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Old 05.07.2021, 13:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Good article in The Economist on variants. The Delta graph is quite impressive (modelled of course, and unmitigated spread).



Paywall, and text too long to post.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...e-unvaccinated
This looks interesting, but can somebody please help me understand better.

The first graph says in a country with 60% immunity.

I guess this means initially, as the outbreak should increase immunity, no? Or do they mean vaccine caused immunity?

In the case with the lower immunity, the peak is lower and also the peak occurs slightly earlier. The y axis shows total cases, not new cases, right?

The graph says this model assumes no mitigation. So there is no ongoing vaccination during this period and no quarantene of infected individuals.

Why the does the graph peak at all, or so early? Wouldn't it rip wild and eventually get something like 90% of the non immune population?
  #27042  
Old 05.07.2021, 13:47
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Re: Coronavirus

We're on the way back up in case numbers, deaths and hospitalisations seem flat.
Fri-Sat-Sunday combined

449 from 77k tests.
7 hospitilised
4 deaths

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Todays published numbers (fri, sat & sun) combined 239 out of 51 k tests

7 hospitalisations
4 death

https://www.20min.ch/story/das-ist-d...z-136662375229

Compared to last weekend 367 out of 55 k tests

11 hospitalisations
4 death
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  #27043  
Old 05.07.2021, 14:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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We're on the way back up in case numbers, deaths and hospitalisations seem flat.
Fri-Sat-Sunday combined

449 from 77k tests.
7 hospitilised
4 deaths
That article linked by Amogles says that Delta is racing away now, but very little impact in Israel/UK due to the very high immunization levels.
I guess if a country hasn’t got it’s act together then they’ll feel the impact a bit more.
  #27044  
Old 05.07.2021, 14:29
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Re: Coronavirus

A friend of mine had Covid19 in December, his jab 3 weeks ago and now has Covid19 again. So we´re not yet safe.......
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  #27045  
Old 05.07.2021, 14:33
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Re: Coronavirus

@ Roegner, what age group and fitness level? Any bad symptoms?
  #27046  
Old 05.07.2021, 14:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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A friend of mine had Covid19 in December, his jab 3 weeks ago and now has Covid19 again. So we´re not yet safe.......
Wow. Did he only have the one jab, then, since he had had Covid in December? I hope he's doing okay and doesn't have many symptoms.
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Old 05.07.2021, 14:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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@ Roegner, what age group and fitness level? Any bad symptoms?

Early 60, fit and healthy (normally), much worse symptoms than before. He didn´t specify
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  #27048  
Old 05.07.2021, 14:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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That article linked by Amogles says that Delta is racing away now, but very little impact in Israel/UK due to the very high immunization levels.
I guess if a country hasn’t got it’s act together then they’ll feel the impact a bit more.
Many countries simply can not afford to purchase the amounts needed.
Donations only cover that much.....

Studies show that current vaccines protect against Delta, but aready at a lower percentage compared to previous variants.

So its in everyones interest to get this under control before mutations show up that current vaccines no longer offer sufficient protection from.
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  #27049  
Old 05.07.2021, 15:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Many countries simply can not afford to purchase the amounts needed.
Donations only cover that much.....

Studies show that current vaccines protect against Delta, but aready at a lower percentage compared to previous variants.

So its in everyones interest to get this under control before mutations show up that current vaccines no longer offer sufficient protection from.
I don't think that's true. Both Alpha and Delta are running at around 95% - same figure more or less as observed in the clinical trials with early strains.

"According to an analysis by PHE, the Pfizer/BioNTech jab was linked to a 94% vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission with the Delta variant after one dose and 96% after two doses...

This protection against hospital admission is similar to that for the Alpha variant, for which the Pfizer figures were 83% and 95% after the first and second jabs respectively."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-the-vaccines
  #27050  
Old 05.07.2021, 15:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't think that's true. Both Alpha and Delta are running at around 95% - same figure more or less as observed in the clinical trials with early strains.

"According to an analysis by PHE, the Pfizer/BioNTech jab was linked to a 94% vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission with the Delta variant after one dose and 96% after two doses...

This protection against hospital admission is similar to that for the Alpha variant, for which the Pfizer figures were 83% and 95% after the first and second jabs respectively."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-the-vaccines
"Two weeks after receiving a second dose, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine appeared to provide 79% protection against infection with the Delta variant, compared with 92% protection against the Alpha variant, the study found."

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/fi...-we-still-need

"A new study has found that Covid-19 vaccines were eight times less effective against the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 compared to the Wuhan variant."

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronaviru...167-2021-07-05

"A study based on real-world data from the U.K. found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine were 88% effective at preventing COVID-19 as a result of an infection with the Delta variant. That’s just a notch down from the 95% efficacy it demonstrated in clinical trials against earlier, less transmissible strains."

