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  #27721  
Old 26.07.2021, 10:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Also interesting is that cases in the UK are dropping like a stone, AFTER they removed virtually all lockdown restrictions (including masks).
Don't you think this can be related to the school/summer holidays?
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  #27722  
Old 26.07.2021, 10:48
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Re: Coronavirus

Iceland 80-90% people over 16 vaccinated now seeing another surge in Covid cases.

https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir...on-in-iceland/

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-c...ories/iceland/

Gibraltar, all adults fully vaccinated back in April, has also seen a spike in cases.
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  #27723  
Old 26.07.2021, 10:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Iceland 80-90% people over 16 vaccinated now seeing another surge in Covid cases.

https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir...on-in-iceland/

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-c...ories/iceland/

Gibraltar, all adults fully vaccinated back in April, has also seen a spike in cases.
At the point that the majority are vaccinated, is the goal still a reduction in cases or a reduction in deaths and hospitalisations?
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  #27724  
Old 26.07.2021, 10:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Also interesting is that cases in the UK are dropping like a stone, AFTER they removed virtually all lockdown restrictions (including masks). Some models predicted they'd hit 100,000 cases a day following so called "Freedom Day". Shouldn't be surprising really, we've seen the same story in Sweden, Texas, Florida etc. Basically, the virus will do what viruses do. We can expect another wave of cases in autumn/winter despite vaccinations. This will be the new normal that we have to get used too. Lockdown restrictions and masks mandates have been for nothing.
Please show any evidence as to what you wrote in bold is true ...

Here is some information on the model examples you are giving:

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-po...delta-variant/

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/new...r-16338745.php

https://www.wsj.com/articles/florida...ge-11627131600
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  #27725  
Old 26.07.2021, 10:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Don't you think this can be related to the school/summer holidays?
It's not related to any one specific thing, the main factors driving cases are seasonality/weather, viral evolution (mutations), level of population immunity (natural or through vaccination) and behaviour of people carrying the virus. Each of these factors drives the R rate and their impact changes through time.

For example at the moment, vaccines, the weather drive and maybe holidays could be driving down the R rate, but the transmissibility of the Delta variant could be driving it up.

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At the point that the majority are vaccinated, is the goal still a reduction in cases or a reduction in deaths and hospitalisations?
Priority should always be a reduction in deaths and hospitalisations, and here the vaccines are holding up. They are working, but there are crazy people out there who want to introduce vaccine passports for entering cafes, restaurants, cinemas etc. There is absolutely no justification for them considering that vaccines will not prevent infection or transmission. Even worse, there are people out there who believe we should vaccinate children in order to "protect" others. Each person needs to be free to weigh up the risks and benefits of being vaccinated for themselves.
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  #27726  
Old 26.07.2021, 11:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Please show any evidence as to what you wrote in bold is true ...

Here is some information on the model examples you are giving:

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-po...delta-variant/

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/new...r-16338745.php

https://www.wsj.com/articles/florida...ge-11627131600
That another wave has come along does not prove that lockdowns and mask mandates worked. How do you explain what happened between the lifting of the restrictions at the end of last year and now?
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  #27727  
Old 26.07.2021, 11:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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That another wave has come along does not prove that lockdowns and mask mandates worked. How do you explain what happened between the lifting of the restrictions at the end of last year and now?
Common sense will of course explain that there will be a lull in virus cases once everyone has been locked up for months. New variants will emerge and then the case numbers will explode once there are no restrictions to combat them.

Perfect example of why lockdowns work is India - now we are all having to deal with the Delta variant due to their ridiculous lifting of restrictions far too early.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...han-the-first/

I am no longer pro-lockdown since all who want to be vaccinated, can in this country - but I am sick & tired of you saying that restrictions don't work when they clearly do.
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  #27728  
Old 26.07.2021, 11:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Iceland 80-90% people over 16 vaccinated now seeing another surge in Covid cases.

https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir...on-in-iceland/

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-c...ories/iceland/

Gibraltar, all adults fully vaccinated back in April, has also seen a spike in cases.
Its clear that some natural infections will be required to get to herd immunity. You could see that from the UK data showing positivity of fully vaccinated people running at 1/5 of the unvaccinated and R(0) being greater than 5.
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  #27729  
Old 26.07.2021, 11:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Common sense will of course explain that there will be a lull in virus cases once everyone has been locked up for months. New variants will emerge and then the case numbers will explode once there are no restrictions to combat them.

