going to post figures as validated by the scales.
Weighing paper votes is quite common here, see this link.

The question is not "how accurate is vote counting by weighing" but "how accurate is it versus the other counting methods"

Hand counting of votes in postelection audit or recount procedures can result in error rates of up to two percent, according to a new study.

There are other vote counting methods, all with their benefits and problems.
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Old 20.04.2021, 18:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just watched some of today's press conference. Observations:

  • BAG lady confirms 200.000 doses Moderna will be missing in May and volumes are set per quarter (which sounds to me like Moderna could just deliver all on the last day of the quarter. Also she reacts quite defensive and annoyed when asked about situation in other countries.

Overall, this did not inspire me with too much confidence.
I keep thinking it is Friday.
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Old 20.04.2021, 18:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just watched some of today's press conference. Observations:
  • Absolute, not only relative increase of young patients in hospital and on ICU.
  • Ackermann shows that he doesn't support opening and shows charts with "scenarios" that all seem to culminate at around 10000 cases per day in May/June. But makes clear these are not "forecasts". Says the models have been calibrated (to reflect learning where they previously were wrong and too cautious) and are based on reasonable vaccination progress.
  • BAG lady confirms 200.000 doses Moderna will be missing in May and volumes are set per quarter (which sounds to me like Moderna could just deliver all on the last day of the quarter. Also she reacts quite defensive and annoyed when asked about situation in other countries.
  • Hauri, the ZG Kantonsarzt, seems to suggest that for the cantons the situation with vaccine supply is challenging as it screws up the planning.
  • And the SwissMedic guy only had to say that AZ had still not delivered the data they allegedly need to approve. They are "waiting".

Overall, this did not inspire me with too much confidence.
Ackermann's forecasts are extensions of the scenarios that the Swiss task force had presented back in February of the 20 000 cases a day that we'd be hitting at the end of April. I find those numbers hard to believe unless he expects literally everything to open up in a week or two.
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  #24449  
Old 20.04.2021, 20:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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Weighing paper votes is quite common here, see this link.

The question is not "how accurate is vote counting by weighing" but "how accurate is it versus the other counting methods"

Hand counting of votes in postelection audit or recount procedures can result in error rates of up to two percent, according to a new study.

There are other vote counting methods, all with their benefits and problems.
Please listen to yourself. For a start, your first link is to an advert for scales. The second is over 10 years old.

The last fatality count delta is 13 .

I am pretty sure you dont need scales to weigh 13 faxes or forms or whatever.


Why are you taking about voting count methods. Not relevent.
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  #24450  
Old 20.04.2021, 20:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Please listen to yourself. For a start, your first link is to an advert for scales. The second is over 10 years old.

The last fatality count delta is 13 .

I am pretty sure you dont need scales to weigh 13 faxes or forms or whatever.


Why are you taking about voting count methods. Not relevent.
What's your problem?
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  #24451  
Old 20.04.2021, 20:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Please listen to yourself. For a start, your first link is to an advert for scales. The second is over 10 years old.

The last fatality count delta is 13 .

I am pretty sure you dont need scales to weigh 13 faxes or forms or whatever.


Why are you taking about voting count methods. Not relevent.
Glad you agree that weighing is a good method since you could not marshall any counterarguments.
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  #24452  
Old 20.04.2021, 20:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm not trying to minimise the pressure that doctors are under, but quoting national occupancy rates is more relevant than that of one small hospital covering a low population which has probably been at overcapacity before COVID was ever around.
In fact, some cantons don't even have ICU's... covidapocalypse!
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  #24453  
Old 20.04.2021, 20:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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You can't conjure up educated and experienced personnel like you can order additional equipment or repurpose ordinary hospital beds/roooms. The overtime from late last year needs to be holiday'ed off, people need to recuperate. They can't do that with the default 75% occupancy rate based on 1000 ICU beds because staff numbers have been calibrated to that.

Likewise less-specialised staff.

There's a reason why a wave of exhausted personnel is expected, and feared, to leave once this thing is mostly under control.

