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  #27641  
Old 21.07.2021, 23:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Even though the number of positive tests (or even percent positive tests) nearly doubled, they remain very low. So much so that I doubt that there is any statistical difference between the absolute values reported. Ergo a reasonable interpretation of these numbers might be 'no change' - for now.
The percentage of positive tests almost quadrupled in the last three weeks, from .7% to 2.7%. It doubles every ten days, as it did in the most recent ten days. More importantly, there's no end to that trend in sight.

Not sure how you can say that's nothing.
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  #27642  
Old 22.07.2021, 13:41
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Re: Coronavirus

Todays published numbers 861 out of 21 k tests

14 hospitalisations*
7 death*

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

*Today’s “Difference to previous day” may include additional hospitalisations – because of the subsequent reception of reports going back more than two weeks.

Compared to last week thursday 582 out of 27 k tests

7 hospitalisations*
2 death *

* Today’s “Difference to previous day” may include additional hospitalisations – because of the subsequent reception of reports going back more than two weeks.
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  #27643  
Old 22.07.2021, 13:43
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Re: Coronavirus

Yikes and the positivity rate went up to 4 percent ...
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Old 22.07.2021, 14:01
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Re: Coronavirus

Not too inspriring. Cases and hospitalizations seem to double every 8 days, the latter of course based on low absolutes. The poor vaccination rates in the 50-70 yrs old make this look like a problem building up. Even the 70+ are only at 80%.
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Old 22.07.2021, 14:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Todays published numbers 861 out of 21 k tests

14 hospitalisations*
7 death*

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

*Today’s “Difference to previous day” may include additional hospitalisations – because of the subsequent reception of reports going back more than two weeks.

Compared to last week thursday 582 out of 27 k tests

7 hospitalisations*
2 death *

* Today’s “Difference to previous day” may include additional hospitalisations – because of the subsequent reception of reports going back more than two weeks.
Is it known what percentage of deaths are delta?
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  #27646  
Old 22.07.2021, 15:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is it known what percentage of deaths are delta?
Mid July data says 94% of cases are assumed to be Delta. Early July was still around 70%. That gives an idea. Don't think there is separate data for the very few deaths.
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Old 22.07.2021, 15:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mid July data says 94% of cases are assumed to be Delta. Early July was still around 70%. That gives an idea. Don't think there is separate data for the very few deaths.
Thanks,

I was wondering more if there is any indication of delta infections being more or less likely to result in death. I would expect less likely simply because the young are being infected predominantly. But it would be interesting to see if statistics follow the expectations or indicate a different trend.
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Old 22.07.2021, 15:17
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Re: Coronavirus

So - I haven't really been keeping up with this thread - but are the Swiss keeping stats of breakthrough infections?

We hear that in the US 95% of cases are from the unvaccinated - but as far as I can tell, I haven't seen many stats on that here.
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  #27649  
Old 22.07.2021, 15:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thanks,

I was wondering more if there is any indication of delta infections being more or less likely to result in death. I would expect less likely simply because the young are being infected predominantly. But it would be interesting to see if statistics follow the expectations or indicate a different trend.
Haven't read anything robust on that issue. But your point is logical, and likely to mean that it is difficult to get good data on real Delta fatality rates as the share of the naive population is smaller and smaller.

There was a recent study that showed Delta to have a significantly higher viral load - which explains higher natural R and could inficate potentially higher risk (there were earlier studies on Beta that clearly showed link between viral load and severity of illness).
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  #27650  
Old 22.07.2021, 18:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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So - I haven't really been keeping up with this thread - but are the Swiss keeping stats of breakthrough infections?

We hear that in the US 95% of cases are from the unvaccinated - but as far as I can tell, I haven't seen many stats on that here.
I think rather than % from vaccinated and % from unvaccinated the most informative measure to look at is positivity in the unvaccinated and vaccinated populations.

For the UK, you are about 5 times more likely to get infected if you are unvaccinated.