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...-delta-variant
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  #27051  
Old 05.07.2021, 15:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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"Two weeks after receiving a second dose, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine appeared to provide 79% protection against infection with the Delta variant, compared with 92% protection against the Alpha variant, the study found."

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/fi...-we-still-need

"A new study has found that Covid-19 vaccines were eight times less effective against the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 compared to the Wuhan variant."

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronaviru...167-2021-07-05

"A study based on real-world data from the U.K. found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine were 88% effective at preventing COVID-19 as a result of an infection with the Delta variant. That’s just a notch down from the 95% efficacy it demonstrated in clinical trials against earlier, less transmissible strains."

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...-delta-variant
Preventing infection is pretty unimportant compared to preventing hospitalisation.
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  #27052  
Old 05.07.2021, 15:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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Preventing infection is pretty unimportant compared to preventing hospitalisation.
Exactly. Time to forget about infections and look at hospitalizations and deaths.
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Old 05.07.2021, 15:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Preventing infection is pretty unimportant compared to preventing hospitalisation.
Oh yes absolutley! However my first posting was more about countries that dont manage to vaccinate enough of their population.

"Vaccines are effective
Mr. Kluge reminded that vaccines are effective against the Delta variant: “not one dose but two doses”,

He added that delays in getting vaccinated cost lives and the economies, and the slower vaccination programmes are, the more variants will emerge.


https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/07/1095152
  #27054  
Old 05.07.2021, 15:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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This protection against hospital admission is ...
I really wouldn't want a protection against hospital admission.

Hospitals are quite useful places when you need them.

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  #27055  
Old 05.07.2021, 16:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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We're on the way back up in case numbers, deaths and hospitalisations seem flat.
Fri-Sat-Sunday combined

449 from 77k tests.
7 hospitilised
4 deaths
7 days average is +24%.
  #27056  
Old 05.07.2021, 16:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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7 days average is +24%.
Well this is a taste of things to come:
“ In Israel, known for its high vaccination coverage, the Covid-19 cases are rising again because of it, according to figures compiled by the " New York Times " in the last two weeks by 935 percent (as of July 5). ”
  #27057  
Old 05.07.2021, 16:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well this is a taste of things to come:
“ In Israel, known for its high vaccination coverage, the Covid-19 cases are rising again because of it, according to figures compiled by the " New York Times " in the last two weeks by 935 percent (as of July 5). ”
If the virus is spread mostly among kids and teenagers, the schools holidays might have a good influence on the numbers until the middle of August. Though in Kt ZH we still have two weeks of school and the numbers are growing from Jun 29 already, so some kids have a chance to get infected before holidays. We also have lots of events these weeks (concert in music school, school trips etc).

900% means from 40 cases to 300 per day (with population just a bit more than in CH). Doesn't look very scary.
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Old 05.07.2021, 16:54
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Re: Coronavirus

Spain: Rise in coronavirus infections in young people threatens to overwhelm primary care

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Mari Luz Talavera, a primary care nurse in the municipality of Caldes de Montbui (Barcelona), says that outbreaks among young people are "overwhelming" the team at the health centre. "We have gone from five or six cases per week a month ago to more than 30 or 40," explains the nurse, who is also vice-president of the Catalan Forum of Primary Care (Focap). And this situation has come at the worst time, she points out: "Just when we were beginning to open up our schedules to more face-to-face visits, to proactively monitor diabetic patients, those with thyroid problems or those with renal insufficiency. Many of them have gone through all these months of the pandemic without controls or follow-up".
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Old 05.07.2021, 17:52
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Re: Coronavirus

Reading between the lines it looks like there is a chronic capacity shortage that's been sometime in the making, as they point to funding in years gone by also.

Thus, the experts point out, a massive increase in hospitalizations and admission to intensive care is not expected, although they do warn that the burden of care pressure will be fully transferred to primary care, in charge of treating mild cases.

Any overload in an already precarious primary care will be very noticeable.

They are not going to give us work in terms of clinical control because they are mild cases without underlying diseases, so the follow-up and control is more spaced
  #27060  
Old 05.07.2021, 18:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Reading between the lines it looks like there is a chronic capacity shortage that's been sometime in the making, as they point to funding in years gone by also.

Thus, the experts point out, a massive increase in hospitalizations and admission to intensive care is not expected, although they do warn that the burden of care pressure will be fully transferred to primary care, in charge of treating mild cases.

Any overload in an already precarious primary care will be very noticeable.

They are not going to give us work in terms of clinical control because they are mild cases without underlying diseases, so the follow-up and control is more spaced
Well, I guess the general information in MajorGrubert's post is: If you take your six piece family on a holiday in Barcelone this summer, do not expect single rooms and free machines waiting for you in the hospitals there for you.
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