Perfect example of why lockdowns work is India - now we are all having to deal with the Delta variant due to their ridiculous lifting of restrictions far too early.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...han-the-first/

I am no longer pro-lockdown since all who want to be vaccinated, can in this country - but I am sick & tired of you saying that restrictions don't work when they clearly do.
When the number of cases in Switzerland make a downturn again in the next couple of weeks despite there being no change in the number of non-pharmaceutical interventions, will you finally admit that I'm right?
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  #27730  
Old 26.07.2021, 11:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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When the number of cases in Switzerland make a downturn again in the next couple of weeks despite there being no change in the number of non-pharmaceutical interventions, will you finally admit that I'm right?
Its going to be weeks and weeks before that happens. If it happens within the next 3 weeks ill tip my hat off to you, but I suspect it will be at least 4, and possibly more like 5 or 6. That gets us towards the autumn, so it could be a bit painful and stay high for a while.

Incidentally, I think all this talk about herd immunity misses the point. It doesn't really look possible to get to herd immunity for this disease in the traditional sense. Hence Tony's posts about Iceland and Gibraltar (which are fair even if some of his other comments are outlandish). Rather we will drift towards lower and lower mortality and more and more seasonality with more predictable patterns. It will become endemic and in time another OC43. Already in the UK it looks no worse than flu, whereas obviously earlier in the pandemic it was several times nastier. I think in time with repeated exposure (by infection or vaccination), it will be more like a cold.

So those hoping to never encounter the disease - not going to happen. All you can do is get vaccinated. The immunocompromised will have to take their chances, or live life locked up until they are better, at least over the winter. To be honest - that's not much different to before covid.

That's not to say we can't have restrictions in the short term whilst we are still in something that looks more like a pandemic than an endemic disease (in Switzerland I think that's still the case, in the UK somewhere in the middle, in Gibraltar its endemic...)
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  #27731  
Old 26.07.2021, 11:27
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Re: Coronavirus

I know someone who meets 100s of people daily from all over the world. He is in his 40s and never caught Corona. As a result he is not interested in the vaccine.

I asked him if it was worth risking, he said that he could get stabbed one day, does that mean he should wear a knights armour for rest of his life
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  #27732  
Old 26.07.2021, 11:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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I know someone who meets 100s of people daily from all over the world. He is in his 40s and never caught Corona. As a result he is not interested in the vaccine.

I asked him if it was worth risking, he said that he could get stabbed one day, does that mean he should wear a knights armour for rest of his life
That's a ludicrous analogy.
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  #27733  
Old 26.07.2021, 11:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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I know someone who meets 100s of people daily from all over the world. He is in his 40s and never caught Corona. As a result he is not interested in the vaccine.

I asked him if it was worth risking, he said that he could get stabbed one day, does that mean he should wear a knights armour for rest of his life
Should? No, very awkward to don full plate yourself, he might be more interested in a gambeson if he want's to keep the medieval vibe going. They look quite smart in comparison, less risk of chafing as well.
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Old 26.07.2021, 11:32
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Re: Coronavirus

I cant believe what I am reading Seem to be, anything sells but fear &paranoia are the sweetest cocktail.

How people can still believe , "the mask protects".."you are not ill, you're fully healthy and working like a dog everyday but ..but, you have the virus and it'll jump onto someone and then it'll jump from that someone to a vulnarable person".. is out of any logic to me.

What hurts so much is how some totally false theory when it's launched by the officials (all politiicians are having big corruption files) to turn you , against the ones around you is so easy. And using some well known techniques that have been used by the church/religion, the concept of guilt.

Therefore, we came to the point, where workers who are not sitting on their sofa like we do.. but are working on a site, physical work, etc.. are supposed to all wear a cloth on their face, like slaves in the ancient times, and cope, pass out, gasp for air... If they were ill from this nasty virus that is sooo nasty&contagious we wonder how come they're not ill but fully fit for work ?

