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  #27581  
Old 20.07.2021, 14:23
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Re: Coronavirus

I don't like the flattening of the vaccine curve. It looks like things are flattening out and we'll be lucky to hit 60%.

You'd think with this delta thing about that a few of the more "wait and see" types would sign up for it.
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  #27582  
Old 20.07.2021, 14:30
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Re: Coronavirus

Very sadly one of my friends from back home has died out of the blue at 38.

They better change the quarantine rules in advance of his funeral.
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  #27583  
Old 20.07.2021, 14:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Very sadly one of my friends from back home has died out of the blue at 38.

They better change the quarantine rules in advance of his funeral.
Sorry for your loss

I believe you can leave quarantine for a funeral or you could 6 months ago in the U.K.
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  #27584  
Old 20.07.2021, 14:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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....
I think there are several posters on the EF who are much less clear than TC and also cultivate a much more confrontational tone, may I see needlessly so. But they seem to get away with it because, well, they tend to be on the side of those who take issue. I think we would all do well to sometimes stop and read our own words and ask whether we are being fair, and whether there is not a more pleasant way to voice disagreement or criticism.
Fair comment, and I'd broaden that out further about the difference between how we come across on the page compared with how we really are. I didn't take the remark as aimed at me or anyone in particular but I do have a 'mea culpa' that I've kept meaning to mention at some point. I worked as an English teacher early in my career, then went on to work as an editor for many years, making a living correcting other people's written English. This has certainly unconsciously affected my own writing. Friends have complained that my emails and messages are far too formal in tone. Someone recently asked: 'Why does the most laid-back guy I know make himself sound so uptight all the time when he writes?' Certainly, anyone who's ever sat next to me in one of the Zurich pubs during a big football match will know that my EF persona isn't really who I am at all . I suppose that some people deliberately try to present themselves as something other than they are (for whatever reason), while others can't really help it. So I do endorse the sentiment highlighted.

Last edited by Pachyderm; 21.07.2021 at 20:45. Reason: Corrected a misspelling, proving my point I suppose.
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  #27585  
Old 20.07.2021, 15:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Besides, if Sweden's strategy actually worked they wouldn't vaccinate, instead they'd continue letting the virus do its thing. Prime minister Löfven and the king have admitted in December that Tegnell's strategy was a failure.
No masks, no lockdowns, no child lost a day at school. “A failure”.

This is why I prefer to look at stats rather than listen to politicians.

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  #27586  
Old 20.07.2021, 15:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Fair comment, and I'd broaden that out further about the difference between how we come across on the page compared with how we really are. I didn't take the remark as aimed at me or anyone in particular but I do have a 'mea culpa' that I've kept meaning to mention at some point. I worked as an English teacher early in my career, then went on to work as an editor for many years, making a living correcting other people's written English. This has certainly unconsciously affected my own writing. Friends have complained that my emails and messages are far too formal in tone. Someone recently asked: 'Why does the most laid-back guy I know make himself sound so uptight all the time when he writes?' Certainly, anyone who's ever sat next to me in one of the Zurich pubs during a big football match will know that my EF persona isn't realy who I am at all . I suppose that some people deliberately try to present themselves as something other than they are (for whatever reason), while others can't really help it. So I do endorse the sentiment highlighted.
Yes! I agree. But I don't read your texts as too formal or officious. And there are a few here. I am mostly not ditzy in my regular life either, online gets a bit make-believe sometimes. Life is too short for uptight.

Tone makes an impression on me as a sincere and civil guy, people don't like his ideas I think or don't get them, but it's not like he needs to be liked, worshipped or popular or suck up to grumps:



I don't do soccer pubs so don't know..symphonies? Rock gigs? But you can season a stiff text with a lot of emojis and ott punctuation. Finkum-style.
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Last edited by MusicChick; 20.07.2021 at 16:55.
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  #27587  
Old 20.07.2021, 15:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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It’s very simple, 90% efficacy means that 90% of people who have been fully vaccinated will not develop symptomatic Covid. Not having symptoms means that one is far less likely to transmit the virus. Data from Israel for the Pfizer-Biontech now places this value at 64% and dropping. This trend is being reflected in other countries like the UK, Malta and Gibraltar which has high rates of vaccination.

The saving grace is that until now the vaccines do appear to be holding ground on their efficacy against serious illness and death, although this too is starting to show signs of now being as effective as the trials for all vaccines suggested.
Wrong


It is this…

If, in a control group of say 200, 100 get vaccine and 100 a placebo.
After a nominal time period the number in each group who contracted Covid arecompared.

If 2 from vaccine group and 15 from placebo contracted then

VE (Efficacy)% = ( ( 15-2) / 15 ) *100


So in my example 87% Efficacy
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  #27588  
Old 20.07.2021, 15:21
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Re: Coronavirus

Soooo...Is Vaud vaxing kids? I just got back to CH and it seems as they don't vax them yet.
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  #27589  
Old 20.07.2021, 15:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Very sadly one of my friends from back home has died out of the blue at 38.

They better change the quarantine rules in advance of his funeral.
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Sorry for your loss

I believe you can leave quarantine for a funeral or you could 6 months ago in the U.K.
So sorry for your loss.