Naturally, if you are both unvaccinated and not previously infected, that figure is going to be higher still.
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Old 22.07.2021, 20:38
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Re: Coronavirus

is there a vaccinated and sick covid anyway?
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Old 22.07.2021, 20:48
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Re: Coronavirus

It would be interesting to know what symptoms most or many people who have been fully vaccinated do experience, if they get Covid. I suppose that can probably range quite a bit, but I did read the other day that sneezing seems to be more common among people who have been fully vaccinated compared to people who haven't been, for some reason. Maybe that's the vaccine's way of telling the virus to "Get the F out."

But I wonder how many people who have been fully vaxxed still develop a fever or loss of taste and smell, etc. if they catch Covid. Or do you think the majority are asymptomatic?
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  #27653  
Old 23.07.2021, 06:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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It would be interesting to know what symptoms most or many people who have been fully vaccinated do experience, if they get Covid. I suppose that can probably range quite a bit, but I did read the other day that sneezing seems to be more common among people who have been fully vaccinated compared to people who haven't been, for some reason. Maybe that's the vaccine's way of telling the virus to "Get the F out."

But I wonder how many people who have been fully vaxxed still develop a fever or loss of taste and smell, etc. if they catch Covid. Or do you think the majority are asymptomatic?
I don't know what to believe, if you read various sources you get the idea that vaccinated folks are not going to develop a severe form which would require hospitalisation, but I'm not sure about the symptoms in general or lack thereof. Probably most are asymptomatic or present very mild symptoms e.g. sneezing, albeit if I had to look out for that it would be difficult as dust, pollen and lots of other allergens can cause sneezing.
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Old 23.07.2021, 07:34
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Re: Coronavirus

Israel now reporting that latest data suggest that the effectiveness of the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine at preventing transmission is at 40%. Also reports from Israel that the effectiveness of the vaccine wears off in relation to the time elapsed since the vaccine was taken, and also that the vaccine isn’t as effective in elderly patients. “Experts” contest this data.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/livebl...-transmission/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel...nt-believe-it/

Interestingly the BBC also leading the news this morning on a vaccine related story about the interval between Pfizer jabs. Only interesting because the entire story is based off a preprint paper. Good enough for the BBC, but not good enough for EF

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57929953
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Old 23.07.2021, 07:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Israel now reporting that latest data suggest that the effectiveness of the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine at preventing transmission is at 40%. Also reports from Israel that the effectiveness of the vaccine wears off in relation to the time elapsed since the vaccine was taken, and also that the vaccine isn’t as effective in elderly patients. “Experts” contest this data.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/livebl...-transmission/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel...nt-believe-it/

Interestingly the BBC also leading the news this morning on a vaccine related story about the interval between Pfizer jabs. Only interesting because the entire story is based off a preprint paper. Good enough for the BBC, but not good enough for EF

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57929953
Stopped reading at: "New figures released by the Health Ministry claim that the COVID vaccine is only 39% effective at preventing the transmission of the coronavirus, but more than 91% effective at preventing severe cases."
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  #27656  
Old 23.07.2021, 08:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Stopped reading at: "New figures released by the Health Ministry claim that the COVID vaccine is only 39% effective at preventing the transmission of the coronavirus, but more than 91% effective at preventing severe cases."
I read from both texts that caution should be still high - if people still get sick even when vax, they don't develop serious form of the disease but they are symptomatic and pass it on. Basically, a flu situ. But after vaxing. So, still get vaxed so we can have only a flu like situation. That's why cca 10 days ago, 2 wks ago media have come up with Covid becoming a serious illness of the unvaxed, predominantly.

