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  #27521  
Old 19.07.2021, 15:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Respectfully disagree.

Here is the graph for the UK:



As you can see, there are lots of unvaccinated people getting it, and lots who have only had their first vaccination.

It seems from the positivity that a single dose gives protection of c. 20%, and a double dose c. 80%. In reality it might be slightly better that if you want a comparison to immunologically naïve (as opposed to simply unvaccinated), as many of the unvaccinated people will have antibodies from natural infection. This is probably why the protection appears to be slowly shrinking over time. The control sample is becoming more and more polluted by those with antibodies.

Given we've been told AZ is about 70% effective for preventing delta infection, and mRNA is about 90%, the 80% figure (representing the weighted average of the vaccines used in the UK) looks to be in the right ballpark.
Obvious that the vaccine is reducing infections.

A couple of questions:
What is positivity defined as here? Number of tests etc. Makes a big difference to results if different numbers tested in different weeks

For vaccinated people, what is transmission method? ( from non vaccinated or otherwise). Useful for future approach .
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  #27522  
Old 19.07.2021, 17:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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For vaccinated people, what is transmission method? ( from non vaccinated or otherwise). Useful for future approach .
Just to address this point, and seeing as covid is airborne, I'm still using this guide which was printed in the British Medical Journal, but perhaps adjusting the amber to green based upon double vaccination.

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  #27523  
Old 19.07.2021, 17:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just to address this point, and seeing as covid is airborne, I'm still using this guide which was printed in the British Medical Journal, but perhaps adjusting the amber to green based upon double vaccination.

Attachment 142245
A good and informative article but the guide chart is only this -
“ it presents a guide to how transmission risk may vary with setting, occupancy level, contact time, and whether face coverings are worn

Also what are Low,Medium &High defined as.

Sorry to be negative but it is just another diagram that estimates transmission rates but not based on actual data.

It is a good common sense guide though
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Old 19.07.2021, 18:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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They have, and often too! That’s why vaccine passports have been such a topic of conversation “to protect those who can’t have the vaccine”. If the vaccines aren’t as effective at preventing the spread of the virus, then there is one less reason to insist that others get it.
Exactly the contrary.

One key point is still to not overload the hospitals, this keeps being a necessity.

Since the vaccines are less effective, that means more people need to be vaxxed to get R down to the same level in order to still spread the unvaxxed cases over a useful time. Otherwise everybody gets ill during a much shorter time (colloquially phrased "at the same time") and a certain percentage thereof will need hospital care (also "at the same time").
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As it is, it’s looking more likely that the path to herd immunity means the vaccinated getting infected and enduring lesser symptoms in order to build up natural immunity ��♂️
Yes, assuming that's still attainable. The virus seems to mutate towards higher reproduction rates (the other variants don't make it against the dominant one and remain marginal or even disappear), so the rate of vaccinated may need to be ever to counter that. At some point its R may be higher than what can be countered with the available vaccines, which might require reactivating some of the measures we're just getting out of.

It's a moving target.
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  #27525  
Old 19.07.2021, 18:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Respectfully disagree.

Here is the graph for the UK:



As you can see, there are lots of unvaccinated people getting it, and lots who have only had their first vaccination.

It seems from the positivity that a single dose gives protection of c. 20%, and a double dose c. 80%. In reality it might be slightly better that if you want a comparison to immunologically naïve (as opposed to simply unvaccinated), as many of the unvaccinated people will have antibodies from natural infection. This is probably why the protection appears to be slowly shrinking over time. The control sample is becoming more and more polluted by those with antibodies.

Given we've been told AZ is about 70% effective for preventing delta infection, and mRNA is about 90%, the 80% figure (representing the weighted average of the vaccines used in the UK) looks to be in the right ballpark.
Data from Israel shows now that mRNA vaccines provide nowhere near 90% efficacy at preventing infection. Latest data reports that they are currently 64% effective, and this number is shrinking all the time as more and more vaccinated people get the virus.

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The vaccine had a 64 per cent efficacy rate from early June until early July, the latest figures show, down from 94 per cent a month earlier. The decrease coincides with a period in which the government reversed coronavirus restrictions and the delta variant spread through the country.
Source:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...riant-spreads/

In the UK the picture is even bleaker as AZ is clearly failing to prevent the spread of Covid. The following graph was published on the ZOE app (and then removed, funny that ), which shows the infections of those having received a single dose of the vaccine now having overtaken those who are unvaccinated. This trend is continuing, also amongst those who are fully vaccinated.



