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Old 29.06.2021, 16:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Au contraire, reproductive number looking good.
Or to be safe TC, just keep your mask on
Attachment 142138
The numbers were pretty much halving week on week a fortnight ago. Now its stable. In a week it'll be up. The start of the last wave is here. At least we got it low - that's bought us time.
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  #26762  
Old 29.06.2021, 16:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Full population. ZH, GE, BS in the low/mid 50%. Lots of the rural cantons in low/mid 40%.

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/epid...?geoView=table
Pretty poor really. They need to make clear that with Delta, the UK has shown that it will circulate until a very high % is fully vaxxed, and that if the rollout doesn't improve and you aren't vaxxed, your chances of getting it (before herd immunity is reached) are probably >50%. We aren't even close yet.

UK / CH % total population fully vaxxed: 48.9% / 34.3%
UK / CH % total population 1 dose: 66.7% / 50.4%

When delta hits us, hopefully that'll get some waverers through the door. I think the number of hardcore antivaxxers is quite high however. Frankly, who cares if they get it.
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Old 29.06.2021, 16:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Pretty poor really. They need to make clear that with Delta, the UK has shown that it will circulate until a very high % is fully vaxxed, and that if the rollout doesn't improve and you aren't vaxxed, your chances of getting it (before herd immunity is reached) are probably >50%. We aren't even close yet.
You think more than half of the unnvaccinated will get it? That sounds crazy high.
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Old 29.06.2021, 16:19
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You think more than half of the unnvaccinated will get it? That sounds crazy high.
Well estimates for R for delta are around 6-7.

That means herd immunity is around 85%. If we are only getting 70% adults through the door and need to get to 85% then 1/2 of the 30% will have to be infected (either previously or in the future) to get to herd immunity.

Obviously the maths are handwaving, but you get the point. We aren't close to delta herd immunity.
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  #26765  
Old 29.06.2021, 16:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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If I remember well, the R number is a rear view mirror. During the decrease from the 2nd wave, R number was above 1 while cases kept decreasing. There should be something in how the number is calculated that there's a 2 week delay.
But positivity is also a lagging indicator linked to the incubation period?

I was comparing positivity with reproduction numbers which are both lagging indicators and anyway should be linked, not diverging.
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Old 29.06.2021, 17:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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But positivity is also a lagging indicator linked to the incubation period?

I was comparing positivity with reproduction numbers which are both lagging indicators and anyway should be linked, not diverging.
Indeed, with half the population with at least 1 dose, 35% fully vaccinated, and the people that already got it, the virus cannot spread as fast as before.
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  #26767  
Old 29.06.2021, 20:23
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Indeed, with half the population with at least 1 dose, 35% fully vaccinated, and the people that already got it, the virus cannot spread as fast as before.
If delta is 50% faster at spreading that 33.3% would be equivalent to 0% vs the UK variant. We are going to see a big wave, and with quite a few deaths as the elderly take up is not good.
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Old 29.06.2021, 20:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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If delta is 50% faster at spreading that 33.3% would be equivalent to 0% vs the UK variant. We are going to see a big wave, and with quite a few deaths as the elderly take up is not good.
Whooopeee!!!!
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Old 29.06.2021, 21:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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...Frankly, who cares if they get it.
I do. Personal choice is important even if I think a person isn't making an informed choice. Also some folks cannot or should not take certain vaccines. I'm going to try not to be judgey. I don't wish illness upon anyone.
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Old 29.06.2021, 22:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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If delta is 50% faster at spreading that 33.3% would be equivalent to 0% vs the UK variant. We are going to see a big wave, and with quite a few deaths as the elderly take up is not good.
I guess everything that could be done was done. So, time to think about eulogies.
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Old 29.06.2021, 22:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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I do. Personal choice is important even if I think a person isn't making an informed choice. Also some folks cannot or should not take certain vaccines. I'm going to try not to be judgey. I don't wish illness upon anyone.
The vast majority of folks who do not take this vaccine are not making this decision for sound medical reasons, only about one person per million has such a relevant medical problem.

Of course, people are free to decide to accept the risk of not taking the vaccine but then it is a certain fact that some will get sick and possibly even die regardless of whether their choice was informed or not.
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Old 29.06.2021, 22:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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The vast majority of folks who do not take this vaccine are not making this decision for sound medical reasons, only about one person per million has such a relevant medical problem.

Of course, people are free to decide to accept the risk of not taking the vaccine but then it is a certain fact that some will get sick and possibly even die regardless of whether their choice was informed or not.
Absolutely. But to basically have Schadenfreude because someone gets sick and dies? Ok I guess some people feel that way but I don't.

If you believe stats posted a few pages back, the Delta variant has killed people in the UK who were fully vaxxed as well as those who weren't.
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Old 29.06.2021, 23:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Absolutely. But to basically have Schadenfreude because someone gets sick and dies? Ok I guess some people feel that way but I don't.

If you believe stats posted a few pages back, the Delta variant has killed people in the UK who were fully vaxxed as well as those who weren't.
I guess there's no Schadenfreude. It's a bit more like throwing the hands up, accepting. Wife and me have some proto-friends and some of them express their distrust in vaccines. I don want my possible future friend to die but at the same time, what can be done without losing balance and sanity?
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  #26774  
Old 29.06.2021, 23:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Absolutely. But to basically have Schadenfreude because someone gets sick and dies? Ok I guess some people feel that way but I don't.

If you believe stats posted a few pages back, the Delta variant has killed people in the UK who were fully vaxxed as well as those who weren't.
Please do not imply I have Schadenfreude.