One way ATMs tally the bills they still hold, as well as those they pay out, is by weighing them.
Maybe we simply should stop underfunding life-saving facilities and squeese out the last sweat from nurses and physicians. And this concerns not only Switzerland.

In the end, permanently doubling healthcare costs will anyway be cheaper than lockdowns.

I honestly don't even understand why are we in this situation... last spring we were in a completely unknown territory, little was known about covid, effective therapies we not developed (i.e. ICU death rate was 70%+, now it is around 30%). It has been a year now and it was clear that there is no easy way out early on. Yet, the only country I know that has permanently and drastically adjusted its hospital capacity and personnel is... Russia. Everyone else is hiding the purse and waiting for a miracle I guess?

P.s. Moscow is fully open, vaccine available to anyone willing and no one is concerned about overwhelmed hospitals, coz there is a ton of beds and nurses now...

Last edited by LifeStrain; 20.04.2021 at 20:49.
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  #24454  
Old 20.04.2021, 20:49
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Re: Coronavirus

C’mon, China built new 600 bed hospitals in less than a week.

Last edited by bowlie; 20.04.2021 at 21:03. Reason: typo
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Old 20.04.2021, 20:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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C’mon, China build new 600 bed hospitals in less than a week.
Yep, something nobody in rich Europe is not even considering despite obvious benefits...
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Old 20.04.2021, 21:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yep, something nobody in rich Europe is not even considering despite obvious benefits...
UK built several Nightingale hospitals, I think they have all been dismantled & hardly any beds were ever used.
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Old 20.04.2021, 21:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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UK built several Nightingale hospitals, I think they have all been dismantled & hardly any beds were ever used.
It was the same with a giant army field hospital in Prague. At the end of the day and the worst peak being cca 9000 hospitalized Covid cases in covidariums and 'réanimation', patients still need particular care and not just beds.

The staffing was/is the most important. The unies worked with hospitals and soc departments, shifting hundreds of meds students and nurses around, rotations and unskilled but retrained hands from restos, bars and airports. Thousands of volunteers track and trace.

CZ still have a really high death rate. I think it is the fact that we have high percentage of elderly in the population (not many kids) and because through the 2nd wave we got hit with the more infectious UK and SA strains. It peaked within a couple of weeks, only, and massively. 16000 cases per day. My MD cousin vaxed with Pfizer still had a nasty case of SA Covid case. Long.

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Old 20.04.2021, 21:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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UK built several Nightingale hospitals, I think they have all been dismantled & hardly any beds were ever used.
The Swiss army could build temporary hospitals, in the beginning of the pandemic the army representative was sitting at those task force briefings and informing on how they could help.
Qualified medical personnel is a limited resource and cannot be increased quickly, but in my opinion the number of free ICU beds shouldn’t have been the milestone for relaxing the restrictions.
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Old 20.04.2021, 21:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yet, the only country I know that has permanently and drastically adjusted its hospital capacity and personnel is... Russia. Everyone else is hiding the purse and waiting for a miracle I guess?
Not everything that shown on Russia's TV is true. At the time when they showed shiny new beds in the excibition center in Moscow there were completely different videos coming from the poor local hospitals around the country. There was also a heart breaking story about the 3 yo girl (in Moscow, if I'm not mistaken), who died from PIMS and whose mother was desperately trying to convince doctors that that is PIMS and not the other illness they were suspecting until it was late.

All countries with more or less civilised healthcare system including Switzerland increased the numbers of available ICU beds and trained some medical stuff to work with Covid ICU patients in 2020.

I wonder how Russia did "drastically" adjust the personnel? Just curious.

Last edited by TinyK; 20.04.2021 at 22:33.
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Old 20.04.2021, 22:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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The Swiss army could build temporary hospitals, in the beginning of the pandemic the army representative was sitting at those task force briefings and informing on how they could help.
Qualified medical personnel is a limited resource and cannot be increased quickly, but in my opinion the number of free ICU beds shouldn’t have been the milestone for relaxing the restrictions.
The Swiss army provided up to 6,000 people and they set up emergency hospitals, consultation centres and telephone hotlines for the population, and provided transportation for people and equipment.
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