Every week as more data comes in, the efficacy of these vaccines against transmission is dropping. This is evident in the UKs weekly vaccine surveillance reports. From real world data AZ now has an effectiveness against full symptomatic Covid at 60%. Again, this figure is dropping all the time. I guess with hindsight this was to be expected considering the vaccine trials only lasted about 3-4 months.

Ultimately the picture is becoming ever clearer, that these vaccines aren't the silver bullet we'd hoped for to prevent Covid transmissio, which means the entire rationale of being vaccinated to protect others – vaccine passports, compulsory vaccination etc. is completely redundant.

I'm just telling the story of what the data is telling us. Those who can't or who are unwilling to accept the data are simply in denial of an increasingly obvious reality. However this comes as no surprise, it was the same story with facemasks.
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  #27526  
Old 19.07.2021, 18:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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A good and informative article but the guide chart is only this -
“ it presents a guide to how transmission risk may vary with setting, occupancy level, contact time, and whether face coverings are worn

Also what are Low,Medium &High defined as.

Sorry to be negative but it is just another diagram that estimates transmission rates but not based on actual data.

It is a good common sense guide though
The full article is linked below, and peer review docs are linked in the tabs -

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223
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  #27527  
Old 19.07.2021, 18:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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In the UK the picture is even bleaker as AZ is clearly failing to prevent the spread of Covid. The following graph was published on the ZOE app (and then removed, funny that ), which shows the infections of those having received a single dose of the vaccine now having overtaken those who are unvaccinated. This trend is continuing, also amongst those who are fully vaccinated.



Every week as more data comes in, the efficacy of these vaccines against transmission is dropping. This is evident in the UKs weekly vaccine surveillance reports. From real world data AZ now has an effectiveness against full symptomatic Covid at 60%. Again, this figure is dropping all the time. I guess with hindsight this was to be expected considering the vaccine trials only lasted about 3-4 months.

Ultimately the picture is becoming ever clearer, that these vaccines aren't the silver bullet we'd hoped for to prevent Covid transmissio, which means the entire rationale of being vaccinated to protect others – vaccine passports, compulsory vaccination etc. is completely redundant.

I'm just telling the story of what the data is telling us. Those who can't or who are unwilling to accept the data are simply in denial of an increasingly obvious reality. However this comes as no surprise, it was the same story with facemasks.
You are doing exactly what I warned people would do in my post above. Observing a trend of seemingly declining protection from infection of the fully vaccinated population versus the unvaccinated, and attributing that to declining immunity following vaccination.

One must remember that the virus has ripped through the unvaccinated population and so they now have quite high levels (and increasing) of immunity.

To make the conclusion you have, you need to compare the positivity of the fully vaccinated with the immunologically naive.

You are also lumping in the single vaccinated together with the double vaccinated which I think is really unhelpful and results in a misleading graph. If you aren't going to separate out the single vaccinated its better to lump them in with the unvaccinated, as its undisputed that for delta you only get significant protection following the second dose.

PS. I'm not in denial. I think we won't get to herd immunity with vaccination alone unless we get to near universal coverage (including children) with mRNA. I also think masks are basically a waste of time at present even if they are efficacious in disrupting infection in the community (which I doubt), at best stretching out the peak and not preventing total infections. If we need infections for herd immunity, and we can't eradicate covid then what's the point in trying to prevent infections unless the hospitals are in trouble.

The headline is that we need to accept that once we've done our best efforts with vaccination then we need to let it rip. I can't see us getting much past where Israel is already at with vaccination and their efforts aren't enough....

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  #27528  
Old 19.07.2021, 19:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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The full article is linked below, and peer review docs are linked in the tabs -

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223
Yes I read it and it is very interesting but it does state that the guide shows how transmission may vary with setting/mask etc.

It is also an estimation. Not based on data.

As I said it makes good sense as a guide.
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  #27529  
Old 19.07.2021, 19:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Exactly the contrary.

One key point is still to not overload the hospitals, this keeps being a necessity.