It is possible to get a legal exemption to leave quarantine to attend a funeral in certain cases.
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  #27590  
Old 20.07.2021, 16:04
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Re: Coronavirus

Excess deaths in India are 4 million. Ten times the official figure, and putting them at the hardest hit country in the world https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57888460
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  #27591  
Old 20.07.2021, 16:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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No masks, no lockdowns, no child lost a day at school. “A failure”.

This is why I prefer to look at stats rather than listen to politicians.
I'm not going to discuss any kind of data you don't provide the source for. That's just a general remark though, and not applicable to the point at hand.

The point is that you "knew" all along and with certainty that Sweden's approach was superior before the fact. That just doesn't allow your claim that you go by the data.
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  #27592  
Old 20.07.2021, 16:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Soooo...Is Vaud vaxing kids? I just got back to CH and it seems as they don't vax them yet.
I assume when you say kids you mean over 12s?
Vaud has been vaccinating them since June 22nd.

https://www.vd.ch/toutes-les-actuali...vaud/#c2075348
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  #27593  
Old 20.07.2021, 16:32
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Re: Coronavirus

Yes, got my VD updates.
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  #27594  
Old 20.07.2021, 18:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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I find cherry-picking bits out of scientific studies then using them to come to a different conclusion than the study did, sometimes even so far as an opposite one, to be annoying.
I thought it was called peer review
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  #27595  
Old 20.07.2021, 20:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, got my VD updates.
Are you sure?
Quote:
: a contagious disease (as gonorrhea or syphilis) that is typically acquired in sexual intercourse —abbreviation VD.
Anyway back on topic to a nomination for EF optimist of the week
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For months and months, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis touted his brand of Florida exceptionalism when it comes to how the state responded to Covid-19. Now a surge in cases — primarily among those who remain unvaccinated — is creating an inconvenient interruption to that narrative.

Cases in the state more than doubled in the past week and now hospitals around the state are seeing a jump in admissions, forcing some of them to impose restrictions on visitations.

When asked about it on Monday, DeSantis brushed it aside and said he had previously cautioned that this could happen. “It’s a seasonal virus and this is the seasonal pattern it follows in the Sun Belt states,” he told reporters during a Central Florida press conference.
He is correct in that the first wave peaked in Florida in July 2020, the second wave was even bigger and peaked in January this year.
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  #27596  
Old 20.07.2021, 22:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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That % increase looks a little less bad that some recent figures, week on week.
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Nearly doubling to slightly less than that still isn't so encouraging.

Are there so many test numbers last week because people were going away on holiday / are required to test to enter certain events, etc.? I wonder how many are asymptomatic.
Susie-Q you might be right, the holiday schedule might have something to do with it.

However, when looking at data like this, it is always important to look at the figures both as relative (double last week) and absolute values (very low number of positive tests). Even though the number of positive tests (or even percent positive tests) nearly doubled, they remain very low. So much so that I doubt that there is any statistical difference between the absolute values reported. Ergo a reasonable interpretation of these numbers might be 'no change' - for now.

FYI this is a common problem in how risks are communicated in scientific literature. A calculated risk of an event like 4 per 10,000 patients in the control arm and 6 per 10,000 patients in a dosing arm of a study often gets reported in the scientific publication as a 50% increase in risk for the patients receiving treatment. Even in cases where the increase is statistically significant, it may not be biologically relevant (biologically real) and/or the slight additional risk might be far outweighed by the benefit of the intervention in at least a subpopulation of patients (e.g. hormone replacement therapy in post-menopausal women with a low risk for hormonal cancers, but a high risk for osteoporosis).
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Old 20.07.2021, 22:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you sure?
You forgot Swiss cantons again? VD = canton Vaud
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  #27598  
Old 20.07.2021, 22:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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I thought it was called peer review
Only when you send it to the authors of the study, they could probably do with some comic relief.
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  #27599  
Old 21.07.2021, 07:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wrong


It is this…

If, in a control group of say 200, 100 get vaccine and 100 a placebo.
After a nominal time period the number in each group who contracted Covid arecompared.

If 2 from vaccine group and 15 from placebo contracted then

VE (Efficacy)% = ( ( 15-2) / 15 ) *100


So in my example 87% Efficacy
The only thing your example demonstrates is why it’s wrong to put so much faith in scientists to take decisions. The most frustrating part of working with scientists, technicians and engineers is their ability to get bogged down in minor details whilst completely missing the bigger picture.

Real world data is showing the efficacy (or effectiveness if you prefer, ultimately for the sake of this argument they may as well be the same thing!) of these vaccines against transmission to be significantly less than measured in trials. The headline should be “argument for vaccine passports and enforced vaccination collapses as evidence mounts”. Yet there’s people like you focussing a description deliberately made for the layman ��
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  #27600  
Old 21.07.2021, 08:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Real world data is showing the efficacy (or effectiveness if you prefer, ultimately for the sake of this argument they may as well be the same thing!) of these vaccines against transmission to be significantly less than measured in trials.
Where did you get your data from?

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The only thing your example demonstrates is why it’s wrong to put so much faith in scientists to take decisions. The most frustrating part of working with scientists, technicians and engineers is their ability to get bogged down in minor details whilst completely missing the bigger picture.
Everyone in the field of epidemiology said that without mass vaccination we won't get back to normal very soon. I wouldn't contest obvious, basic facts.
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