I saw in CZ the frantic efforts to vax - of those who stayed at home and didn't leave the country on hols. Young people, around 20-30. Because they realized that they will be the transmitters/vectors even if they don't get seriously ill nor left abroad to bring delta. Those holiday makers abroad are vaxed but will still bring delta, it looks like. The country has quickly organized vax centers without registration, main train-station was a good idea - it's covered, accessible to thousands of commuters and central. The interest is huge and those centers use up vax excess from regular vaxing places/hospitals. They also approach certain homeless part of population that tends to hang out around train station and wouldn't bother showing up in hospitals. You wait a bit, you get vaxed. It is super fast.
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Old 23.07.2021, 08:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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and also that the vaccine isn’t as effective in elderly patients.
It’s called immunosenescence. I’m not sure why anyone would be surprised by this, the immune system declines with age and vaccines are generally less effective in older people.
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Old 23.07.2021, 08:37
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Israel now reporting that latest data suggest that the effectiveness of the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine at preventing transmission is at 40%. Also reports from Israel that the effectiveness of the vaccine wears off in relation to the time elapsed since the vaccine was taken, and also that the vaccine isn’t as effective in elderly patients. “Experts” contest this data.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/livebl...-transmission/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel...nt-believe-it/

Interestingly the BBC also leading the news this morning on a vaccine related story about the interval between Pfizer jabs. Only interesting because the entire story is based off a preprint paper. Good enough for the BBC, but not good enough for EF

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57929953
I wonder if the two stories here actually aren’t related? Israel had a 3 week interval between doses whereas the UK, by focussing on giving everyone a first dose, had intervals of 8-12 weeks. Perhaps this is the reason for the difference in data out of the UK and Israel? If there is a relationship then it doesn’t bode well for Switzerland that stuck ridgedly to 4 weeks between doses!

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It’s called immunosenescence. I’m not sure why anyone would be surprised by this, the immune system declines with age and vaccines are generally less effective in older people.
I should have written the efficacy is dropping in elderly patients to what is expected.
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Old 23.07.2021, 08:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Israel now reporting that latest data suggest that the effectiveness of the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine at preventing transmission is at 40%. Also reports from Israel that the effectiveness of the vaccine wears off in relation to the time elapsed since the vaccine was taken, and also that the vaccine isn’t as effective in elderly patients. “Experts” contest this data.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/livebl...-transmission/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel...nt-believe-it/

Interestingly the BBC also leading the news this morning on a vaccine related story about the interval between Pfizer jabs. Only interesting because the entire story is based off a preprint paper. Good enough for the BBC, but not good enough for EF

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57929953
Actually, the "experts" have valid point like "the number of people factored into the calculations is so small that small margins of error can cause a major impact on the bottom line. The overall number of seriously ill in Israel is 63 out of a population of ca. 9 million."

From what I remember out of my ancient statistics studies one needs a sample size of at least 385 for a 95% confidence level with this size of population.
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Old 23.07.2021, 08:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wonder if the two stories here actually aren’t related? Israel had a 3 week interval between doses whereas the UK, by focussing on giving everyone a first dose, had intervals of 8-12 weeks. Perhaps this is the reason for the difference in data out of the UK and Israel? If there is a relationship then it doesn’t bode well for Switzerland that stuck ridgedly to 4 weeks between doses!
I think this was a matter of vax availability and adjustment to the growing positive numbers. CZ had 6wks that they quickly adjusted to 21 days between Pfizers during the summer break because they expect big mess around Sept/Oct.

UK has abandoned measures, it is a bit logical if everyone's vaxed and delta keeps people out of hospitals.

I think what we see is mainly people who learned to take into account the math models - delays between infection and mortality, how R works, how different the strains are, delays between vax and real protection, stats of risk for different groups and how it affects those who are vaxed but at risk and aren't isolating. I am really curious to see how the UK put up with their approach, it worked in Sweden, the opposite (supper strict disciplined measures) didn't work in CZ. The biggest difference was - import from abroad plus health and obesity for people over 50. The UK has ran through their risks already, I think the decision to reopen but keep the influx from abroad closed via quarantines, is a good one. We don't like it since it limits us from going there, but.
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