Since the vaccines are less effective, that means more people need to be vaxxed to get R down to the same level in order to still spread the unvaxxed cases over a useful time. Otherwise everybody gets ill during a much shorter time (colloquially phrased "at the same time") and a certain percentage thereof will need hospital care (also "at the same time").
Even this argument for getting the vaccine loses weight when one considers that being under 65 and healthy (or rather of a healthy weight) means that a hospital stay is very unlikely indeed. Being over 65 and/or overweight, then it’s a very good idea to get the vaccine, for everyone else it’s up to them.
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Old 19.07.2021, 20:26
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Re: Coronavirus

@ HickvonFrick

Some interesting statistics relating to herd immunity

From the Public Health England COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 28

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Based on antibody testing of blood donors, 90.9% of the adult population now have antibodies to COVID-19 from either infection or vaccination compared to 16.3% that have antibodies from infection alone. Over 96% of adults aged 40 or older have antibodies from either infection or vaccination.
It appears that 90% of adults is not enough for herd immunity as infections continue to rise, presumably due to reinfections?
Children are not usually blood donors so no comparable statistics.

Immunity %ges quoted due to vaccines are higher in this article than our resident coronavirus expert quotes from his unknown sources.

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  #27531  
Old 19.07.2021, 20:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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@ HickvonFrick

Some interesting statistics relating to herd immunity

From the Public Health England COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 28



It appears that 90% of adults is not enough for herd immunity as infections continue to rise, presumably due to reinfections?
Children are not usually blood donors so no comparable statistics.

Immunity %ges quoted due to vaccines are higher in this article than our resident coronavirus expert quotes from his unknown sources.

Attachment 142251
Attachment 142252
Exactly. If over 95% of adults having antibodies isn't enough for herd immunity, its essentially unattainable and the only route is to accept the relatively socially acceptable hospitalisation and death rates (around 0.1%), let the disease take its course and become endemic. It'll probably be a bit nastier than that in Switzerland for a while because (somewhat amazingly) 1 in 6 or so over 80s doesn't seem to want the vaccine. Let's hope they are mostly recoverees.

We've saved a lot of lives by socially distancing until the vaccines came along, but unless we want to do it forever there is no longer much point.
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  #27532  
Old 19.07.2021, 20:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Exactly. If over 95% of adults having antibodies isn't enough for herd immunity, its essentially unattainable and the only route is to accept the relatively socially acceptable hospitalisation and death rates (around 0.1%), let the disease take its course and become endemic. It'll probably be a bit nastier than that in Switzerland for a while because (somewhat amazingly) 1 in 6 or so over 80s doesn't seem to want the vaccine. Let's hope they are mostly recoverees.

We've saved a lot of lives by socially distancing until the vaccines came along, but unless we want to do it forever there is no longer much point.
I think it's also because of misleading stats. The numbers folks take a small sample and extrapolate to the population as a whole, so it seems like 90% have antibodies, but we all know they haven't tested literally 90% of the population to know for sure who has which antibodies and how much of them.
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  #27533  
Old 19.07.2021, 21:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Even this argument for getting the vaccine loses weight when one considers that being under 65 and healthy (or rather of a healthy weight) means that a hospital stay is very unlikely indeed. Being over 65 and/or overweight, then it’s a very good idea to get the vaccine, for everyone else it’s up to them.
England had 606 hospital admissions on Saturday, that implies some 730 for the UK. With 5-10 days delay from symptom onset to hospitalisation (I'm using 7 days hence the 30.2k on the 10th) that's still ~2.4% hospitalisation rate. If the UK has the same number of hospital beds per capita as CH (not counting rehab and psychiatric beds), that's 8 patients for each and every hospital bed.

That's some two months where 100% had to be used for covid patients if everybody gets infected by Delta. I'm not saying that'll happen, it just reflects the available data (in an admittedly simple way, Hick is right with his remark).

It's not that long since you were lamenting the increased suffering, or even loss of life, among those whose treatment had to be postponed due to covid. Now you argue for action that would cause exactly that, no wonder you annoy just about everybody.
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  #27534  
Old 19.07.2021, 21:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think it's also because of misleading stats. The numbers folks take a small sample and extrapolate to the population as a whole, so it seems like 90% have antibodies, but we all know they haven't tested literally 90% of the population to know for sure who has which antibodies and how much of them.
As you can see in the link I gave they have been testing many blood donors over a long period of time with consistent results so it is hard to support a claim of misleading.
In the tables below the S lines are from vaccination and the N from infection.

