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Old 19.07.2021, 09:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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I edited my comment after you quoted, apologies.

Your comment is very frustrating ... a weakened version of the virus due to a vaccination is entirely why the majority of the population should be getting it. Your rhetoric that "you can still catch it anyway" is dangerous and will set progress back substantially.
It’s not dangerous, I also believed that having the vaccine would stop the spread. I’m just stating what the case numbers appear to indicate.
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  #27502  
Old 19.07.2021, 09:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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It’s not dangerous, I also believed that having the vaccine would stop the spread. I’m just stating what the case numbers appear to indicate.
It is dangerous because anti-vaxxers will use that rhetoric to convince others not to get vaxxed ...

Don't discount that numbers are also increasing because things are opening completely up & not enough people are vaccinated yet.
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  #27503  
Old 19.07.2021, 09:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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It’s not dangerous, I also believed that having the vaccine would stop the spread. I’m just stating what the case numbers appear to indicate.
That's just not correct. The unvaccinated have had proportionately far more cases per person. AZ only ever claimed 70% or so efficacy from catching it. The protection from death and hospitalisation is much better. Both are borne out in the stats.
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Old 19.07.2021, 10:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's just not correct. The unvaccinated have had proportionately far more cases per person. AZ only ever claimed 70% or so efficacy from catching it. The protection from death and hospitalisation is much better. Both are borne out in the stats.
Not in Israel, majority of new cases are in people who are double vaxxed. Also in the UK, infections of vaccinated have overtaken infections in people who are unvaccinated. These are the actual stats, look them up. It’s not preventing the spread.
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Old 19.07.2021, 10:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not in Israel, majority of new cases are in people who are double vaxxed. Also in the UK, infections of vaccinated have overtaken infections in people who are unvaccinated. These are the actual stats, look them up. It’s not preventing the spread.
Respectfully disagree.

Here is the graph for the UK:



As you can see, there are lots of unvaccinated people getting it, and lots who have only had their first vaccination.

It seems from the positivity that a single dose gives protection of c. 20%, and a double dose c. 80%. In reality it might be slightly better that if you want a comparison to immunologically naïve (as opposed to simply unvaccinated), as many of the unvaccinated people will have antibodies from natural infection. This is probably why the protection appears to be slowly shrinking over time. The control sample is becoming more and more polluted by those with antibodies.

Given we've been told AZ is about 70% effective for preventing delta infection, and mRNA is about 90%, the 80% figure (representing the weighted average of the vaccines used in the UK) looks to be in the right ballpark.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 19.07.2021 at 11:27.
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  #27506  
Old 19.07.2021, 11:05
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Re: Coronavirus

Shopping in Germany. No masks. Feels great.

Last edited by komsomolez; 19.07.2021 at 13:33.
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  #27507  
Old 19.07.2021, 11:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Shopping in Germany. No masks. Frels great.
Time we put a date in the diary for that here. Perhaps c. a month away when we've all had the chance for 2 doses + a 2 week period for them to take effect.
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  #27508  
Old 19.07.2021, 13:35
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Re: Coronavirus

Todays published numbers (fri, sat&sun) combined 1560 out of 80 k tests

29 hospitalisations
4 death

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Compared to last weekend 822 out of 86 k tests

8 hospitalisations
2 death
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  #27509  
Old 19.07.2021, 14:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Respectfully disagree.

Here is the graph for the UK:

As you can see, there are lots of unvaccinated people getting it, and lots who have only had their first vaccination.

It seems from the positivity that a single dose gives protection of c. 20%, and a double dose c. 80%. In reality it might be slightly better that if you want a comparison to immunologically naïve (as opposed to simply unvaccinated), as many of the unvaccinated people will have antibodies from natural infection. This is probably why the protection appears to be slowly shrinking over time. The control sample is becoming more and more polluted by those with antibodies.

Given we've been told AZ is about 70% effective for preventing delta infection, and mRNA is about 90%, the 80% figure (representing the weighted average of the vaccines used in the UK) looks to be in the right ballpark.
This is in line with what I posted yesterday "The latest Public Health England (PHE) figures show there were 92,029 confirmed Delta cases between 1 February and 22 June, only 8% were fully vaccinated."

My figure was for confirmed Delta cases, I assume yours was for all variants? I know the majority of cases are now Delta.

I do not understand why you waste your time replying to someone who simply invents their statistics.
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  #27510  
Old 19.07.2021, 14:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Time we put a date in the diary for that here. Perhaps c. a month away when we've all had the chance for 2 doses + a 2 week period for them to take effect.
Germany does not currently require that you are vaccinated or negative tested to go shopping so long as you do not stay more than 24 hours.
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  #27511  
Old 19.07.2021, 14:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Germany does not currently require that you are vaccinated or negative tested to go shopping so long as you do not stay more than 24 hours.
I thought Switzerland being a "safe country", that Germany is now open to travel more or less like normal. (regional exceptions apart)

Or have I missed some update?
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  #27512  
Old 19.07.2021, 14:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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I thought Switzerland being a "safe country", that Germany is now open to travel more or less like normal. (regional exceptions apart)

Or have I missed some update?
Here is the latest.
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  #27513  
Old 19.07.2021, 14:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Here is the latest.
according to that page

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In principle, entry is possible from:

- EU member states
- states associated with Schengen: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein
- other countries from which entry is possible in light of the epidemiological situation assessment by the EU.

bla bla bla

A negative test or proof of vaccination or recovery is not necessary for Entries to Germany by any means of transport other than air travel (i.e. by car or ship) if you have not been to an area of variant of concern.
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  #27514  
Old 19.07.2021, 14:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is in line with what I posted yesterday "The latest Public Health England (PHE) figures show there were 92,029 confirmed Delta cases between 1 February and 22 June, only 8% were fully vaccinated."