What exactly are you trying to say with "the Delta variant has killed people in the UK who were fully vaxxed as well as those who weren't"?
Are you trying to claim that vaccination does not provide good protection?

According to Public Health England there were 15,893 possible reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 identified up to May 30, 2021 in England throughout the pandemic, out of nearly four million people with confirmed infections.
This is equivalent to around 0.4 per cent cases becoming reinfected.

Reinfections are cases where people who survived the virus or were vaccinated are again infected.

I rest my case!
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Old 29.06.2021, 23:17
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Re: Coronavirus

I know someone who is a nurse at a children's hospital here in CH and she told me that she's refusing to get the vaccine. That really shocked me.

A neighbor of mine had Covid in March, 2020 and told me that she's refusing to get the vaccine because she wants to have (quote) "natural immunity" instead.

Another woman I know said she doesn't want to get the vaccine because she doesn't want to have a sore arm.

You have to wonder how many people who are refusing to get the vaccine will end up very sick from the virus. I saw in the news the other day that a woman in her 30's recently committed suicide due to her struggles with "Long Covid."
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Old 29.06.2021, 23:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is equivalent to around 0.4 per cent cases becoming reinfected.

Reinfections are cases where people who survived the virus or were vaccinated are again infected.

I rest my case!
That sounds rather low, based on the claims of the vaccine manufactures
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Old 29.06.2021, 23:32
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Re: Coronavirus

marton, seems to me , petrified , really afraid of the virus , possible consequences.. I completely understand this and I have a total understanding for any kind of a logical or irrational fear.

Pity our media is so monochrome. Otherwise, marton, could've heard many immunologists, virologists, infection deseas specialists talk about this in a more rational manner.

Just for the record, concerning viruses, around 300 trillion viruses are living inside our bodies , this is some 10 times more , than bacteria.

Viruses including this one (sars cov) even though it's a retrovirus, is still having 99% survival rate . (since Marton is into numbers)

One thing to know about immunology , is how even when the virus is identified (isolated) and deactivated in order to make a vaccine...We're not all equal when it comes to biological process.
This means, some people will develop antibodies some won't develop any .
Some will but it'll be short lived . etc etc. yet, everyone things "we're vaccinated" "we're safe" but of course it's not like that at all .

I'm a survivor of the very deadly H1N1 virus from season 2009-2010 .. when , some scientists claimed how it's pandemic, endemic .. all continents are touched. This respiratory virus , is so tiny it enters the lungs in the most difficult areas, does ravages, (baterial infection) and it becomes deadly. Vaccines were provided in Dec 2009 . Yet, no one took the vaccine in spite of the governments even then, organising mass vaccinations , mobilising schools, council offices ,pharmacies... to vax huge masses. No one showed up. When asked "what are we going to do with all these vaccines" and also Tamiflu .. health ministers around europe , were giving some cynical smiles saying "we'll sell them or donate them to poor countries"

Few years on , different parliamentary commission , investigations.. concerning this "big deadly virus".. turned out WHO did admit they've exaggerated because they've been under a pressure from labs.
https://www.business-standard.com/ar...0600203_1.html

The reason I'm saying this, is only to recall how not everything you hear is really true or should really scare you . Time will pass by, ministers , gov PR , will be in different places, no one is going to be responsible for "creating a big scare" . In fact , no one had to take the consequences for any of the 'big virus scares' they did over the years . The fact how they try to turn vaxed people against unvaxxed is just a huge disgrace . Especially for a deadly virus that's not deadly for 99% of the population or the new vaccine technology RNA is guaranteeing immunity .
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  #26778  
Old 29.06.2021, 23:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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That sounds rather low, based on the claims of the vaccine manufactures
The vaccine manufacturer's claims were based on trials involving around 50,000 people.
The Public Health England study is based on results from 4 million people so likely to be more accurate.
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Old 30.06.2021, 03:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Pity our media is so monochrome. Otherwise, marton, could've heard many immunologists, virologists, infection deseas specialists talk about this in a more rational manner.
...
The reason I'm saying this, is only to recall how not everything you hear is really true or should really scare you . Time will pass by, ministers , gov PR , will be in different places, no one is going to be responsible for "creating a big scare" . In fact , no one had to take the consequences for any of the 'big virus scares' they did over the years . The fact how they try to turn vaxed people against unvaxxed is just a huge disgrace . Especially for a deadly virus that's not deadly for 99% of the population or the new vaccine technology RNA is guaranteeing immunity .
This is not the conspiracy thread. Please stay on topic here and post this kind of stuff there.
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Old 30.06.2021, 07:23
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Re: Coronavirus

Urs Max, I'm pro vax , I've been vaxxed with the whole lot . While I typed that comment there was a news channel in the background (mainstream media) and they were saying the same thing.
The only difference was, some words were said here and there, 20times one jumped into the other one's sentence and this information (some reasoning) did some 5% of the whole tv talk show . (this is why the viewer will process only the 90% of what's been said)

Those Dr - sci who were saying how the SAGE uk should be examined and they should immediately stop with the scaremongering since that's not medicine at all .. were facing other Dr- sci who think how yes , we should scare the population, make them anxious , offer little or no solutions ..

So you see, if people who are in this field , actively working and contributing can not agree (sometimes not at all) why would you expect us to agree here ? we can only benefit from recalling some information that we forgot .. Or , how we also forgot for certain lies and propaganda , there was no payback for any of the previous politicians, MP's , pharma industries (who lied and bribed) so , why would it be any different now and in the future .
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