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  #341  
Old 09.02.2020, 13:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes a lot of might be, since that is exactly the point of that article, due to all the "might be's" there currently is no way to estimate a fatality rate for this virus. It could be much higher, it could be much lower. There is simply no way to tell yet.

But stating it has a 2% fatality rate is as dumb as stating it has a recovery rate of 7.67%
if death rate is 2%, recovery rate is a liiiiitle higher than 7.67%, maybe you missed some math classes back in 2nd grade.
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  #342  
Old 09.02.2020, 13:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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if death rate is 2%, recovery rate is a liiiiitle higher than 7.67%, maybe you missed some math classes back in 2nd grade.
And here you admit you are either trolling or really have no clue at all.

Current numbers:

Confirmed cases: 37.590
Death: 814
Recovered: 2.884

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  #343  
Old 09.02.2020, 13:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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And here you admit you are either trolling or really have no clue at all.

Current numbers:

Confirmed cases: 37.590
Death: 814
Recovered: 2.884

Which basically means you calculated the confirmed 37,59k cases in the dead to calculate the recovery rate of 7.67%? Do you actually realize who blatantly wrong you are? Groaning at my post doesn't change that you're wrong
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  #344  
Old 09.02.2020, 13:26
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Re: Coronavirus

Perhaps coronavirus will wipe out the least intelligent, afterall.
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  #345  
Old 09.02.2020, 13:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes a lot of might be, since that is exactly the point of that article, due to all the "might be's" there currently is no way to estimate a fatality rate for this virus. It could be much higher, it could be much lower. There is simply no way to tell yet.

But stating it has a 2% fatality rate is as dumb as stating it has a recovery rate of 7.67%
I have to agree. Just because "only" 2% of people have reportedly died so far that doesn't mean more people haven't died that weren't counted in the official stats. Tens of thousands of people have been very ill and healthcare systems have been stretched to the max.

An outbreak can still have serious ripple effects even if most of those that get ill survive.

Look at the concerns about the global supply chain and potentially triggering a global economic slowdown.
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  #346  
Old 09.02.2020, 13:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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But stating it has a 2% fatality rate is as dumb as stating it has a recovery rate of 7.67%
...
Current numbers:

Confirmed cases: 37.590
Death: 814
Recovered: 2.884
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Do you actually realize who blatantly wrong you are?
He's only pointing out that with the above numbers, which imply there are still 34000 people still suffering from the virus, the conclusions of fatality and recovery rates are not reliable. Nothing "wrong" about that, as he's not making any claims about the numbers.
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  #347  
Old 09.02.2020, 13:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Which basically means you calculated the confirmed 37,59k cases in the dead to calculate the recovery rate of 7.67%? Do you actually realize who blatantly wrong you are? Groaning at my post doesn't change that you're wrong
Can you rephrase the bold part? Since I have no clue what you are trying to say.

Calculate confirmed cases in the dead

(Death/confirmed)x100 = 2.17%
(Recovery/confirmed)x100 = 7.67%

Both are equally dumb and useless at this stage, since there are still 33.892 confirmed cases of whom we do not know how many will recover or end up in a bodybag. This besides all the people who are infected but have not been tested yet or are awaiting results.

And you tell me I missed some math classes.....

Last edited by Ace1; 09.02.2020 at 14:09. Reason: Removed aggrevating/insulting text. Please desist.
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  #348  
Old 09.02.2020, 14:01
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Re: Coronavirus

The only thing that we know from the current data is that the current fatality which is circa 2% and hasn't really moved much for the past week or so. Outside of mainland China it even lower, today I checked the FT and they report 301 cases and 2 deaths. Let the mathematicians here calculate the death rate.

There's no reason to believe, no data to suggest, that the death rate will change substantially in any direction. These are the simple facts. All other extrapolations are based on the extent to which one is able to differentiate true signal from polluting noise.
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  #349  
Old 09.02.2020, 14:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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There's no reason to believe, no data to suggest, that the death rate will change substantially in any direction. These are the simple facts. All other extrapolations are based on the extent to which one is able to differentiate true signal from polluting noise.
Or able to recognize that sick people can die, and dead people dont recover. Common sense gives reason to believe that the death rate will change substantially- it can only go up.

I dont have a link but i had read about a Chinese govt press conference yesterday where they mentioned that 'serious' cases had a 6% survival rate and 'critical' cases had a 1% survival rate. There are currently over 6,000 official cases in those categories
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  #350  
Old 09.02.2020, 14:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Common sense gives reason to believe that the death rate will change substantially- it can only go up.
Of course that's wrong. Assuming an incubation period of up to 14 days, China is most probably undercounting the number of infections. If the number of infections has been under-counted, the circa 2% death rate will fall

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ing-infections
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  #351  
Old 09.02.2020, 14:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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The only thing that we know from the current data is that the current fatality which is circa 2% and hasn't really moved much for the past week or so. Outside of mainland China it even lower, today I checked the FT and they report 301 cases and 2 deaths. Let the mathematicians here calculate the death rate.