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Old 19.07.2021, 21:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think it's also because of misleading stats. The numbers folks take a small sample and extrapolate to the population as a whole, so it seems like 90% have antibodies, but we all know they haven't tested literally 90% of the population to know for sure who has which antibodies and how much of them.
Respectfully disagree. A small sample of a few thousand is plenty to get a very accurate figure if it is properly weighted to match the country's demographics whereas an unrepresentative sample of millions can be miles out.

I refer the honourable gentleman to the literary digest poll of several million readers for the 1936 election which suggested Republican Alf Landon would beat Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt...

https://news.google.com/newspapers?i...y-digest&hl=en
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Old 19.07.2021, 22:06
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Re: Coronavirus

UK opening is not all that was expected
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British nightclubs and other crowded venues will require proof of full COVID-19 vaccination upon entry later this year, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said at a press conference today.

The requirement will begin at the end of September when "all over 18s will have had their chance to be double jabbed," Johnson said.
Proof of a negative COVID-19 test will no longer be enough to enter crowded locations.
Carrot rather than stick approach.
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Old 19.07.2021, 22:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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UK opening is not all that was expected


Carrot rather than stick approach.
Begs the question of how you define a "nightclub"
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Old 19.07.2021, 22:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Some interesting statistics relating to herd immunity

From the Public Health England COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 28
Say what you want about bumbling BoJo (I'm unlikely to disagree), but that campaign was one superbly executed effort.
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Old 19.07.2021, 22:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Respectfully disagree. A small sample of a few thousand is plenty to get a very accurate figure if it is properly weighted to match the country's demographics whereas an unrepresentative sample of millions can be miles out.

I refer the honourable gentleman to the literary digest poll of several million readers for the 1936 election which suggested Republican Alf Landon would beat Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt...

https://news.google.com/newspapers?i...y-digest&hl=en
Maybe I'm not phrasing very well. I don't mean that majority of those providing the info are deliberately misleading. I mean that most regular folks don't know how to interpret the sheer volume of different stats being produced, and the media often doesn't share them in a meaningful or useful way. Then there are those outlets that deliberately twist stats to fit a particular narrative.

There's also the choice of language used. Percentages this and percentages that, "surges" of cases, a "crisis", etc. One week we're all going to die of Covid because cases "went up 100%" and the next week "yay, we're 90% vaxxed".

It's easy to see how so many people are confused and doubt what they're being told.
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Old 19.07.2021, 22:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Data from Israel shows now that mRNA vaccines provide nowhere near 90% efficacy at preventing infection. Latest data reports that they are currently 64% effective, and this number is shrinking all the time as more and more vaccinated people get the virus.......
Genuine question -- what exactly do we mean by '90% effective' (or any other percentage)?

Does it mean that in all circumstances in a given period there will 100% protection for 9 people out of 10, regardless of one's behaviour? So that if 10 double-vaccinated people spent a year in the the company of infected people, and spent their evenings dancing the night away in crowded nightclubs, then only 1 out to of those 10 people would eventually get infected? Or does it mean that if just one person behaved like that and was tested once a month for 10 months, they would probably test positive in one of those months? Or does it mean that if a person behaved exactly the same way as they did before being vaccinated, they would reduce their risk by 90%? (And there are plenty more suggested interpretations of 90% effectiveness.)

The point I'm making is to question whether we are comparing like with like. From this lay person's position, the graphs clearly show a strong reduction in infection for those who are double vaccinated. And when questioned on whether this trend was changing, a very interesting point was made by Van Tam in tonight's UK press conference, when he said that it's a statistical fact that higher rates of doubly vaccinated people will test positive as more and more people are vaccinated. I'm paraphrasing but he asked us to look at it logically, and said something like: "When everyone in the country has been vaccinated, 100% of all Covid infections will be in doubly vaccinated people".

The powerful logic of that statement has stuck with me. Yes, it's obvious that a higher proportion of positive tests will be from doubly vaccinated people, the closer we get to full vaccination because the number of unvaccinated people will be vanishingly small.

I'm not trying to trick you, or anyone else. I'm asking some real questions about how some of these figures are presented and processed into misinformation (possibly on both sides). But one thing is certain -- the Covid pandemic, once over, will provide a very fertile area for Philosophy classes when discussing examples of faulty logic, false syllogisms, and biased premises driven by pre-existing prejudices.
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