And no, you can not have a virus, be healthy and work hard but the virus will jump to someone. And that someone is going to have the virus and carry it and the virus will jump now on to someone who is ill and it'll be very hard for them to deal with it . No,this does not exist in medecine. And the cloth will not - certainly not - block any virus if there is one (expelled by coughing or sneezing)

I wish we have some daily mental yoga (paid by the government) that'll clean up this mess they've created in just less than a year. Fear, blame, blaming others because they breathe, or they go to have a drink in the pub... blame them because their cloth fell off...
And for this whole year, no we havent seen workers falling dead.. at walmart, tesco, migros, carrefour.. construction sites, homeless people, drivers, bakers, cleaners... those people who are in contact with hundreds of other "ill""but healthy" ppl ... still, we talk as if every week we have 5 deaths of the virus (cashiers from coop or bus controllers or train station cleaners etc)

Ferguson&Drosten&fauci team made fools out of people and are having a big laugh.
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  #27735  
Old 26.07.2021, 11:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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When the number of cases in Switzerland make a downturn again in the next couple of weeks despite there being no change in the number of non-pharmaceutical interventions, will you finally admit that I'm right?
I will never admit that you are right because you aren't. You convince yourself that you are by cherry picking evidence in your favor and putting a spotlight on them.

Case in point - showing rising case numbers around the world and then saying "lockdowns and vaccines don't work".

Edit: If you are ever right and I am wrong, I will gladly admit to it. Deal?

Last edited by Susie-Q; 26.07.2021 at 11:57.
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  #27736  
Old 26.07.2021, 11:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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We can expect another wave of cases in autumn/winter despite vaccinations.
A bit like the flu really?

Not that I'm suggesting it's the same thing or mechanism mind you.

But with new variants coming out all the time there will always be a catch-up game.
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  #27737  
Old 26.07.2021, 12:06
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Re: Coronavirus

My Moderna vaccine was manufactured in Spain, how about you guys? I thought they were getting manufactured in Switzerland?
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Old 26.07.2021, 12:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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My Moderna vaccine was manufactured in Spain, how about you guys? I thought they were getting manufactured in Switzerland?
Only partially manufactured:

“Lonza has sites in the US and Switzerland and is helping Moderna supply vaccines outside of the US. Under the terms of the agreement, the companies plan to establish manufacturing suites at Lonza’s facilities in the United States and Switzerland as part of a ten year plan. The partnership intends to establish additional production suites across Lonza’s worldwide facilities, supplying 1 billion doses of vaccine per year worldwide

Recipharm's drug manufacturing site in France is undertaking fill and finish services for countries outside of the US.

In Spain, pharmaceutical lab Rovi in Madrid has installed a new production line for filling and packaging of millions of doses of Moderna’s vaccine to supply markets outside the U.S.A.“
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Old 26.07.2021, 12:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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A bit like the flu really?

Not that I'm suggesting it's the same thing or mechanism mind you.

But with new variants coming out all the time there will always be a catch-up game.
If that's the case how are the governments going to impose a yearly jab? It is already difficult to have people vax on their own, so much that France and others are imposing. And that's just the beginning. If CV strains change fast, I cannot see revaxing entire countries regularly. WHO is busy fighting with China over investigations of the virus origins, despite China making sure who was voted in as a director. A yearly revax is going to be so expensive, and will demolish the poor countries. CZ just announced sending a couple million doses to poor countries, other places do and will do the same. It amounts to little though. There is still an entity making extra billions on cheap health products, masks and respirators past 18 months.
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Old 26.07.2021, 12:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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I will never admit that you are right because you aren't. You convince yourself that you are by cherry picking evidence in your favor and putting a spotlight on them.

Case in point - showing rising case numbers around the world and then saying "lockdowns and vaccines don't work".

Edit: If you are ever right and I am wrong, I will gladly admit to it. Deal?
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Priority should always be a reduction in deaths and hospitalisations, and here the vaccines are holding up. They are working


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Its going to be weeks and weeks before that happens. If it happens within the next 3 weeks ill tip my hat off to you, but I suspect it will be at least 4, and possibly more like 5 or 6. That gets us towards the autumn, so it could be a bit painful and stay high for a while.
Whether it's 2-3 weeks of 5 or 6 doesn't really change the thrust of the argument that when cases do eventually start to decline here then it won't be due to NPIs rather the Delta wave having run its course. The Netherlands daily case rate peaked and declined very abruptly, we could see a similar thing happen here.

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A bit like the flu really?

Not that I'm suggesting it's the same thing or mechanism mind you.

But with new variants coming out all the time there will always be a catch-up game.
Exactly that, we can expect to see waves of Covid returning just like we see the flu every year, vaccine or no vaccine. The important thing is that the vulnerable have the access to the vaccine and everyone else just gets on with their lives.
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