There's no reason to believe, no data to suggest, that the death rate will change substantially in any direction. These are the simple facts. All other extrapolations are based on the extent to which one is able to differentiate true signal from polluting noise.
There are currently 360 cases confirmed elsewhere, 24 recovered and 1 Death in Hong Kong (HongKong is counted as outside china in the stats), and one death in Thailand.

Now tell me, by what logic can one extrapolate from the total numbers the fatality rate, meaning that the recovery rate is of by a huge whopping 90.16 percentage points (or to sound dramatic simply of by more than 1000%) and is one not allowed to use the exact same logic for the recovery rate? That would only work out if you assume that of the current patients almost all will survive, given that you state that there is no reason to believe the death rate will not change a lot you seem to believe this...
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  #352  
Old 09.02.2020, 14:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Of course that's wrong. Assuming an incubation period of up to 14 days, China is most probably undercounting the number of infections. If the number of infections has been under-counted, the circa 2% death rate will fall

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ing-infections
I agree, but the same underreporting would also be true for death rates. On top of that is the attribution of coronavirus deaths to other causes due to lack of testing or face-saving. Those who had never been tested and 'died of pneumonia'
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  #353  
Old 09.02.2020, 15:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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  #354  
Old 09.02.2020, 15:52
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Re: Coronavirus

How well Monty Python understood human race. And while I've known Monty Python for a long time - I always thought it was comedy. How wrong can one be.

Now we only hope that the Chinese read EF, so they can die according to the numerous calculations made on here and all is well.
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  #355  
Old 09.02.2020, 17:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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I agree, but the same underreporting would also be true for death rates. On top of that is the attribution of coronavirus deaths to other causes due to lack of testing or face-saving. Those who had never been tested and 'died of pneumonia'
He did say that he suggests that people worry as much as they want to, not that the risk is low or not worth worrying about. We all risk differently, don't we, so should worry or not accordingly. People going through airports, etc..

New infections always cause concerns since the way they will mutate is uknown.

The case of otherwise healthy 34yr old MD who dies (after whistle blowing) is worrysome. I bet it is not just mostly elderly males with previous med condition who die of this.

Considering how many people are in critical state and will be, I don't think it as banal as the the math or stats/ratio seem here on EF. There are many latent medical conditions we might not know about, anyways. Saying an extra dose of new virus is ok because the good old flu kills more people is like saying extra earthquake is ok because it is milder than a mofo one that we regularly have. Nope. It is an extra and it is not good for anyone. I wouldn't panic but I'd avoid crowds and tourist areas.
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  #356  
Old 09.02.2020, 17:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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You are not judging?...

...You may think people are "overreacting"...
You're twisting my words and reading something that wasn't intended. People will react how they will react. That's just human nature. I'm just surprised that the two particular individuals I quoted are taking precautions. I fully expected them to be more blasé about the whole thing.

As I said in an earlier post, I realised I'm becoming cautious because I was unusually relieved to stumble upon masks in our keller. Our exercise machines are in the keller and I spotted what I thought were masks whilst midway through a session. It was all I could think about through the last 20mins of the session, but I kept checking myself, wondering where they'd come from, what type they were, etc... and realising that a little nugget of concern has weedled it's way into my head. Low and behold, we've got at least one pair of 3M N95's and eye masks left over from decorating.
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  #357  
Old 09.02.2020, 17:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just because "only" 2% of people have reportedly died so far that doesn't mean more people haven't died that weren't counted in the official stats.
Particularly when you consider how many millions of people are currently in self-isolation and may be living alone.
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  #358  
Old 09.02.2020, 17:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Particularly when you consider how many millions of people are currently in self-isolation and may be living alone.
And with hospitals full and turning people away, the situation could be horrendous.
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  #359  
Old 09.02.2020, 18:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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I have to agree. Just because "only" 2% of people have reportedly died so far that doesn't mean more people haven't died that weren't counted in the official stats. Tens of thousands of people have been very ill and healthcare systems have been stretched to the max.

An outbreak can still have serious ripple effects even if most of those that get ill survive.

Look at the concerns about the global supply chain and potentially triggering a global economic slowdown.
But a global economic slowdown is a positive thing. All this pumped up consumerism shit.
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  #360  
Old 09.02.2020, 23:14
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Re: Coronavirus

I bet China will stick with 2.1% death rate every time they disclose new stats. Just like their GDP growth numbers which miraculously always hover around the same %.

Just to be safe, I stocked up on 9mm and .45 ammo this weekend: 5000 rounds of each.

Also bought a large supply of bottled water and canned foods and stuff and have 500 facemasks and goggles arrived tomorrow. Already have a fair amount of physical gold at home.

Prepare for the worst, especially now that cases are starting to appear in Europe.
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