My figure was for confirmed Delta cases, I assume yours was for all variants? I know the majority of cases are now Delta.

I do not understand why you waste your time replying to someone who simply invents their statistics.
Its over 99% delta now so the distinction isnt really worth making. I think the rise from 8% to c. 11-12% is mainly due to the fact that so many of the unvaccinated now have antibodies from infection, which obviously reduces the apparent (but not actual) protection from vaccination.

My prediction - that 11-12% will rise and rise and rise which will get mediocre scientists flapping their hands.
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Old 19.07.2021, 14:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Its over 99% delta now so the distinction isnt really worth making. I think the rise from 8% to c. 11-12% is mainly due to the fact that so many of the unvaccinated now have antibodies from infection, which obviously reduces the apparent (but not actual) protection from vaccination.
I don't quite follow.

What's the difference between apparent and actual protection?

People being infected and not knowing it?

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My prediction - that 11-12% will rise and rise and rise which will get mediocre scientists flapping their hands.
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  #27516  
Old 19.07.2021, 15:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't quite follow.

What's the difference between apparent and actual protection?

People being infected and not knowing it?
Well the comparison is being made between the positivity in vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

Obviously the relative paucity of infections in vaccinated people will fall as the unvaccinated people get more and more antibodies through natural infections.

Eventually when all unvaccinated people have been infected, the positivity will likely be very similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

The better stat to look at would be vaccinated vs. zero antibodies - but that's harder to measure.

I'm probably not phrasing this well but hopefully you can see what I mean. There's a risk people read the statistics as the protection falling in vaccinated people when actually that's not driving the trend, its the infections in the unvaccinated.
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Old 19.07.2021, 15:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is in line with what I posted yesterday "The latest Public Health England (PHE) figures show there were 92,029 confirmed Delta cases between 1 February and 22 June, only 8% were fully vaccinated."

My figure was for confirmed Delta cases, I assume yours was for all variants? I know the majority of cases are now Delta.

I do not understand why you waste your time replying to someone who simply invents their statistics.
There is one point that does stand out as being a bit worrying. If protection is 80% from full vaccination, then I think (although the maths may be a bit more complex than I appreciate), then surely if R(0) is >5, then fully vaccinating the entire population isn't enough for herd immunity.

In this example if R is 10 (say) you'd need half the fully vaccinated population to catch it to reach herd immunity - presuming catching covid after vaccination gives 100% immunity.

I guess if im right the aim of the vaccination programme may be not so much herd immunity (achievable with alpha, but perhaps not with delta) as just making this disease something that is low hospitalisation and low mortality. I suspect we will all catch it sooner or later. It goes to show that "zero covid" is a pipe dream, even with vaccination.
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Old 19.07.2021, 15:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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I guess if im right the aim of the vaccination programme may be not so much herd immunity (achievable with alpha, but perhaps not with delta) as just making this disease something that is low hospitalisation and low mortality. I suspect we will all catch it sooner or later. It goes to show that "zero covid" is a pipe dream, even with vaccination.
Did you see the Marr interview with Neil Ferguson yesterday? Even he can't predict more than 3 weeks ahead with any degree of certainty.
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  #27519  
Old 19.07.2021, 15:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did you see the Marr interview with Neil Ferguson yesterday? Even he can't predict more than 3 weeks ahead with any degree of certainty.
To do that is impossible even with a full understanding of the science as human beings themselves are unpredictable! Most of all King Boris..

I think there are some long term truths that one can discern from the data. Obviously I am not qualified to really make those calls, but I think a scientifically minded person can at least ask right question with the data infront of them.
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Old 19.07.2021, 15:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well the comparison is being made between the positivity in vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

Obviously the relative paucity of infections in vaccinated people will fall as the unvaccinated people get more and more antibodies through natural infections.

Eventually when all unvaccinated people have been infected, the positivity will likely be very similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

The better stat to look at would be vaccinated vs. zero antibodies - but that's harder to measure.

I'm probably not phrasing this well but hopefully you can see what I mean. There's a risk people read the statistics as the protection falling in vaccinated people when actually that's not driving the trend, its the infections in the unvaccinated.
I believe most of the vaccinated people are elderly or otherwise vulnerable so I would not be surprised if the % of infections in vaccinated people eventually rises above the % of infections in unvaccinated people with immunity from actual infection.
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